2013-14 Individual Players Recap and Predictions

How the players did this season and what to expect going forward.

DeAndre Kane - He finished All-Big 12 first team, Newcomer of the Year, All-American honorable mention and still might have been underappreciated even by his own fanbase.  I've said all year long he's been the best player on the team and in the conference and he didn't disappoint in the postseason, averaging 17 points, 7 rebound and 6 assists.  He flirted with a triple double in each of the last two games.  Royce White was flashier, but Kane impacted the game in all facets the same way and had more team success.  He's my pick for best transfer of the Hoiberg era, and just had the greatest single season of the Hoiberg era.

Melvin Ejim - Looking over some of my previous posts, I noted where Melvin had 70 points and 30 rebounds over two games.  That's silly.  Ejim might see his jersey retired some day based on his career numbers and achievements, but for that one week, he was as good as any player in ISU history.  In recent memory, Marcus Fizer is the only player that would have been even capable of putting up a stat line like this over two games.  And before that you're probably talking Abdul-Aziz and Alexander, both of whom have their jerseys in the rafters.

Georges Niang - Georges took a big step forward with his game.  He continued to improve his conditioning, averaging 31 MPG in his last 4, scoring 20 PPG in that stretch.  Niang might have been the 3rd best player on the team this year, but he's the one opposing fan bases know about.  With Kane and Monte, he didn't have to play as much point-forward as I thought he would at this point last year, but they still ran plenty of offense through him.  Niang was the one who kept the team going when they were stuck in the mud and was the one to get buckets at the end of games.  He should be the #1 scoring option next year, and with the addition of McKay will get some help on the defensive end.  20 points per game and an increase in assists would put Georges right at the line between first and second team All-Big 12, depending how the team finishes. 

Monte Morris - Matt Thomas was the freshman starting at the beginning of the year, but Monte Morris was the starter at the end.  He played 32 minutes combined in their two big non-conference games against Michigan and BYU and in the postseason averaged 32 minutes/game.  Monte came on as perhaps the team's best defender and showed the ability to score too, averaging 10.6 per game in the postseason.  Most of his assists early in the season came in the flow of the game but by the end he started creating a little more, while still keeping his turnovers down.  I'll reiterate my prediction that he'll be at least third team All Big 12 next year.

Dustin Hogue - Wow.  Who knew he had that type of game in him?  I bet even he wouldn't have predicted that type of scoring outburst.  His big night (along with DeAndre Kane) kept ISU in that game with UCONN and gave the Cyclone fan base something to be excited about heading into next year.  He had a Ejim '12-'13 type season this year, and while it's too much to expect him to have a Ejim '13-'14 type season next year, who knows.  He averaged 17.6 PPG and 34 MPG in the postseason.  I thought he could have been named honorable mention All-Big 12 this year and that should be his floor next year.


Naz Long - 2014 will forever be known for the birth of 3sus of Nazareth.  Slaying OSU not once by twice, and extending the season for one more game, Naz provided more heroics per minute played than anyone I can remember.  That he was even on the floor to make those big shots was either incredible foresight by Hoiberg or extremely good luck.  Either way, we'll take it.  He justified the swagger shown by Kane and Niang but was humble and deferential in post game interviews.  His peacekeeping ability with Kane was an underrated aspect of the season.  Often when Kane started getting worked up, Naz was there to step in front of him and let him vent.  It's an impressive trait for someone whose roll was undefined to start the year.  And a big reason why the transfer "experiment" will continue to work for Iowa State.

Matt Thomas - Matt had a tough year.  Looking back, it's pretty obvious that Monte should have been the freshman starting at the beginning of the year, but since it was Matt, he had some unfair expectations placed on him.  It's tough to be a shooting specialist as the fifth option on the court.  When he got going, he played OK but went through some slumps like any shooter.  Hopefully he'll put in the same work that Naz did last season and get his 3P% up around 35-40%.

Daniel Edozie - I still think we should have seen more of him this season.  This team lacked size at times and could have used his minutes and fouls.  He was great when he played but I think he'll be outside the rotation with the additions of Nader, McKay, Custer and another transfer.

SDW and Gibson - I've seen SDW's name more times since the season ended than any other player on the team.  While it would be nice if he'd make an improvement like Naz, I just don't see it happening.  As a fan, I'm rooting for Thomas to make that leap and would love it if Custer could come in and play ahead of him.  Unfortunately, both of these guys signed on when the team was thin and have been left behind by the team's huge upswing.  It'll be tough for either of these players to move on - Percy is coming into his senior year and SDW has already used his redshirt, but it wouldn't be the first time Fred has seen players leave.  While they don't NEED to cut either, I'd be surprised if both return for next year. 

Calmer (and More Optimistic) Reflections on the 2013-14 Cyclones Season

NOTE:  Just like last year, this thing ran long.  I've broken it up into a couple different posts.

It's only been a week but it seems like a month.  Last Friday, the Iowa State Cyclones played their last game of the 2013-2014 season.  It was hard for some of us to accept, but after some time to reflect and read what the players and others have said, we realize this season was special for all those involved.

This team hit some pretty impressive milestones - winning a preseason tournament, winning the Big 12 tournament, making the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.  It set it's share of all-time records too - longest winning streak (14 games to start the season) and most points scored in a season (2989)  And got close in a couple others - second most games played (36), second most minutes played (7324), second most field goals made (1062), second most 3 pointers made (301), second most rebounds (1387), second most assists (663) third best win percentage of the last 50 years (77.8%), 5th highest ranking (8th).  The Cyclones also have an all-time record over .500 for the first time in their history.

What does it all mean?  This team was as entertaining as any since Johnny Orr was the coach and right at the top of most entertaining in all of college basketball this year.  There were "big" question marks heading into this year, just like heading into last.  All they've done is score more points, and win more games.  Scoring went from 73 in 2011-12 to 79 last year to 83PPG this year, leading all major conference schools again.  If we've learned anything since Fred has come back home, it's that his teams get better each year.  Replacing 60%, 70% of scoring and minutes, doesn't matter. 

Hoiberg has also started to dispel the conventional wisdom that you can't score points and win important basketball games.  You don't need to average 50 points to win championships.  I think next year, the Cyclones start to prove you can score a lot of points and play defense too.  Monte brought it against one of the best guards in the nation and Hogue guarded Wiggins pretty well in their meetings.  Adding McKay will add a shot blocking dimension they haven't had and Nader adds a fourth forward to the rotation, easing some defensive assignments for Georges.  Looking back, I was reminded that ISU went from a 6 man rotation last year to 7 guys this year, and it looks like they'll have 8 for next year.  That'll be depth that isn't watered down.

My friend, a Kansas fan, made the remark that if you really wanted to play in a NBA style offense, as a lot of kids say they do, there's nowhere better than Iowa State under Fred Hoiberg.  He's also the one that gives Niang a lot of praise.  Iowa State's profile within the Big 12 is starting to rise and nationally there's been some favorable press too.  The big game against Michigan early in the year really kickstarted all of it.  Getting Dickie V on our side doesn't hurt, and respected college basketball pundits like Fran Fraschilla have been effusive with praise too. 

The next step is obviously a Big 12 regular season championship.  ISU needs to be the team to dethrone Kansas.  It was a closer race this year than a lot of people expected but the Cyclones will need to at least split with them next year to truly keep it interesting down the stretch.  At first, I thought the double round-robin schedule was good for the Cyclones because they can get used to seeing the elite talent that teams like Texas bring in every year, but I now realize ISU is the team getting scouted.  Losses to WVU and Baylor in their second matchups show this.  It can be expected that teams will slow down the offense the second time which is why defense will be important to pull out these types of games and win enough for a Big 12 championship.

At this time last year, I wrote the following:

BIG PREDICTIONS

If good season, another 23-11.

If great season, 26-9.

- ISU finishes 3rd in the Big 12 - validating Fred's pay.  7 seed in NCAA.  Fred wins two to make it to Sweet Sixteen.

If great season scenario - ISU competes with KU for regular season and tournament championship.  Gets a 3 seed.  If 3 seed, Elite Eight. 

Well, the Cyclones had a great season, didn't they?  At one point I commented this could be the greatest Iowa State team ever, and by the records listed above and the success they had in the postseason, I'd say it was the second best team of the last 50 years behind only 1999-00.  Now they didn't really compete for the Big 12 regular season title, and missed the Elite Eight, but did win the Big 12 tournament and had more wins and fewer losses than my most optimistic of predictions. 

The ceiling has been raised, so too has the baseline.  I'd be surprised if we saw more than a single-digit number of losses.  Wins in the upper 20's is the new expectation, and with records like that, ISU will be competing for conference championships and the big one in the near future.

Way Too Early Reactions

I was wrong, dead wrong about Iowa State cruising to a victory.  I felt like Napier could play that good but didn't expect two others to hit jumpers like that too.  The Cyclones got straight up beat in the first half.  Every jumper fell for UCONN and every close look rimmed out for ISU.  Or so it seemed.  They were on a different level.

I thought ISU would come out different in the second half, and to an extent, they did.  The action made more open looks to the basket.  Dustin Hogue took beast mode to a whole 'nother level with 34 points total.  But UCONN switched their game up too.  Instead of settling for the long jumpers, they got the ball into the paint and scored some easy buckets.

Here's where I'm disappointed.  Kane guarded Napier for much of the first half.  Napier had whatever he wanted.  Morris guarded Napier most of the second half, and I don't remember Napier getting much of anything.  In fact, I think Morris won more than he gave up.  So why so long to make the switch?

In the second half, UCONN moved away from the jumper and started attacking the rim.  ISU has no rim protectors and UCONN kept making bucket after bucket low.  Why wasn't Edozie in late to at least force fouls?  I get they wanted offense but Thomas attempted one three point field goal.

As much as it pains me to say this, I think Coach Hoiberg got outcoached.  UCONN's offense in the first half torched the defense with the jumper.  And in the second half, ISU got worked down low.  I thought I'd be the last to say this but Coach Ollie made the adjustments and Hoiberg didn't  That's probably an unpopular opinion but one that I'll stick by.

Fully loaded (with Georges) I think ISU rolls UCONN.  There were obvious stretches in the first half where the Cyclones offense was stagnant and I think Niang would have pushed through that.  His high post looks and moves would have created trouble for the UCONN bigs.  But it wasn't to be.

The Iowa State Cyclones got beat tonight by a better team.  No ref shenanigans.  No questionable clock calls.  They just got beat.  But a better Cyclone team will emerge next year.  And I can't wait.  

Predictions for a Sweet Sixteen

Iowa State made it through the first round of the big tournament, not unscathed, but victorious.  ISU turned a close game against NCCU into a blowout and a close loss against UNC into a win.

I've reviewed a couple of the predictions I wrote last year and I'm excited to recap this year but it'll have to wait.  The Cyclones still have more games to win. 

For my preview of the Cyclones SWEET SIXTEEN matchup I'll play off a few of the things I've read lately.  A few of my favorite gems from that "other" Cyclones site.

He is a NBA style coach who makes great in-game adjustments and exploits mismatches.
Kevin Ollie is the same style coach who also has a ton of NBA experience.. The chess match between these coaches is one of the biggest aspect of the game. -some UCONN fan

Here's the deal, a few years ago I would have agreed.  I didn't think Fred would be able to coach.  Last year I might have agreed it would be a fair matchup.  This year?  Fred will abuse Ollie.  Ollie's in his second year coaching.  Fred's in his fourth year going on 34th.  Sure they both had extended NBA careers as role players.  And of course they're buddies who are the exact same age.  But the similarities stop there.  I was yelling for a timeout at the end of the UNC game but ISU didn't need it, everyone already knew what the play was going to be.  Fred has taken his knack for imbound plays and extended it to all of coaching.

One fact the many Iowa State fans might not know.. 3 of UCONN's starters have won a National Championship and have big game experience these are Seniors who have been through the wars, they are not 19 yo. one and done players... Not like the in-fighting babies you whoped up on in 2012.

So I looked it up.  One of those 3 starters (Napier) started that game in 2012.  Boatwright played 26 minutes.  And those "babies" who started are now three players in the NBA.  In the words of Coach Orr "And we kicked your ass!"

I'm sure Napier and Boatwright are better players as upperclassmen.  But I'll bet that Fred's team is better than two years ago too, even without Niang. 

I saw a shot chart for Napier, look for Monte or Naz to shade him hard to his left to force him right.  Hopefully he takes pull ups off this instead of finding teammates. 

ISU wins and it isn't all that close.  The Cyclones knock down shots at the beginning of the game for a change, stretch it to a double digit lead, let it slack a little bit to start the second and finish the game out strong for a win about like 2012.  They take the crowd out early and keep them out of it.  80-68.

Comparison of My All-Big 12 Teams to the Official Ones and Some Predicitions Too

While anxiously awaiting the start of Iowa State's second season, I'm going to pass the time by seeing how my All-Big 12 team stacked up against the official list.

So I wasn't too far off.  Melvin Ejim won the Big 12 POY award, which is great for him and great for ISU, as well as being one of two unanimous All-Big 12 picks.  As seen in my previous projections, I would have selected DeAndre Kane for the honor.  Working for Ejim were 4 years of starting and production along with All-Academic honors.  Kane leveled off in the second half of the conference season (albeit at a very high level) and being a transfer didn't help.  Both were in my top three with Andrew Wiggins so I'll allow that the coaches made the right call.

Of the top 5, I had 4 on my list, with Marcus Smart being the only omission.  I still don't believe a player who was suspended for three games should be rewarded by making the first team, even if his numbers in the other 15 games were worthy.

Of the top 10, I had 8.  Again, pretty good in my opinion.  The two UT guys were pretty close, but I only had Marcus Foster in my honorable mention list.  After watching ISU play KSU in the tournament, he's got a ton of skill and is the best player on Kansas State.

Thirteen of our players matched on the top three teams.  Clark and Crockett got on by their names.  They're good players but I think others were more deserving.

Twenty seven players in all were honored.  My top 27 matched 23 of the coaches'.  And when you get to the end of the top 30 players, the differences are very small.

Biggest Snubs:  Kyan Anderson - I should be president (and one of few members) of this guy's fan club.  Too bad he had to go play for an historically bad Big 12 team in TCU.  That he was as successful individually as he was, on that team, is a testament to how good of a player he is.  TCU has a good coach and has shown the ability to bring in top talent with Karviar Shepherd so he might have a chance to win some games next year.

Monte Morris - He's going to set a NATIONAL record (even if a short-lived one) in assist to turnover ratio.  As a freshman.  Against a legit schedule.  Starting every game during conference play.  He wasn't one of the more heralded freshmen to enter this year.  And no he wasn't the "lead" guard for ISU, which at 6 foot makes his contributions more impressive.  His assists and steals numbers should improve, but I don't see him being in the top 20 in points (about 13 per game) so my prediction is All-Big 12 third team for him next year.

Dustin Hogue - Again, a transfer, in his case from JUCO, It was too much to ask for all 5 cyclones starters to be on this list out of only 27 players, but his case is there too.  He reminds all of us of Ejim last year, but Ejim led the league in rebounding.  Hogue can do that next year.  He'll still be the 4th or 5th scoring option for the Cyclones (behind Niang, Nader and I think Morris) which will make him more aggressive at rebounding.  Hogue leads the Big 12 in rebounding next year, and makes the All-Big 12 third team.

So at each level, I matched 80% or better.  85% or better without Smart.  I think that's pretty good!  No need to tweak my formula as I thought might be necessary earlier in the year.  

I got it right.  Or the coaches got it right.  Or we just happened to agree.  I've said this before, but the Big 12 is LOADED with talent.  From one and done freshman to multi-year transfers to JUCO transfers to graduate transfers and all the 4 year guys in between, I'd put this conference up against any in terms of talent.

And think about this, while Kansas was led by two one and done freshmen, they failed to get an impact from their transfer Talik Black.  OSU couldn't get it done with a four year guy (Brown) and a lottery pick in Smart.  Baylor the same way (Jefferson and Austin).  Fred won the Big 12 tournament championship with development (4 year player Ejim), graduate transfer Kane, JUCO transfer Hogue, recruitment in Niang and an impact freshman Monte Morris - all in the starting five.  In this one year, Hoiberg has exploited all five avenues for success for a college team.  He's managed to not only have all these players coexist, but thrive and be happy doing it. A coach with his skill set and the whole universe of college eligible players available means there is no limit to what Iowa State can achieve in the future.  They've got a pretty good opportunity in the present too :) 

All Big 12 Final Update

I feel better about this one.

All worked out in the end.  Wiggins made my first team, which was my biggest issue with my previous draft.  Everybody else is about where I'd expect them.  Now we just wait and see how the official teams look.

All Big 12 teams updated March 7th

I'll be honest, I don't love the picks here.  Kane and Ejim are locks for the first team.  And Staten deserves a spot too.  The prevailing opinion is that Wiggins and Embiid are both on the first team as well.  I'd concede Wiggins, as he's been solid, contributing in every statistical category except assists.  I don't fully understand the love for Embiid.  Statistically, his season is pretty similar to Isaiah Austin's last year, which landed Austin on the second team.

Of Brown, Hield and Anderson I think one makes the first team instead of Embiid and I'd guess it's Hield, rewarding OU for their good season.

I still like Smart on the second team.  He'd be a no-brainer for first team if he'd played all season, but the suspension has to count for something.  

All five Cyclone starters are on this list, and I don't think that's unreasonable.  I like Monte on the third team and with two on the first, Niang on the third balances that out a bit.  Houge has been incredibly consistent down the stretch but pretty quiet too.  There are only seven or eight guys who should be in the running for honorable mention tomorrow.

If an Iowa State player is going to be picked Big 12 POY, my vote is still for Kane.  He's produced at the same level as Smart did last year, if not a little higher.  Ejim is a great story, and it'd still be great for ISU but Kane was far and away the best player this year.

Like I said above, I like the people I've got on this list, and in general where they are placed but it looks like I'll need to do some tweaking to my formulas.  I think this year is going to turn out to be a little bit of an anomaly in that there are a bunch of guards producing highly in multiple categories and unfortunately a few of them that aren't playing for great teams.  Depending how it shakes out, I could make the team ranking more important, give Wiggins and Embiid a bump for being lottery picks next year, or maybe try to adjust based on team tempo vs. average tempo of the conference.