Sunday, February 5, 2012

Super Bowl Predictions

Everything I've seen on the field points to a Giants victory in my opinion.  I should be rooting for the NFC as a Bears fan.  The Giants look like this year's version of the Packers.  Why am I picking the Patriots to cover?  Vegas tells me too.

At one point this week 65 percent of the money was on the Giants.  I was a little shocked to see the Patriots open up as a 3.5 point favorite as well.  My first thought was to take the points with the Giants and never look back.  Then I thought back to November when Iowa State opened up as only a 1.5 point favorite at Drake in basketball.  It was a guaranteed lock.  In Vegas, if it looks to good to be true it probably is.  To me, taking the Giants looks too good to be true.  The number has now slipped down to 2.5 and I feel even better about taking the Patriots.

Las Vegas has lost money on two Super Bowls in the last 17 years.  Last year was one of those years.  They know where to set the line.  They are in the business of making money pure and simple.  Add in the fact that the Vegas favorite has won the game at an alarming percentage and I'll take the favorite, even giving the 2.5 points.  

For once, I put my bias aside and looked at the bigger picture.  Am I bound to look utterly stupid?  Of course, but taking a favorite giving 2.5 points is one of my favorite spots to bet.  I am hoping for a Patriots victory by 3-9 points.  With that I would win a friendly wager with a friends that gave me Giants +9.5 (To be fair I gave him 2-1 odds) and I would also win a playoff point spread pool.  My maximum return is 55 dollars.  My maximum loss is 5 dollars.  There is also a scenario in which I win 15 dollars.  I'll take those odds.

Now for the fun part, the prop bets.

Coin Toss- Giants are calling tails.  The coin will land on tails.  Make it 15 in a row for the NFC

First TD- Hakeem Nicks. (8 to 1)

Super Bowl MVP- Wes Welker (12 to 1)

Giselle Bundchen Appearances O/U (1/2)- OVER.  I hope its way over too.  She is easy on the eyes.

First Person/People Super Bowl MVP Thanks- I'll take teammates at 1-1 odds.

Color of Gatorade Dumped: Orange at 5/2 odds.

I'll also learned this week that the "sharps" tend to jump on the low side of O/U prop bets.  It makes sense.  The public loves betting overs, myself included.  For this reason, Vegas can still get action on both sides and there is some value to the under.  Here are three "unders" that I like.

Brandon Jacobs Longest Rush (10.5 yards) -UNDER

Hakeem Nicks Longest Reception (26.5 yards)B- UNDER

Tom Brady Total Rushing Attempts (3)- UNDER

BenJarvus Green-Ellis Rushing Attempts (12.5)- UNDER

Deion Branch Total Receiving Yards (42.5)-  UNDER

So there you go folks.  Its not about what you know, its about what Vegas tells you to do.  Sit back, grab some food, grab some drink and watch the desert smile!

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