I just got back into Kenpom.com, one of my favorite web sites. And its always interesting to follow the Cyclones through the season. Here are the Cyclones preseason numbers.
Rank - 120 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 10-21 (2-16 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 14-17 (5-13 in Big XII)
None of the other statistics have much meaning right now, so lets compare to last years team. The only number I could find was preseason rank from kenpom - 175. So that's an improvement.
Last years' actual results.
Kenpom final ranking - 81
Record - 16-16 (3-13 in Big XII, 12th out of 12)
Is Ken Pomeroy's formula predicting a better season than last year? It's tough to say, without seeing the full preseason numbers from 2010. Coming into the 2010 season, ISU had lost players accounting for 69% of its minutes. Add a new coach and the season's outcome seemed tough to predict. This season, players accounting for 57% of the minutes won't be returning, but the coach stayed the same and ostensibly, the style of play. Pomeroy's preseason predictions should be more accurate for this year's team.
Two teams make a game. Iowa State's opponents could be overrated or underrated, too. That's why the projected aggregate record is a better prediction, which spells an improvement in conference play but a step back overall. And another year without a NCAA bid. Let's hope kenpom.com is wrong just this one time.
No comments:
Post a Comment