Saturday, January 4, 2014

1/4 Bracketology

Since last time:  Updated afternoon of 1/6 to reflect new AP and Coaches Poll and Lunardi updated S-Curve

Iowa State notched five more victories since my last report.  Winning the Diamond Head Invite in Hawaii was huge for the team and their resume.  They kept potential bad losses off the resume by advancing to the winner's bracket and they got two wins (Akron and Boise State) that might end up being quality wins by the end of the year.  They also got their first conference win, and conference ROAD win of the year while keeping their perfect record intact.  This group just keeps winning and their play is much more consistent than it was a year ago.  At the beginning of the year I would have been happy with a NCAA tournament appearance.  I underestimated what Kane brought to the table and I underestimated Hoiberg's ability to coach.  I may edit some of these numbers in the morning as there were a couple of upsets today in college hoops.  Anyway, here we go.

Once again, here is my formula:

Computer Average (1/3)

Poll Average (1/3)
Lunardi S-Curve (1/3)

I will also include updated RPI and BPI information as it does matter to the committee but I don't factor it into my formula.

AP Poll (1/5): 9

Coaches Poll (1/5): 7

Poll Average (8)

Rankings indicate a 4 seed on the verge of a 3 seed.  Rankings at the end of the day don't mean everything but need to be looked at due to the human aspect of seeding the field.

Computer Rankings (Sagarin, KenPom, Massey)

All ratings as of 1/4

KenPom: 13th

Sagarin: 4th
Massey: 5th

Computer Average: 7.3

What is important to consider with the computer rankings is KenPom starts with a preseason ranking and the other two are solely based on what has happened this year.  Both have their advantages and both become fairly accurate as the year goes on. **As we progress through the season these rankings continue to become more and more accurate**

Joe Lunardi S-Curve Ranking (1/6): 8 

When we put these numbers into the formula here is what it spits out:

(8+7.3+8)/ 3= 7.76

These number would indicate a 2 SEED in the NCAA tournament.

Another number to look at now is the LiveRPI.  I will use ESPN's insider RPI for this ranking.  As of 1/4 their RPI number is 3 with 3 top 50 wins.

Along with the RPI is the BPI, which is a little better indicator than the RPI.  That number is very impressive at the moment....#1.  That would indicate a #1 OVERALL seed.  Could you imagine?

Big Wins: Michigan, @BYU, Iowa, Boise State, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Losses: @KU, @Baylor, @OSU, @OU, @Texas

My Prediction: Overall Regular Season Record (25-5, 13-5 in Big 12)

Tournament Prediction: # 2 Seed vs #15 Seed Western Carolina in Milwaukee

Going undefeated in the non-conference was huge.  I thought they needed to do two of four things in the non-conference (win vs Mich, win @BYU, win vs Iowa, win Hawaii invite) to be in good standing on Selection Sunday.  They did all four and succeeded in keeping a bad loss off their resume.\

I don't think a 3 seed is bumping these guys up too much.  Think about it, they are 13-0 with a decent list of wins.  There are plenty of other programs out there right now struggling.  Iowa State should be thinking conference championship at this point in the season.  I don't see a team with this type of resume being seeded too low.  Now that we are in conference play, there should be more movement in rankings, whats considered a good win, etc.  I look forward to hopefully seeing this team climb up Lunardi's S-Curve.  Until next time, #Hoiball.

No comments:

Post a Comment