Monday, December 29, 2014

Bracketology 12/29

Bracketology is back!  I will start by using my tried and true formula from last year and make adjustments as need be.

Here is the formula:
1/3 Human Poll Avg.
1/3 Computer Avg. (KenPom, Massey, Sagarin)
1/3 Lunardi S-Curve

Here are the results thus far:

Our composite ranking would indicate being on the border of a 3 and a 4 seed which I think is pretty accurate right now.  If we think about last year at this time, the Cyclones are further along in the seeding process.  Remember, the selection process is human.  To me, it is a little concerning that the computers are a little less optimistic than the humans but computer rankings aren't fully calibrated in the non-conference portion of the schedule.  Iowa State's strength of schedule hasn't been the greatest and Hoiberg has been messing around with different lineups during blowouts.  The result has been games with closer margins of victory than the computers saw coming.  Conference play will sort a lot of this out.

KenPom Prediction: 21-9 (10-8) w/percentages, 22-8 (11-7) Straight-Up
Massey Prediction: 23-7 (12-6) Straight Up
My Prediction: 24-6 (13-5)

Big Wins: Arkansas, @Baylor, Kansas, Texas, WVU, Baylor, Oklahoma
Jury Still Out Wins: vs Georgia State, vs Alabama, @Iowa
Losses: vs Maryland, @WVU, @KU, @OU, @OSU, @Texas

Tournament Prediction: 3 seed (without Big 12 Reg season or Tourn. Champ) or 2 seed (with either Big 12 Reg season or Tourn. Champ)

Note: My prediction is a little more optimistic than the formula would indicate but its not too far off.  I've been watching a lot of college basketball (probably more than any normal person should) and there just aren't very many great teams out there.  I like Iowa State to stay in the top 12 on the seed line by the end of the season.

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