Wednesday, December 31, 2014

What Can We Expect From McKay Going Forward?

I'm going to do something very, very dangerous on this New Year's Eve.  On a night where everyone is out letting loose and throwing caution to the wind one last time for the year I am going to do the same.  Kids, don't try this at home.  I'm going to take McKay's numbers thus far in just two games and use them to predict his future production.  Why is this dangerous?  Well, I once scored 5 points in a span of 30 seconds in a student vs staff basketball game.  I haven't exactly kept up that pace.  Anyway, here we go!

As I've stated above, I realize its only two games and two games against teams that barely have a pulse (no offense, Drake).  However, this is the data we have to draw on and I don't think McKay's game will change a whole lot based on competition.  He will get garbage points and those don't have a lot to do with defense.  I "extrapolated" the data to show his numbers for 30 minutes.  Do I think he will get 30 minutes a game soon?  Probably not, but those are "starter" minutes and I think McKay will creep closer and closer to that threshold.

vs Drake134.
vs MVSU175.
Season Avg154.

Should we expect to see McKay produce a line of 18/11/3 against better competition?  Probably not, but what if he produces at just 80 percent of that clip?  Here is the line:

Comp. Adj.307.29.614.48.82.4

Still pretty good huh?  Just how good?  Well, here was Melvin Ejim's production in similar criteria last year...

I adjusted Ejim's totals for 30 minutes per game to match McKay's.  Ejim shot a lower percentage, but also shot many more 3pt FGA's than McKay will ever take.  Ejim also contributed in a lot of other ways that McKay might not such as free throw makes and assists, but you get the drift.  McKay is pretty close to Ejim's numbers from last year.  A year in which Ejim won Big 12 Player of the Year.  Look, no one expected McKay to come in and be the Big 12 POY.  Ok, maybe some people did.  But, the point is his numbers are awfully close even after taking 80 percent of their values.

It will be interesting to see how this all correlates on Saturday against much stiffer competition.  Projecting him for 30 minutes is probably a bit high especially considering the pace at which he plays but the point remains, he has produced at a high level thus far.  


  1. It's always risky extrapolating stats, but an interesting exercise. In addition to who he's played against, think about who he's playing with. Most of his time has been spent on the second unit. Playing with Monte should help his offense but Georges is going to get most of the opportunities when they're out there together. The rebounds and blocks look OK but the points are probably a bit high.

    The comparison to Ejim is a good one. Hogue was a better version of Ejim the year before last, and McKay is likely a better version of Hogue from last year.

  2. Great breakdown, and extrapolation! I'm excited to have some size. He'll only get better as he gets more and more minutes, like most Hoiball participants. It's a fun brand of basketball to watch.