Sunday, January 20, 2013

Cyclones NCAA Tourney Hopes Ed. 2

Since last time....

Win vs West Virginia
Win @ TCU

These were two games ISU needed to win to keep their "bad loss" part of the resume squeaky clean.  ISU looked great at times during the West Virginia game.  West Virginia caught on fire from three and just about sent this game to overtime.  I really think the comeback was more of a fluke with WVU uncharacteristically hitting shots than it was a sign of things to come from ISU.  Iowa State then traveled to Fort Worth and took care of business with a terrible TCU team.  It wasn't pretty and ISU didn't play particularly well but when you turn the ball over 16 times and only shoot three free throws on the road yet come away with a 13 point victory its a good sign.

Current Resume:

Overall Record: 13-4
Conference Record: 3-1
Big Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

Ken Pomeroy has ISU predicted to finish the year at 12-6 in conference play based on percentages and also 12-6 based on game-by-game.  This is only a slight improvement from last time.  Its important to keep in mind Ken hasn't been wrong predicting the winner of ISU games all season.  If this holds true ISU would add several big wins to their resume in the coming weeks.  Its also worth noting that Iowa State has jumped from #40 to #30 since the last update in the team rankings.

Looking at Bracket Matrix yields a slight improvement for Iowa State as well..  Here you will find cumulative seed predictions based on 39 bracket projections.  No more need to go different places.  It is all right here and updated daily.  Right now their average seed is an 11.2 (which is good for a 12 seed) and they are "in" in 32 of the 39 predictions.

My Prediction (1/20) **This is based on what I predict will happen, not their resume to date**

I still think Iowa State will pile up the wins in Big 12 play.  The league is just not very good.  ISU could finish as high as 2nd in the conference.  This upcoming Saturday will go a long ways in predicting the rest of the season results and solidifying (hopefully) their resume.  Here are my up to date projections.


Overall Record: 23-8
Conference Record: 13-5 (Losses: @OSU, @OU, @BU, @Kansas, vs Kansas)
Big Wins: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, @Kansas St.
Bad Losses: None (although OU could go from big win to bad loss depending on which way they go)

Overall Seed: 10 (I don't know if their strength of schedule is going to be strong enough for people to buy-in) 

Once again we will know much, much more about not only Iowa State but also their competition after this upcoming week.  Kansas State plays both KU and ISU this week.  Oklahoma's schedule also gets more grueling these next few weeks.  Here's to hoping we are talking about two more victories this time next week!

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