Sunday, January 27, 2013

Cyclones Tourney Hopes Ed. 3

January 27th

Since last time...

Loss @Texas Tech
ISU took one on the chin down in Lubbock and came away with what the tournament committee will consider a "bad loss".  Many Cyclone fans worried this was a sign of things to come and wrote off any NCAA tournament hopes at that point.  That was just foolish.  While it will be a weakness on their resume come March, the loss on the road to Texas Tech hindered the Cyclones chances of making tournament, not destroy them.

Win vs Kansas State
Yesterday the Cyclones turned around and protected their home court with a win over #11 Kansas State.  This should go down as a "quality win" come March.  Now, Kansas State isn't the 11th best team in the nation.  In fact Ken Pomeroy had them at 46th coming into the game.  However, if the Cyclones can continue to protect home court (with all signs indicating they can) they are just a few road wins away from an at-large bid.

Current Resume:

Overall Record: 14-5
Conference Record: 4-2
Big Wins: #11 Kansas State
Bad Losses: @Texas Tech
RPI: 39
BPI: 36

Ken Pomeroy:

The Cyclones today stand at #41 in KenPom's rankings.  Last week at this time they stood at #30.  The Texas Tech loss really did a number to their status at  Last week at this time Pomeroy had the Cyclones predicted at 12-6 in the conference based on both probability and straight up picks.  This week probability has them at 10-8 and straight up at 11-5.

Bracket Matrix:

The Bracket Matrix has ISU in the field in 47 of the 58 (81%) brackets.  This is fairly consistent with the 82 percent they were at last week.  You will notice that as we get closer to March more and more bracket predictions are revealed.  Although these brackets don't guarantee a spot in the field there is something to be said for an increase in sample size.  Bracket Matrix still has them on the 12 seed line.

My Prediction (1/27) **This is based on what I predict will happen, not their resume to date**

I think Iowa State is in a very good spot.  To me, their formula to make the dance centers around protecting their home court, which is something I see them doing.  At most I think they will lose one conference game at home.  They are just going to need to earn a couple of road wins at some point.


Overall Record: 22-7
Conference Record: 12-6 (Losses: @OSU, @OU, @BU, @Kansas, @Texas Tech vs Kansas)
Big Wins: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, @Kansas St.
Bad Losses: Texas Tech
Overall Seed: 10 (I think they will sit around the 10-12 seed line for awhile unless they go 3-1 in their next four) 

Once again we will know much, much more about not only Iowa State but also their competition after this upcoming week.  The next four games ( @OSU, vs Baylor, vs Oklahoma, @KSU) are opportunities to add to the resume.  Going 2-2 in those four games keeps them in the same spot.  Going 3-1 would really go a long way to solidifying their spot in the dance.

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