Thursday, November 21, 2013

ISU Bracketology (11/21)

Wow, what a difference a week makes.  In this case a very, very positive difference.  ISU now has the best two wins in the nation in this young, young season.  What was supposed to be a struggle turned out to be great additions to the resume.  Something ISU did not have a lot of last year was quality wins.  They already have two that will look outstanding on Selection Sunday.  Lets take a look at the numbers.

Season Record (4-0)

Good Wins: Michigan, @BYU
Bad Losses: None
KenPom Rank: 23
AP Rank: 21
Gary Parrish Rank: 14

At this point has ISU favored to win every game until their Big Monday showdown against Kansas.  If this came to fruition the biggest game in Hilton ever would take place.  Obviously they may (and probably will) trip up somewhere along the way but its hard to point out where that might be right now.

Non-Conference Formula:

I said at the beginning of the year ISU would need to of the four ( Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Hawaii Invite).  They already have that.  Now its a matter of keeping bad losses off the resume and winning the rest of their home games.  Finish with one loss in the non-conference and its time to talk about seeding.  Finish with no losses on the non-conference slate and its time to talk about conference title contention (although KU and OSU are realistic favorites).

Projected Non-Conference Slate:

I think ISU stumbles once during the non-conference.  My guess would be against Boise State in a potential championship game in Hawaii.  This means them solidifying their resume with another good win against a possible ranked opponent in Iowa.

Projected Overall Record: 24-8 (Conservative)

Projected Conference Record: 13-5 (Plus one win in Conference Tournament)

Tournament Prediction: 

This could be the first year Hoiberg gets a favorable seed allowing them to do some damage.  This team plays a lot better defense then the last two groups and doesn't rely on the 3-pointer quite as much.  They are not deep and that might cost them a game or two in the conference season.  Its usually hard to justify moving a team up 4 seed lines in just one week but that is what I am going to do.  Back to back wins against Michigan and BYU is all the justification I need.  

#6 Iowa State vs #11 Boise State

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