Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Initial ISU Bracketology

This is the first "bracketology" analysis I will do for the year.  I will continue this throughout the year and hopefully begin to progress to seeding analysis instead of bubble watch.

Season Record (2-0)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
KenPom Rank: 33

The Cyclones have posted back to back 30 point wins for the first time since their Elite 8 run in 2000.  They have jumped several KenPom spots as a result.  A KenPom rank for 33 would indicate that the Cyclones are tournament bound but when you look at their season predictions their resume would indicate bubble.  Most of this is due to the fact that there are not many opportunities for big wins this year in the Big XII.  They will essentially have 6 opportunities in conference play (Kansas, OSU, Baylor).  That makes their games against Michigan, BYU, Iowa and the Hawaii tournament that much more important.  Here is how I see it right now.

Non-Conference Formula

Win 2 of 4 (Michigan, BYU, Iowa, Hawaii Invite)

Conference Formula

Win 2 of 6 vs Kansas, OSU, Baylor
Win 10 of 12 against the rest of the Big XII

Projected Overall Record w/formula 22-8
Projected Conf. Record w/formula 12-6

Obviously things will change dramatically throughout the season.  There may be a few big win opportunities that come up that we don't anticipate.  Teams like Oklahoma or Kansas State could catch fire and cement themselves as tournament teams (although I don't anticipate this).  

Tournament Prediction

I think the above projected overall and conference record is attainable.  I think ISU will get two of the four big ones in non-conference and they could get three of four.  I also think dropping two to the bottom of the Big XII is conservative especially when you consider that 6 of those 12 games are at home.  

My Tournament Prediction: 10 seed vs 7 seed Indiana

1 comment:

  1. 10 seed is better than an 8 or 9, but would like to see them on the other side as a 7 working toward a six.