Sunday, December 15, 2013

Bracketology 12/15

I had thought about waiting until Monday to factor in the new polls and Lunardi's most recent bracket but I don't think ISU's position will change much in the polls and Lunardi released an update S-Curve yesterday.  Once again we revisit Bracketology and ISU is still undefeated (and will be for at least the next week).  What is different is that the Cyclones have added another big time win and one win that just might be a Top 100 RPI win when its all said and done.

Once again, here is my formula:

Computer Average (1/3)
Poll Average (1/3)
Lunardi S-Curve (1/3)

I will also include updated RPI and BPI information as it does matter to the committee but I don't factor it into my formula.

AP Poll (12/9): 17
Coaches Poll (12/9): 16

Poll Average (16.5)

Rankings indicate a 5 seed on the verge of a 4 seed.  Rankings at the end of the day don't mean everything but need to be looked at due to the human aspect of seeding the field.

Computer Rankings (Sagarin, KenPom, Massey)

All ratings as of 12/15

KenPom: 22nd
Sagarin: 5th
Massey: 10th

Computer Average: 12.3

What is important to consider with the computer rankings is KenPom starts with a preseason ranking and the other two are solely based on what has happened this year.  Both have their advantages and both become fairly accurate as the year goes on.

Joe Lunardi S-Curve Ranking (12/14): 18

Lunardi has indicated he sees ISU as a 5 seed with this ranking and I guess we will find out tomorrow.

When we put these numbers into the formula here is what it spits out:

(16.5+12.3+18)/ 3= 15.6

These number would indicate a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament which I think is fairly accurate right now.

Another number to look at now is the LiveRPI.  I will use ESPN's insider RPI for this ranking.  As of 12/15 their RPI number is 11 with 2 top 25 wins.

Big Wins: Michigan, @BYU, Iowa, St.Mary's, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Losses: @KU, @Baylor, @OSU, @OU, @Texas

My Prediction: Overall Regular Season Record (25-5, 13-5 in Big 12)

Tournament Prediction: #4 Seed vs #13 Seed Princeton in Milwaukee

In my opinion ISU has 7 more regular season chances at big wins.  I think they get four of them leaving them with 7 heading into the Big 12 tournament.  Keep in mind ISU had maybe 1 all of last year?  Things are looking good and getting an advantageous seed could be fun to watch with Hoiberg preparing the team.

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