Monday, December 9, 2013

Iowa vs Iowa State Preview: Part I

Iowa State Offense vs Iowa Defense

With the most anticipated Iowa-ISU matchup in a long time I thought I would take the time to do a lengthy preview of this upcoming game.  This part of the preview centers on the matchups when ISU has the basketball and Iowa is on defense.

Iowa State Offense vs Iowa Defense

A look at the numbers....

Iowa State Offensive eFG%:  57.3% (12th in nation)
Iowa Defensive eFG%: 41.5% (8th in nation)

A lot of novice basketball fans will look at field goal percentage.  While this is important its not nearly as important as effective field goal percentage.  Effective field goal percentage takes into account the value of a 3 point basket.  ISU's effective field goal percentage has always been high under Fred Hoiberg mainly due in part to their ability to consistently make three point baskets.  At home, ISU shoots even better.  One thing people have mentioned about this matchup is the high flying offenses.  Well, the defenses aren't far behind.  A HUGE factor in this game is how Iowa chooses to play defense against ISU.

Fred Hoiberg exploits mismatches better than any coach.  If the Hawks go with zone, most likely with Woodbury on the floor, ISU should have several open looks from deep.  If they are falling it could get ugly.  If they aren't, it could get ugly.  If they choose man to man you have to look at who guards Kane.  If for some reason its Gessell, or even Marble look for Kane to work his way to the paint and go to work.  ISU needs a three to fall early to get things rolling.

Advantage: ISU....I think ISU's number is more accurate here as Iowa has played some poor shooting teams and some teams that work the paint more which Iowa can defend fairly well.

Iowa State Offensive Turnover %: 14.5 (21st in nation)
Iowa Defensive Turnover %: 20.4 (65th in nation)

Iowa State has been pretty solid with the ball so far this season.  I am surprised to see Iowa's turnover percentage this low considering their three quarter court press they like to run.  If this game was at Carver I would worry a lot more about this stat, but its not....and I still worry.  We saw ISU struggle with the press at BYU late in the game without some of their starters.  If ISU can successfully break the Iowa press, they earn a big advantage in this game, but that is a big if.

**Also, look for what Iowa does after a made basket.  Since the Tom Davis days that have been extremely good at "finding" the official to pass the ball to while the rest of the team sets up the press.  Technically, this should be a warning and a technical foul but we will see if its treated as such.

Advantage: Iowa...because of the press

Iowa State Offensive Rebounding %: 27.5 (284th in nation)
Iowa Offensive Rebounding % Allowed: 30.8 (134th in nation)

This isn't as huge of a stat because ISU is a good shooting team.  Iowa State will have the rebounding advantage at three of the five spots on the floor when their starters are in there.  If Iowa plays a lot of zone, they may struggle rebounding the basketball.  If they play man, then Kane's rebounding ability will become a big, big factor.  Something to look out for is how many fouls accumulate on rebounds, especially on the ISU side.

Advantage: ISU....Having the defending Big XII rebounding champion and the current Big XII rebounding leader on the floor at the same time is a luxury.

Iowa State Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted %: 27.5 (284th in nation)
Iowa Defensive FT's Attempted/Field Goals Attempted %: 28.3 (13th in nation)

Iowa State does not get to the line very much outside of Kane.  Part of this is their high volume of three point shots and part of it is their lack of a true "banger" on the inside.  If Iowa goes zone there will be even less fouls.  The only thing going for ISU in this aspect is that the game is in Hilton.  Iowa won't get the benefit of the doubt.

Advantage: Push...Iowa has every advantage in this regard but the home court advantage will even this out in my opinion.

I'm really looking forward to the individual matchups that occur out there when ISU has the ball.  The only thing I'm sure Iowa will do is put Gessell on Thomas when he is out there. It just makes too much sense.  Also, when Woodbury is on the floor I just don't understand how Iowa can play man to man defense.  Think what happened against KU last year.  Now take into consideration what kind of a player Woodbury is compared to Whithey.  Whoever Woodbury would have to guard is going to have the ability to come out and shoot it.  Now, what happens when Oleseni is in?  That is a different story.

Finally, lets talk about foul trouble.  If ISU has to go 8 or 9 deep out of necessity this game could take a turn for the worse.  Look for Niang, Kane and Ejim picking up cheap fouls on the offensive side of the ball.  When they foul out they typically took their fair share of fouls on the offensive end.  Stay set on screens Georges and don't lower your shoulder Melvin.

Is Iowa's defense that good?  Is Iowa States offense that good?  We will find out.

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