Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Bracketology 12/4

Just like that the month of November is over in college hoops and we have one more month until conference play.  To me, November is second to March in terms of entertainment value.  The matchups that you don't typically get to see are great and the neutral sites makes for some close games that might not be so close on college campuses.  Anyway, after a perfect November ISU's resume is squeaky clean with a great deal of optimism going forward.

Here is all of the geeky "stuff" that can be used to evaluate just where ISU stands compared to other schools right now.  First we can take a look at the human polls.  The human polls may not tell the most accurate picture, but they are a very real part of the process considering it is a human committee that picks the field.

AP Poll-Monday December 2nd-- #17
Coach's Poll- Monday December 2nd--#18

If rankings held true for the field, which the most certainly don't, this would predict a #5 seed.

Next, we should take a look at the computers and what they think of the performance from ISU thus far.  The three computer polls I'm going to use include the growing in popularity KenPom rankings, Massey ratings and the Sagarin ratings.

KenPom Rank--Wedenesday December 4th -- #20
Massey Ratings-- Wednesday December 4th-- #7
Sagarin Ratings--Tuesday December 3rd-- #4

Some ranking systems can be tremendously skewed early in the year.  If you look at the top teams in these rankings, it would seem everyone belongs.  In my formula I am going to count the computer average as 1/3 of my rank on the S-Curve.

Computer Average: 10.3

Finally, we have gotten to the third part of my formula, Mr. Bracketology himself Joe Lunardi.  As a Bracketology graduate I feel I should include his information in this particular formula mainly for the reason he actually does a pretty great job predicting the field.

Lunardi S-Curve Ranking--Wednesday December 4th--#19

My S-Curve formula is: Human Polls (1/3) + Computer Average (1/3) + Lunardi (1/3)

OurTwoSense 12/4 S-Curve Ranking: (17.5+10.3+19)/3= 15.6

This number would indicate or predict a 4 seed or a 5 seed depending on conference stipulations and such.  Getting into the #4 seed line is a big deal these days with the pod system.  Considering St. Louis is a second/third round site this could pay big dividends.

KenPom Prediction: 21-7 (w/Percentages), 25-3 (Straight-up)
Massey Ratings: 26-2 (Straight Up)

My Prediction (Including two additional games in Hawaii): 25-5 (13-5 Conf. Rec)

Big Wins: Michigan, @BYU, Iowa, Boise State, Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Losses: @KU, @Baylor, @OSU, @ OU, @ Texas

Tournament Prediction: #5 Iowa State vs #12 St. Mary's

That's all folks.  Until next time, Go State!

No comments:

Post a Comment