Cyclones Tourney Hopes Ed. 3

January 27th

Since last time...

Loss @Texas Tech
ISU took one on the chin down in Lubbock and came away with what the tournament committee will consider a "bad loss".  Many Cyclone fans worried this was a sign of things to come and wrote off any NCAA tournament hopes at that point.  That was just foolish.  While it will be a weakness on their resume come March, the loss on the road to Texas Tech hindered the Cyclones chances of making tournament, not destroy them.

Win vs Kansas State
Yesterday the Cyclones turned around and protected their home court with a win over #11 Kansas State.  This should go down as a "quality win" come March.  Now, Kansas State isn't the 11th best team in the nation.  In fact Ken Pomeroy had them at 46th coming into the game.  However, if the Cyclones can continue to protect home court (with all signs indicating they can) they are just a few road wins away from an at-large bid.

Current Resume:

Overall Record: 14-5
Conference Record: 4-2
Big Wins: #11 Kansas State
Bad Losses: @Texas Tech
RPI: 39
BPI: 36

Ken Pomeroy:

The Cyclones today stand at #41 in KenPom's rankings.  Last week at this time they stood at #30.  The Texas Tech loss really did a number to their status at kenpom.com.  Last week at this time Pomeroy had the Cyclones predicted at 12-6 in the conference based on both probability and straight up picks.  This week probability has them at 10-8 and straight up at 11-5.

Bracket Matrix:

The Bracket Matrix has ISU in the field in 47 of the 58 (81%) brackets.  This is fairly consistent with the 82 percent they were at last week.  You will notice that as we get closer to March more and more bracket predictions are revealed.  Although these brackets don't guarantee a spot in the field there is something to be said for an increase in sample size.  Bracket Matrix still has them on the 12 seed line.


My Prediction (1/27) **This is based on what I predict will happen, not their resume to date**

I think Iowa State is in a very good spot.  To me, their formula to make the dance centers around protecting their home court, which is something I see them doing.  At most I think they will lose one conference game at home.  They are just going to need to earn a couple of road wins at some point.

Predicted:

Overall Record: 22-7
Conference Record: 12-6 (Losses: @OSU, @OU, @BU, @Kansas, @Texas Tech vs Kansas)
Big Wins: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, @Kansas St.
Bad Losses: Texas Tech
Overall Seed: 10 (I think they will sit around the 10-12 seed line for awhile unless they go 3-1 in their next four) 

Once again we will know much, much more about not only Iowa State but also their competition after this upcoming week.  The next four games ( @OSU, vs Baylor, vs Oklahoma, @KSU) are opportunities to add to the resume.  Going 2-2 in those four games keeps them in the same spot.  Going 3-1 would really go a long way to solidifying their spot in the dance.

Fouling in 1 and 1 Situations

This makes sense. First, in the final minutes of the game teams should be allowed to choose to have their opponent shoot a 1-1 if they aren't to 7 fouls yet. Currently it penalizes teams for not fouling during the course of the half. Second, this data supports that fact that there are times teams would be better off fouling certain players while in the 1-1 situation instead of playing defense. Of course no college coaches will use this because they are wimps!

Check it out!

Cyclones NCAA Tourney Hopes Ed. 2

Since last time....





Win vs West Virginia
Win @ TCU

These were two games ISU needed to win to keep their "bad loss" part of the resume squeaky clean.  ISU looked great at times during the West Virginia game.  West Virginia caught on fire from three and just about sent this game to overtime.  I really think the comeback was more of a fluke with WVU uncharacteristically hitting shots than it was a sign of things to come from ISU.  Iowa State then traveled to Fort Worth and took care of business with a terrible TCU team.  It wasn't pretty and ISU didn't play particularly well but when you turn the ball over 16 times and only shoot three free throws on the road yet come away with a 13 point victory its a good sign.

Current Resume:

Overall Record: 13-4
Conference Record: 3-1
Big Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

Ken Pomeroy has ISU predicted to finish the year at 12-6 in conference play based on percentages and also 12-6 based on game-by-game.  This is only a slight improvement from last time.  Its important to keep in mind Ken hasn't been wrong predicting the winner of ISU games all season.  If this holds true ISU would add several big wins to their resume in the coming weeks.  Its also worth noting that Iowa State has jumped from #40 to #30 since the last update in the team rankings.

Looking at Bracket Matrix yields a slight improvement for Iowa State as well..  Here you will find cumulative seed predictions based on 39 bracket projections.  No more need to go different places.  It is all right here and updated daily.  Right now their average seed is an 11.2 (which is good for a 12 seed) and they are "in" in 32 of the 39 predictions.

My Prediction (1/20) **This is based on what I predict will happen, not their resume to date**

I still think Iowa State will pile up the wins in Big 12 play.  The league is just not very good.  ISU could finish as high as 2nd in the conference.  This upcoming Saturday will go a long ways in predicting the rest of the season results and solidifying (hopefully) their resume.  Here are my up to date projections.

Predicted:

Overall Record: 23-8
Conference Record: 13-5 (Losses: @OSU, @OU, @BU, @Kansas, vs Kansas)
Big Wins: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, @Kansas St.
Bad Losses: None (although OU could go from big win to bad loss depending on which way they go)

Overall Seed: 10 (I don't know if their strength of schedule is going to be strong enough for people to buy-in) 

Once again we will know much, much more about not only Iowa State but also their competition after this upcoming week.  Kansas State plays both KU and ISU this week.  Oklahoma's schedule also gets more grueling these next few weeks.  Here's to hoping we are talking about two more victories this time next week!

Cyclones NCAA Tourney Hopes Ed. 1

There were a lot of unknowns going into conference play this year for the Cyclones.  They entered without any prominent wins (although BYU is looking better by the day), yet managed to keep a bad loss off the card.  After the opening game of Big 12 play it was clear that ISU would be in NCAA tournament discussion.  Hopefully over the next few weeks I will be able to add some more insight to this while taking Bracketology.  Lets look at where they stand right now.

Overall Record: 11-4
Conference Record: 1-1
Big Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

Ken Pomeroy has ISU predicted to finish the year at 11-7 in conference play based on percentages and 12-6 based on game-by-game.  To me, that puts them in.  It is still possible they could finish 11-7 and not have a real big win and no bad losses.

One place I can on keeping an eye on is the Bracket Matrix.  Here you will find cumulative seed predictions based 39 bracket projections.  No more need to go different places.  It is all right here and updated daily.  Right now their average seed is an 11.4 and they are "in" in 29 of the 39 predictions.

My Prediction (1/15) **This is based on what I predict will happen, not their resume to date**

I think Iowa State will pile up the wins in Big 12 play.  The league is just not very good.  ISU could finish as high as 2nd in the conference.  I don't see them losing any game at home except maybe Kansas.  I think they have at least four road wins in them.  My final season results are as follows...

Predicted:

Overall Record: 23-8
Conference Record: 13-5 (Losses: @OSU, @OU, @BU, @Kansas, vs Kansas)
Big Wins: Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, @Kansas St.
Bad Losses: None (although OU could go from big win to bad loss depending on which way they go)

Overall Seed: 7 (Just because I hope they stay off the 8/9 line)

First Podcast!

I've done it!  I've successfully produced my first podcast.  In this podcast I talk about today's ISU vs Texas game along with previewing the NFL playoffs.  It was tougher than I thought.  I think in the future I will have more notes to follow but it was a good time.  Enjoy!


January 12 Podcast