Game One Reaction

It was great to have some quality basketball in our lives again last night.  It wasn't the blowout that some of us expected (and probably shouldn't have), but it was the first win of hopefully many this year.  When it comes to college basketball I could probably write a book about every game, week, season, and so forth but I'll try to keep this short as there is another game in just two days.  Here are a few thoughts from last night.

Georges Niang really could be an All-American this year.
I know the pre-season publications have touted him as someone that could be in the mix, but to be honest I didn't completely buy it.  I didn't think he would score enough or do anything else well enough to be first-team.  There are so many options on this team that his numbers might not get to where they need to be.  Well, after the first game it is pretty obvious he will be force fed the ball.  I didn't expect to be impressed with Niang after the first game.  I thought Niang would be Niang and we would leave it at that.  It is pretty clear that the weight loss has helped him in a couple of ways and to me his most impressive stat was the nine rebounds he had.  With the pre-season hype he had and as active as he was last night I think he certainly has a shot.

It is pretty clear Hoiberg is only planning on going eight deep in his rotation...again.
Why do people think every year that Hoiberg will all of a sudden roll out all of these guys?  It just isn't going to happen.  I said it before the season and I will continue to say that you lose your talent edge when you rotate more guys in the game.  Is it great to have some depth?  Yes, but it is like insurance.  Its great to have for peace of mind but you hope you don't have to use it.  Hoiberg essentially ran with a seven man rotation last night and I think when the three amigos return SDW and Edozie will fall to limited roles.

This team won't live by the three point shot.
People have said ISU has lived and died by the three point shot under Hoiberg and I don't think that is fair.  They have shot a lot of them, and made a lot of them under Hoiberg and they will do the same this year but I think this team is the best equipped to score without shooting from beyond the arc.  It was apparent last night that they are going to attack the basket and the rim.  When Nader and McKay return I think this will hold even more merit.  There were an awful lot of free throws shot last night.  Free throws aren't exciting and it was Paul Janssens crew calling every touch but being able to score from the line is a huge benefit when the shots aren't falling.  ISU hasn't shot many free throws under Hoiberg because of how perimeter oriented they were.  This could make a big difference at the end of games.

ISU needs McKay on the interior of the defense.
I have a hard time believing Oakland's big guy would have had the night he did had McKay been down there instead of Niang.  My hope is that the perimeter defense will improve when Nader and McKay return.  If it doesn't it looks like ISU won't be able to shake its Achilles heel from the past couple of seasons.

BDJ's shot selection is a work in progress.
There will be some times that he will force it this year but if Fred can get him to buy-in to the style of play they were playing last year this team could be really special.  The analytic side of me was wondering if he would eliminate the "long two" from his game when he came to Ames.  I noticed on all of his highlights from UNLV he had a tendency to settle for the long two.  Of course on the highlight reel they all went in.  Over the course of the year they won't.  BDJ needs to understand if he gives it up there is a good chance the ball will come right back to him if he's open.

Why the long (two) face?
The basketball analytics people would say the long two is the worst shot in basketball.  Under Fred the Cyclones have largely stayed away from it.  Last night I noticed several players take some long twos.  I'm hoping it gets looked at in film and corrected.  Maybe I will call in to the call-in show and suggest it.  Kidding....kind of.

Monte Morris is going to play a lot of minutes this year.
I wasn't surprised to see Hoiberg use a short bench.  I was surprised to see Custer have as limited of a role as he did.  I won't jump to any conclusions about Custer after last night because he has battled mono and the game was fairly close all the way through, but I fully expected Custer to spell Morris for a little more time and/or play together a little bit.

Hogue should be more assertive on the offensive end.  
There were glimpses last night of his performance against UConn where he scored 34 points.  He has a little extra giddy up in his step and for the most part finishes around the rim.  People may not think of him as an offensive weapon but his overall game as drastically improved since his arrival in Ames.

Pre-Season Q and A Part II

What is your biggest question mark going into the season?

JMeeks writes:

Everyone assumes Jameel McKay will start immediately when he is eligible, but I don't think that will be the case.  Hoiberg has always made changes to the starting lineup slowly.  Georges didn't start his freshman year until the Big 12 games started, same for Monte last year.  If the Cyclones have good chemistry with a starting line up (I'll say Morris, BDJ, Nader, Georges and Hogue), Fred won't rock the boat.  You'll see McKay get minutes off the bench to begin with, perhaps switching spots with Nader by the end of the year.

GreenIvy writes:

I agree its taken Fred until late in non-conference or early in conference season to make adjustments to his starting lineup, however they will only have three games to get it sorted out before conference play.  In this case I think if Fred thinks he is a starter, he starts right away or at least by the South Carolina game.  Regardless, I don’t think the starting lineup is really that big of deal for Fred’s teams.  The best players will play the most minutes regardless if they start or not.  There are going to multiple “starters” coming off the bench.

My biggest question mark was going to be about BDJ and whether he could play team basketball.  From all accounts so far this hasn’t been a problem and rather than pin it all on him I will throw all of the transfers under one umbrella?  Is this the year that the transfer “side effects” rear their ugly head?  This is the most talent Fred has had in his tenure.  You can say all you want about what left the team last year in terms of talent, the amount of players deserving minutes is more than last year.  Who becomes the odd man or men left out and how do they respond?  Do guys like SDW, Matt and Naz start to see their roles diminish and how do they handle that if they do?  For the record I don’t think Matt and Naz will see a diminished role by any means but it might look different than it did a year ago.

ISU MBB Better 1 through 9?

Fran Fraschilla has been spending time at ISU practices again this fall.  Here's one of his comments:

Fran Fraschilla @franfraschilla

My thoughts on Iowa State: While Ejim/Kane will be missed, talent level from 1 to 9 better this year. McKay is 1st rim protector Fred's had.

 

At first blush, it appears reasonable.  But when you consider that Ejim and Kane were two of the very best players in the conference and country, it makes Fran's assessment a very bold one.  Could it be true?

 

First you'd have to decide who the best 9 players were last year and this year.  Going off my All-Big 12 rankings last year, the top 5 were Kane, Ejim, Morris, Niang, and Hogue.  Arbitrarily, I'll go Naz, Thomas, Edozie and SDW after them.  From this article, the top 7 are Niang, BDJ, Hogue, McKay, Morris, Long and Nader.  For the next two I'll pick Custer and Thomas. 

 

Starting from the top, could Niang be better this year than Kane was last?  Qualitatively, Niang was their 'most important' and probably 'most talented' player last year, so it'd be easy to reason he will more talented and more important this year.  Quantitatively, it will be very hard for Georges to match the volume of statistics Kane put up last year.  DeAndre was among the leaders for every major category except blocks, including second in points, first in assists and third in steals.  Niang could eclipse Kane's scoring; he's projected to average 18.4 ppg in the article referenced above, and I think could average closer to 20 during conference play.  His rebounding could improve, with increased quickness and playing a more suitable SF or PF defensive position.  SI's projection has him at 5.6 rpg and I have him at 6 per game, which would get close to the top 15, where Kane was last year.  3.5 assists per game would put him about where Niang was last year, well off the top of the leaderboard.  I don't expect him to be among the conference leaders in blocks or steals or minutes.  Statistically, this matchup goes to Kane.

 

In my All-Big 12 ratings, I take into account minutes per game, because they're listed on the Big 12 website and it should be a good indication of the total impact a player has on his team's success.  Both Kane and Morris were in the top 10 of minutes played per game, but I don't expect to see any Iowa State players on this list.  Fran was right about there being 9 players who could see playing time on any given night, and there just aren't the minutes to go around.

 

A few things are working for Georges in his pursuit of POY honors.  First is the preseason hype.  He's been listed on the All-Big 12 first team and several individuals' All-American watch lists.  This gives him an advantage that Kane certainly didn't have, and puts him ahead of Ejim at this point.  Secondly, the Big 12 seems to have transformed into a guards' league, but both my list and the official preseason lists are split between guards and forwards, with only Staten and Anderson being the type of stat sheet stuffers Kane and Smart were the last couple years.  It doesn't look like either's team will be good enough to put them in serious contention for end of the year POY.  There are no super freshmen guards coming in either.  If Niang can outplay the best of the forwards, he's got a shot.

 

Ejim might not have been super talented, but he put up big numbers as well.  BDJ should contribute nicely but he won't be expected to carry the same type of load that Ejim did.  Another case of more talent but fewer numbers.

 

Hogue and Morris were very close in my ratings last year, so I'll say the 2014-15 Hogue will statistically be better than the 2013-14 Morris. 

 

McKay certainly looks to have more athletic talent than Niang will ever have, and may be able to outperform statistically if he's near the top of the league in rebounds and blocks.  It will depend on how many minutes he plays early in the Big 12 season, which will essentially be his first action of the year.

 

Again Morris and Hogue were close last year so I say each will be better this year, and better than each other last year.

 

Naz should improve, as a 3 point specialist with plenty of other options around him.  It sounds like he could handle the ball a little more too, which would help his assist numbers.  He could see some nice minutes off the bench, mostly at the 2 with some at the 1 and 3.

 

Here is where this year's team becomes undoubtedly stronger than last year.  Nader should be a huge upgrade over Matt Thomas.  He can score in more ways than Matt and defend more positions.  Nader will see minutes as a staple of the second unit.

 

Custer over Edozie is a no brainer.  He fits a role as a scoring point guard backup whereas Edozie was a spot minutes space filler. 

 

Matt Thomas had a bit of a rough go as a freshman, but he was obviously better than SDW last year, and should have improved over the off season.  Unfortunately for him, he won't see nearly as many minutes as he did early last year.

 

So I think statistically, ISU will be better at 6 or 7 of the top 9 spots.  That's impressive in it's own right.  If you assume all the returning players improve, will BDJ, McKay, Nader and Custer be able to replace the production of Ejim and Kane (and Edozie and SDW)?  I think so.  All four can score in their own ways.  BDJ and Custer will replace some of Kane's assists, and the combination of BDJ, McKay and Nader should replace all of their rebounds. 

 

Back to Fran's assessment.  As a whole, 1 through 9, Iowa State is easily both more talented and better statistically than last year.  Individually, matching Kane and Ejim's production probably won't happen for a variety of reasons, but you can argue that Niang is already more "talented" than either, and BDJ and McKay are too.  Fran looks to be right in that every spot on the depth chart is more talented than last year.

 

Projected Minutes Distribution, 2014-2015 MBB Team

I've read a lot of opinions lately that expect Sherron Dorsey-Walker to have a bigger impact this year, and Giorgios average 10 minutes/game.  I don't see how either of those happens.  There are at least 7 players, if not 8 or 9 that should earn minutes ahead of either of them.  Especially considering generally Fred keeps it to a rotation of 6 or 7 players, minutes are going to be scarce.

Rotations tighten up at the end of the season.  And I think it's a good place to start to see who will be playing big minutes next year.  In the postseason, Monte averaged 32 minutes, Hogue 34, Niang 31 (not counting the final two games), Naz 24 minutes, and Thomas 10.  That's 131 minutes/game there.  The two players lost from last year's team combined for 71 mpg.  So I believe, there's only about 70 minutes left to hand out for the upcoming season.  BDJ will start, and should be penciled in for about 30 minutes a game.  Nader and McKay will likely be the 5th starter/6th man in some fashion and should easily share a combined 40 minutes. 

That's it.  That's your 200 total player-minutes per game.  There aren't another 20 minutes for SDW to make an impact and certainly not 10 minutes for the Greek.  You could argue Hogue only sees 25-30, but those extra minutes would go to Nader/McKay.  And maybe Naz sees a reduction, but those would go to BDJ first (Kane averaged 35 mpg last year) and I think Custer second as a backup point guard. 

With Nader and McKay and Thomas out to start the season, against an easy non-conference schedule, everyone should see minutes.  Come the end of the season, I think it'll be Morris, BDJ, Niang, Hogue, Nader, McKay and Naz seeing nearly all the minutes.  And I'm OK with that.  It's still a deeper, and better, team than they had last year.

2013-14 Individual Players Recap and Predictions

How the players did this season and what to expect going forward.

DeAndre Kane - He finished All-Big 12 first team, Newcomer of the Year, All-American honorable mention and still might have been underappreciated even by his own fanbase.  I've said all year long he's been the best player on the team and in the conference and he didn't disappoint in the postseason, averaging 17 points, 7 rebound and 6 assists.  He flirted with a triple double in each of the last two games.  Royce White was flashier, but Kane impacted the game in all facets the same way and had more team success.  He's my pick for best transfer of the Hoiberg era, and just had the greatest single season of the Hoiberg era.

Melvin Ejim - Looking over some of my previous posts, I noted where Melvin had 70 points and 30 rebounds over two games.  That's silly.  Ejim might see his jersey retired some day based on his career numbers and achievements, but for that one week, he was as good as any player in ISU history.  In recent memory, Marcus Fizer is the only player that would have been even capable of putting up a stat line like this over two games.  And before that you're probably talking Abdul-Aziz and Alexander, both of whom have their jerseys in the rafters.

Georges Niang - Georges took a big step forward with his game.  He continued to improve his conditioning, averaging 31 MPG in his last 4, scoring 20 PPG in that stretch.  Niang might have been the 3rd best player on the team this year, but he's the one opposing fan bases know about.  With Kane and Monte, he didn't have to play as much point-forward as I thought he would at this point last year, but they still ran plenty of offense through him.  Niang was the one who kept the team going when they were stuck in the mud and was the one to get buckets at the end of games.  He should be the #1 scoring option next year, and with the addition of McKay will get some help on the defensive end.  20 points per game and an increase in assists would put Georges right at the line between first and second team All-Big 12, depending how the team finishes. 

Monte Morris - Matt Thomas was the freshman starting at the beginning of the year, but Monte Morris was the starter at the end.  He played 32 minutes combined in their two big non-conference games against Michigan and BYU and in the postseason averaged 32 minutes/game.  Monte came on as perhaps the team's best defender and showed the ability to score too, averaging 10.6 per game in the postseason.  Most of his assists early in the season came in the flow of the game but by the end he started creating a little more, while still keeping his turnovers down.  I'll reiterate my prediction that he'll be at least third team All Big 12 next year.

Dustin Hogue - Wow.  Who knew he had that type of game in him?  I bet even he wouldn't have predicted that type of scoring outburst.  His big night (along with DeAndre Kane) kept ISU in that game with UCONN and gave the Cyclone fan base something to be excited about heading into next year.  He had a Ejim '12-'13 type season this year, and while it's too much to expect him to have a Ejim '13-'14 type season next year, who knows.  He averaged 17.6 PPG and 34 MPG in the postseason.  I thought he could have been named honorable mention All-Big 12 this year and that should be his floor next year.


Naz Long - 2014 will forever be known for the birth of 3sus of Nazareth.  Slaying OSU not once by twice, and extending the season for one more game, Naz provided more heroics per minute played than anyone I can remember.  That he was even on the floor to make those big shots was either incredible foresight by Hoiberg or extremely good luck.  Either way, we'll take it.  He justified the swagger shown by Kane and Niang but was humble and deferential in post game interviews.  His peacekeeping ability with Kane was an underrated aspect of the season.  Often when Kane started getting worked up, Naz was there to step in front of him and let him vent.  It's an impressive trait for someone whose roll was undefined to start the year.  And a big reason why the transfer "experiment" will continue to work for Iowa State.

Matt Thomas - Matt had a tough year.  Looking back, it's pretty obvious that Monte should have been the freshman starting at the beginning of the year, but since it was Matt, he had some unfair expectations placed on him.  It's tough to be a shooting specialist as the fifth option on the court.  When he got going, he played OK but went through some slumps like any shooter.  Hopefully he'll put in the same work that Naz did last season and get his 3P% up around 35-40%.

Daniel Edozie - I still think we should have seen more of him this season.  This team lacked size at times and could have used his minutes and fouls.  He was great when he played but I think he'll be outside the rotation with the additions of Nader, McKay, Custer and another transfer.

SDW and Gibson - I've seen SDW's name more times since the season ended than any other player on the team.  While it would be nice if he'd make an improvement like Naz, I just don't see it happening.  As a fan, I'm rooting for Thomas to make that leap and would love it if Custer could come in and play ahead of him.  Unfortunately, both of these guys signed on when the team was thin and have been left behind by the team's huge upswing.  It'll be tough for either of these players to move on - Percy is coming into his senior year and SDW has already used his redshirt, but it wouldn't be the first time Fred has seen players leave.  While they don't NEED to cut either, I'd be surprised if both return for next year. 

My 2013-2014 All Big 12 Teams

Preseason All Big 12

Using my system from last year, here is my preseason all big 12.  This is more how I think the season will finish, but it works for preseason too.  Note, I followed last year’s example and included two freshmen on the first team, a transfer on the second and another freshman on the third.  The big 12 will continue to be impacted by one and done caliber freshmen and this season will be no different.  I slotted them based on the recruiting grades from ESPN.  Unfortunately, all are attending KU this year.  The transfer should once again come from ISU as Kane will fill up the stat sheet.  

Surprises

The big surprises are Marcus Smart and Isaiah Austin sticking around since they would have been top 5-10 draft picks last year.  Also affecting my list is the transfer of KSU guard Angel Rodriguez, a huge blow to their team, and would probably have been preseason all big 12 first team.  Farther down the list (not shown) were all the departures from UT.  Their program continues to get hit hard by players transferring out. 

Snubs

The lack of love for Kyan Anderson must be because he plays for the worst team in the conference.  TCU played hard for Trent Johnson last year, and should be improved this season.  This should help raise Anderson’s stature.

Breakouts

I’ve only been doing this for a year, so I’m not sure how many non-freshman, non-transfers break into the top 20 or so players in the Big XII.  Since my list was 50 people long at the end of last season, and only three of them aren’t represented above, they’d really have to come out of nowhere.  One such candidate would be Perry Ellis, listed as honorable mention preseason by the coaches.  I think Self hid him on the bench last year to keep him around (half joking) but with Kansas’ team, there’s a lot of hands and only one ball.  We’ll see who ends up with the stats at the end of the year. 

“Official” preseason All Big XII

Of the 12 players listed above, my top 6 matched 5 of theirs, and my top 12 had 10 of the same guys.  The ones I missed were Ellis (talked about above) and Elon Harris of WVU.  Don’t get that selection at all.  I guess he’s the best player on what might be the sixth best team in the Big 12?  He’s the inevitable preseason selection that disappoints come postseason awards.  The two that I had were Kyan Anderson (again, above) and DeAndre Kane.  To ISU fans, this was an obvious omission.  Kane put up big numbers in all three years at Marshall and should be the front runner for Newcomer of the Year this season.

For ISU

Last year, the Cyclones had four players make the All Big 12 teams, which is pretty impressive since only six were in serious rotation.  I’ve got three from ISU with postseason honors this year, however JUCO Hogue and freshmen Thomas and Morris are wildcards (as discussed in Breakouts) and should get enough minutes to find themselves on my big year end list.  If the team plays well enough to contend for the third spot, a fourth making the coaches’ All Big 12 squad again is likely.