Baylor's Hidden Advantage

Art Briles said something interesting at the Big 12 media days, this from an ESPN article:

Briles on playing in central Texas: "Get your map. Throw a dart. Try to hit the middle. It's gon' be right around Waco."

Briles on recruiting in Texas: "If I was coaching at Ouachita Baptist in Arkansas or at San Jose State, that would be my priority also. Which it is, for everyone, every university in the nation. Texas is the most heavily recruited state. That's what makes it so invigorating as a recruiter and football program to keep kids here." 

Briles on winning over the target demographic: "We're a young brand. You ask somebody [age] 10 to 30 who's the best football team in the Southwest part of the United States -- you know, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, New Mexico, the bordering states around here. They're going to say Baylor. Now 30 to 60, you might get a different answer. And 60 to 90 may be different. But those young kids, they associate with Baylor. That's something that's working for us." 

Both Baylor's football and basketball programs have risen to national relevancy over the past five or so years.  Baylor is a small private school, with no national following and not much local support to speak of.  So how did this happen?  Briles' statements will lead us to some interesting answers.

Art was close with his Texas geography.  Technically, Waco is about 100 miles east of the geographic center of Texas, but this puts it right in the middle of the "Texas Triangle" - Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin and San Antonio.  Waco is only 50 miles from the population center of Texas.  A good place to be if you're trying to keep Texas kids in Texas.

How many people are we talking about?  We always hear about kids wanting to stay close enough for their families to see them play, which I assumed was within a three-hour drive, or about 200 miles.  This also allowed Baylor to be within reach of Houston, D-FW and San Antonio, areas all well-represented on their current roster.  This very cool site (http://mcdc.missouri.edu/websas/caps10c.html) allows you to search for population within a radius of any location.

More than 20.3 million people live within 200 miles of Waco.  That's a lot of potential recruits.  That number is higher than the University of Texas or either of the other Texas schools and roughly two to four times that of the former Big 8 schools.  Only West Virginia has a greater population within 200 miles.

Also worth noting is Baylor has the highest surrounding population growth of any of the Big 12 schools.  Their recruiting base is growing at a faster rate.  There really are millions of kids and young adults growing up in and moving to the region for whom Texas' and Oklahoma's dominance is a fading memory.  Baylor has more recently won a Big 12 championship (2), had a top 10 finish and Heisman winner than either UT or OU.  For kids in high school today, it isn't "Baylor is Baylor is Baylor" anymore.  Basketball is even more wide open in the state of Texas than football.  

Baylor capitalized on the opportunity in a big way.  The two head coaches seem to be perfect fits for the school, and are committed to signing Texas talent.  The school secured donations based on the recent success to build a brand new football stadium, which will undoubtedly attract more fans, players and money.  

Coda:  27 million people?!? I thought West Virginia was in the sticks?

We forget how much closer metropolitan areas are on the east coast than the rest of the nation.  Morgantown is no metropolis, indeed the whole population of West Virginia is only 1.8 million.  However, included within a 200 mile radius are Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Columbus, Richmond Virginia, Washington D.C, and Baltimore.  This is undoubtedly what attracted the Big 12 to WVU when it came to TV revenues.

Pre-Season Q and A Part IV

What else will you be looking for out of this year's team?

JMeeks writes:

Everyone knows the Cyclones will play fast and score a lot of points.  It looks like this team will play even faster and score more points, if that's possible.  The next step is to start playing quality defense.  You can play undersized and shoot threes and try to outscore the other team, but defense is harder.  To play great defense, you need size and pride.  One or the other isn't going to cut it.  ISU has had plenty of prideful players over the last few years, but just hasn't had the size and depth to compete all game in the paint.  This year, they'll have size and depth with Niang, Hogue, McKay, Nader, even Edozie and the Greek.  That should provide them with enough minutes and fouls to bang down low all game.  But will they have pride to play great defense for 40 minutes?  I know Hogue and Edozie do, and Niang tries hard within the constraint of 5 fouls.  It'll come down to the newcomers McKay, Nader and BDJ.  McKay is definitely the most athletic big man ISU has had in a long time, but he isn't Joel Embiid.  He'll need more than talent to make an impact in the Big 12.  Will Nader be willing to use his size to defend big men?  Will he work hard enough to defend guards if he has to?  Being an off the ball defender might be the most demanding position in basketball.  Will BDJ be able to provide stretches of shut down defense like Chris Babb was beloved for?  Team defense is better than no defense, but it's still a compromise.  To make the jump to elite, the Cyclones will have to be able to play great individual defense when it counts.  For what it's worth, I'd be disappointed if they didn't.  Having the transfers practice against the current players every day for a year had to bring out some intense individual battles.  Niang is the on-court motivator and Naz is the on-court mediator.  Since Coach Fred Hoiberg has already called out the ultimate goal, he won't tolerate a lack of effort and has the depth to back that up.

GreenIvy writes:

Because you mentioned defense I’ll stick with the subject because I think they will be significantly improved.  By the time conference season rolls around and for the first time in Hoiberg’s regime, ISU won’t be undersized all of the place on defense.  There will be no more conceding two point baskets in certain spots like we have seen before and in the grand scheme of things hopefully it will help them land a few more calls.  Hoiberg has actually mixed in a zone to disrupt the pace.  Is this something he will employ more this year?  There are certainly some matchups it will come in handy, namely against Texas.  Fred has a lot of length to use so its certainly something to keep an eye on.  Do I think he will use much of it?  No, I don’t because it typically slows down the pace and generates fewer possessions but its something they could have in their arsenal if the time is right.

I’m also looking to see if this year’s team has a Chris Babb defensive force on it.  Abdel Nader could be that guy.  When Babb was here you knew that no matter who the other team’s stud was, he wasn’t getting his points that night.  It was such an advantage to make sure their stud wasn’t the one that was going to go off.  I think they might employ more of this strategy this year with their depth and the fact that their help is down low in Jameel McKay.

Pre-Season Q and A Part II

What is your biggest question mark going into the season?

JMeeks writes:

Everyone assumes Jameel McKay will start immediately when he is eligible, but I don't think that will be the case.  Hoiberg has always made changes to the starting lineup slowly.  Georges didn't start his freshman year until the Big 12 games started, same for Monte last year.  If the Cyclones have good chemistry with a starting line up (I'll say Morris, BDJ, Nader, Georges and Hogue), Fred won't rock the boat.  You'll see McKay get minutes off the bench to begin with, perhaps switching spots with Nader by the end of the year.

GreenIvy writes:

I agree its taken Fred until late in non-conference or early in conference season to make adjustments to his starting lineup, however they will only have three games to get it sorted out before conference play.  In this case I think if Fred thinks he is a starter, he starts right away or at least by the South Carolina game.  Regardless, I don’t think the starting lineup is really that big of deal for Fred’s teams.  The best players will play the most minutes regardless if they start or not.  There are going to multiple “starters” coming off the bench.

My biggest question mark was going to be about BDJ and whether he could play team basketball.  From all accounts so far this hasn’t been a problem and rather than pin it all on him I will throw all of the transfers under one umbrella?  Is this the year that the transfer “side effects” rear their ugly head?  This is the most talent Fred has had in his tenure.  You can say all you want about what left the team last year in terms of talent, the amount of players deserving minutes is more than last year.  Who becomes the odd man or men left out and how do they respond?  Do guys like SDW, Matt and Naz start to see their roles diminish and how do they handle that if they do?  For the record I don’t think Matt and Naz will see a diminished role by any means but it might look different than it did a year ago.