My 2014-15 Pre-Season All-Big 12 Basketball Team

I'd like to get this out before the official team gets released but missed it this year.  The Big 12 looks to have a lot of individual talent again this year, returning 15 of the 27 players listed on the year-end All-Big 12 teams.  Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and West Virginia all bring back talented freshman.  Only 3 of the 10 listed on the official teams are seniors, so the conference looks to have plenty of talent next year, too.

Here are my teams, based on last years' stats.

My top 10 matched 8 players on the official teams.  The differences were Anderson (this is the last year you'll have to hear about him from me!) and Monte, with Foster and Nash replacing them.  

My feelings on Anderson are well known.  If there's a player I feel bad for, it's him.  He's in the same vein of do-everything Big 12 guards like Staten and Kane last year.  Trent Johnson is a good coach and unlike other teams that are out-matched every game, TCU keeps playing hard.  They picked up a good player in Karviar Sheppard before last year and would seem to have the same built-in recruiting advantages that Baylor has - proximity to the DFW market and a Christian school.  A couple things going against it are a terrible basketball arena and really, really poor fan support.  It wouldn't surprise me to see TCU build something within the Big 12 but if they can't make the first step (8th or better finish) this year before Anderson leaves, they could be really bad for a while.

Monte was undervalued last year in the postseason awards.  He was 5th in assists and 7th in steals while playing the 9th most minutes in conference play.  This year, I'd expect his assists to improve since he should handle the ball more with the change of Kane to BDJ in the backcourt.  His steals may improve too.  If the backcourt provides the rim protection as advertised, it will allow more defensive gambling around the perimeter.

Foster was a good freshman last year, scoring a bunch of points.  He'll have to add more to his game to make the first team post-season.  LeBryan Nash is my pick this year for player most likely to underwhelm.  Last year was preseason first team pick Eron Harris.  If there's a second guy I might feel bad for it would be Nash.  He's shown no progress to this point in college, if anything maybe some regression.  As a top 10 overall recruit, he should have been in the NBA a couple years ago, and is now looking like a second round pick.  Most other coaches would be able to take advantage of his physical gifts but not Travis Ford.  

I'm surprised neither of the big recruits made the list, Cliff Alexander or Myles Turner.  Every year since I've been following, there's been a freshman make the first team.  Both these guys were top 10 recruits.  I expect both of them to make at least third team (and then go pro). 

All three of the new ISU players have a shot at post season honors.  I was glad to see BDJ make newcomer of the year.  It's about time people start recognizing what Hoiberg is doing with transfers.  Post-season, I'd expect BDJ to be second team, at least, with McKay and Nader having a shot at honorable mention.  

All Big 12 Update - 2013-14 non-conference

In the future, I'll be using conference games only stats but the record start by ISU got me wondering how our guys stacked up so far.

Reiterating what I said above, this is from only non-conference games, so take it with a grain of salt.  But that said, the Cyclones are well represented, and are about where I'd expect them to finish the year.  Of note, DeAndre Kane finishes as the non-conference Big 12 player of the year - if there was such a thing.  He did win player of the week twice when nobody else did.  The way he fills the stat sheet can't be ignored.  And if the Cyclones finish the year as the top team in the conference, he'll be the favorite for POY.

Kane's toughest competition might come from a player on his own team - Melvim Ejim.  Dustin Hogue has hampered Ejim's rebounding but he's made up for it with scoring, finishing the non-conference as the second highest scorer in the Big 12.  One player on the all big 12 first team is rare enough.  Two players would be unheard of (probably, I didn't look back very far).  I don't see these two getting kept off..

Last year, Marcus Smart didn't win newcomer of the year, and Will Clyburn won it even though he was only on the second team, so Dustin Hogue has to be considered a favorite to win it this year.  The dude is a rebounding machine (tops in the Big 12 this year), and scores enough to gain some points there too. I don't see his contribution slipping any during the conference schedule.

Georges Niang is whom ISU fans want to see with the ball at the end of a close game, but that might not be enough to get recognized by the Big 12 media.  He scores at a decent clip, and his assists are top 10 in the league but altogether it's probably just enough to land on an all Big 12 team.  It'd be a good problem if we're disappointed our fourth player represented only made the third team.  

 - Marcus Smart will be a top 5 player in the league.  Without Markel Brown I think it'll be too difficult for him to repeat as POY.  

 - My man Kyan Anderson has started out hot.  It all depends on where TCU finishes if he's a first team or third team performer.

 - Cory Jefferson is a solid basketball player.  I haven't watched him much, but his numbers are solid.  He's a better player than the much higher profile Isaiah Austin, who isn't even represented in my list above.

 - Kansas players are struggling.  If I didn't know anything about their schedule, I'd say Kansas didn't play anybody in the non-conference and played scrubs a lot of minutes.  But since I do know their schedule, I know they played a LOT of tough competition, and probably played their best players significantly.  Will their stars play better in the conference?

 - There are a lot of people on my list I'd never heard of before.  This tells me a couple things.  The Big 12 continues to have individual talent on every team.  Eight of the ten teams are represented.  It also tells me that everyone is recruiting well (especially OU and Texas), with 8 new players on the list.

This might not tell us everything, but as Iowa State fans, we should feel great about where our team is right now and the talent that Fred is bringing in (Kane and Hogue) and developing (Ejim and Niang).

DeAndre Kane - 2013-14 Big 12 Newcomer of the Year

I found something I'd worked on over the summer when it was announced DeAndre Kane was coming to ISU.  His numbers from Marshall were certainly impressive and I wondered how it would translate to the Cyclones.

Five players have transferred into ISU and started immediately during the Hoiberg era.  I looked at their stats from their last year with their former teams and their first year with Iowa State.  What did it show?

Unsurprisingly, FG% improves slightly, 3P% improves by 10%, and assists improve by more than 20%.  On average, every statistic improves or increases from the transfers season prior to ISU and their first with the Cyclones (except FT% and blocks).  DeAndre's stats were already gaudy.  If they improve, what will they look like?

His stat line would look like this - 18 pts/game, 8.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2 steals.  Wow.  Those wouldn't be newcomer of the year stats, those would be Big 12 player of the year stats.  Marcus Smart last year went 15 points, 4.2 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 3 steals.  That was good enough for consensus player of the year.  

DeAndre's current line is 14.1 pts, 5.8 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals.  That's not quite what I'd calculated above but those are still huge numbers.  The logical thing would be to assume that his numbers come down in conference play, but I predict they'll stay the same or get better.  He'll play more minutes (29/game so far) and likely will keep up his high usage rate (24.6%).  

I'm changing my outlook for DeAndre.  He'll finish as a first team all Big 12 player. 

My 2013-2014 All Big 12 Teams

Preseason All Big 12

Using my system from last year, here is my preseason all big 12.  This is more how I think the season will finish, but it works for preseason too.  Note, I followed last year’s example and included two freshmen on the first team, a transfer on the second and another freshman on the third.  The big 12 will continue to be impacted by one and done caliber freshmen and this season will be no different.  I slotted them based on the recruiting grades from ESPN.  Unfortunately, all are attending KU this year.  The transfer should once again come from ISU as Kane will fill up the stat sheet.  

Surprises

The big surprises are Marcus Smart and Isaiah Austin sticking around since they would have been top 5-10 draft picks last year.  Also affecting my list is the transfer of KSU guard Angel Rodriguez, a huge blow to their team, and would probably have been preseason all big 12 first team.  Farther down the list (not shown) were all the departures from UT.  Their program continues to get hit hard by players transferring out. 

Snubs

The lack of love for Kyan Anderson must be because he plays for the worst team in the conference.  TCU played hard for Trent Johnson last year, and should be improved this season.  This should help raise Anderson’s stature.

Breakouts

I’ve only been doing this for a year, so I’m not sure how many non-freshman, non-transfers break into the top 20 or so players in the Big XII.  Since my list was 50 people long at the end of last season, and only three of them aren’t represented above, they’d really have to come out of nowhere.  One such candidate would be Perry Ellis, listed as honorable mention preseason by the coaches.  I think Self hid him on the bench last year to keep him around (half joking) but with Kansas’ team, there’s a lot of hands and only one ball.  We’ll see who ends up with the stats at the end of the year. 

“Official” preseason All Big XII

Of the 12 players listed above, my top 6 matched 5 of theirs, and my top 12 had 10 of the same guys.  The ones I missed were Ellis (talked about above) and Elon Harris of WVU.  Don’t get that selection at all.  I guess he’s the best player on what might be the sixth best team in the Big 12?  He’s the inevitable preseason selection that disappoints come postseason awards.  The two that I had were Kyan Anderson (again, above) and DeAndre Kane.  To ISU fans, this was an obvious omission.  Kane put up big numbers in all three years at Marshall and should be the front runner for Newcomer of the Year this season.

For ISU

Last year, the Cyclones had four players make the All Big 12 teams, which is pretty impressive since only six were in serious rotation.  I’ve got three from ISU with postseason honors this year, however JUCO Hogue and freshmen Thomas and Morris are wildcards (as discussed in Breakouts) and should get enough minutes to find themselves on my big year end list.  If the team plays well enough to contend for the third spot, a fourth making the coaches’ All Big 12 squad again is likely.