So the general consensus is in, and it is: Mckay is great, everyone else has been bad lately. I can't dispute that McKay has been playing great basketball since he's been eligible, but there's a couple things to look at.
McKay didn't play as many minutes as I thought against Drake and MVSU, but you could tell he was playing his game and was the focal point when he was in there. McKay had only 2 fewer FG attempts in those two games than Niang (25-12 Niang in the two since). So Niang and others were facilitating, while McKay was playing his game, warming up after 1.5 years of not playing competitively. That gives him an advantage. Everyone else looked like they'd been off for three weeks against South Carolina while McKay looked ready. I think this has much to do with it.
McKay has improved the defensive efficiency. It's gone from 84th after the Drake game to 56th after the Oklahoma State game. He's meant something on that side of the ball. He is a shot blocker (7 through 3 games) and a shot changer.
That said, I think ISU was gambling too much against South Carolina. Everyone has bought into McKay being a rim protector and the team maybe too much. Where the team had excelled before - shading players' strong hand, staying in front, guarding the baseline - all seemed to break down in that game. The fans are excited, the players are excited about a defensive changer, but I think the benefit will show most when the Cyclones play their style of defense on the perimeter and let McKay erase some of the mistakes (which aren't hard to find). Let him be a defensive backstop instead of putting everything on him.
As an offensive player, he's been as good as advertised or even better. He's had 38 points in 84 minutes, or 13.5 points per 30 minutes, as has been pointed out before. He's had those alley-oops, he's had those dunk put-backs. He's had those dunk and fouls. Sure his FT% has been poor (42.1%) but he's been making a lot of the shots on which he's been fouled. McKay's running of the floor will have other teams compensating. And his rebounding has been helpful.
Here's where I think McKay hurts a little bit, on the offensive side. The previous two years, Georges had been the tallest (and heaviest) man on the court for the Cyclones. So the other teams tallest, and heaviest man, usually guarded him. Because Ejim and Hogue and others were outside threats, they could take their men out to the three point line and let Niang work one-on-one against the other team's center in the paint. Georges can get his shot off against one person bigger than him and have success. Through two games, it looks like the increased quickness of the other teams' 4 and the size of the other teams' 5 have been tougher to overcome. He's struggled some down low, since McKay has been in the lineup.
Here's how to fix that. When Georges is going to be isolated down low, which is often, McKay should start working his way out of the paint. He'll give up the offensive board opportunity but hopefully the other team's big man will follow. If the other team's center stays low, McKay isn't a threat to shoot from outside (I don't think), but Georges is a good enough passer to get it to him. Hopefully this triggers a reaction for the defense, and McKay can swing the ball around to shooters. I think McKay is a good enough handle to make this work. It might even help, if McKay moves outside and toward another ISU player. Niang gets the ball to McKay, someone help defends on McKay, he gets the ball to someone else, and there might be an opportunity to get the ball back to Niang in the post where he can do work.
Fred's half-court set, his transition offense is all built on spacing. I think spacing makes Georges work. Even in the pros an iso can't work if defenses are sagging. If McKay can show any ability to either make a 15 ft jumper on the baseline, or be able to work the ball around, it will open up Georges so he can work more efficiently down low.
All that said, McKay has added an unique element to this team that hasn't been there before. His ability to rebound, run the break, block and affect shots, is really something this team hasn't had before. I think it's just a matter of spacing on the offensive side of the floor and Fred is the right man to make it right.
Showing posts with label Fred Hoiberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fred Hoiberg. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Game One Reaction
It was great to have some quality basketball in our lives again last night. It wasn't the blowout that some of us expected (and probably shouldn't have), but it was the first win of hopefully many this year. When it comes to college basketball I could probably write a book about every game, week, season, and so forth but I'll try to keep this short as there is another game in just two days. Here are a few thoughts from last night.
Georges Niang really could be an All-American this year.
I know the pre-season publications have touted him as someone that could be in the mix, but to be honest I didn't completely buy it. I didn't think he would score enough or do anything else well enough to be first-team. There are so many options on this team that his numbers might not get to where they need to be. Well, after the first game it is pretty obvious he will be force fed the ball. I didn't expect to be impressed with Niang after the first game. I thought Niang would be Niang and we would leave it at that. It is pretty clear that the weight loss has helped him in a couple of ways and to me his most impressive stat was the nine rebounds he had. With the pre-season hype he had and as active as he was last night I think he certainly has a shot.
It is pretty clear Hoiberg is only planning on going eight deep in his rotation...again.
Why do people think every year that Hoiberg will all of a sudden roll out all of these guys? It just isn't going to happen. I said it before the season and I will continue to say that you lose your talent edge when you rotate more guys in the game. Is it great to have some depth? Yes, but it is like insurance. Its great to have for peace of mind but you hope you don't have to use it. Hoiberg essentially ran with a seven man rotation last night and I think when the three amigos return SDW and Edozie will fall to limited roles.
This team won't live by the three point shot.
People have said ISU has lived and died by the three point shot under Hoiberg and I don't think that is fair. They have shot a lot of them, and made a lot of them under Hoiberg and they will do the same this year but I think this team is the best equipped to score without shooting from beyond the arc. It was apparent last night that they are going to attack the basket and the rim. When Nader and McKay return I think this will hold even more merit. There were an awful lot of free throws shot last night. Free throws aren't exciting and it was Paul Janssens crew calling every touch but being able to score from the line is a huge benefit when the shots aren't falling. ISU hasn't shot many free throws under Hoiberg because of how perimeter oriented they were. This could make a big difference at the end of games.
ISU needs McKay on the interior of the defense.
I have a hard time believing Oakland's big guy would have had the night he did had McKay been down there instead of Niang. My hope is that the perimeter defense will improve when Nader and McKay return. If it doesn't it looks like ISU won't be able to shake its Achilles heel from the past couple of seasons.
BDJ's shot selection is a work in progress.
There will be some times that he will force it this year but if Fred can get him to buy-in to the style of play they were playing last year this team could be really special. The analytic side of me was wondering if he would eliminate the "long two" from his game when he came to Ames. I noticed on all of his highlights from UNLV he had a tendency to settle for the long two. Of course on the highlight reel they all went in. Over the course of the year they won't. BDJ needs to understand if he gives it up there is a good chance the ball will come right back to him if he's open.
Why the long (two) face?
The basketball analytics people would say the long two is the worst shot in basketball. Under Fred the Cyclones have largely stayed away from it. Last night I noticed several players take some long twos. I'm hoping it gets looked at in film and corrected. Maybe I will call in to the call-in show and suggest it. Kidding....kind of.
Monte Morris is going to play a lot of minutes this year.
I wasn't surprised to see Hoiberg use a short bench. I was surprised to see Custer have as limited of a role as he did. I won't jump to any conclusions about Custer after last night because he has battled mono and the game was fairly close all the way through, but I fully expected Custer to spell Morris for a little more time and/or play together a little bit.
Hogue should be more assertive on the offensive end.
There were glimpses last night of his performance against UConn where he scored 34 points. He has a little extra giddy up in his step and for the most part finishes around the rim. People may not think of him as an offensive weapon but his overall game as drastically improved since his arrival in Ames.
Georges Niang really could be an All-American this year.
I know the pre-season publications have touted him as someone that could be in the mix, but to be honest I didn't completely buy it. I didn't think he would score enough or do anything else well enough to be first-team. There are so many options on this team that his numbers might not get to where they need to be. Well, after the first game it is pretty obvious he will be force fed the ball. I didn't expect to be impressed with Niang after the first game. I thought Niang would be Niang and we would leave it at that. It is pretty clear that the weight loss has helped him in a couple of ways and to me his most impressive stat was the nine rebounds he had. With the pre-season hype he had and as active as he was last night I think he certainly has a shot.
It is pretty clear Hoiberg is only planning on going eight deep in his rotation...again.
Why do people think every year that Hoiberg will all of a sudden roll out all of these guys? It just isn't going to happen. I said it before the season and I will continue to say that you lose your talent edge when you rotate more guys in the game. Is it great to have some depth? Yes, but it is like insurance. Its great to have for peace of mind but you hope you don't have to use it. Hoiberg essentially ran with a seven man rotation last night and I think when the three amigos return SDW and Edozie will fall to limited roles.
This team won't live by the three point shot.
People have said ISU has lived and died by the three point shot under Hoiberg and I don't think that is fair. They have shot a lot of them, and made a lot of them under Hoiberg and they will do the same this year but I think this team is the best equipped to score without shooting from beyond the arc. It was apparent last night that they are going to attack the basket and the rim. When Nader and McKay return I think this will hold even more merit. There were an awful lot of free throws shot last night. Free throws aren't exciting and it was Paul Janssens crew calling every touch but being able to score from the line is a huge benefit when the shots aren't falling. ISU hasn't shot many free throws under Hoiberg because of how perimeter oriented they were. This could make a big difference at the end of games.
ISU needs McKay on the interior of the defense.
I have a hard time believing Oakland's big guy would have had the night he did had McKay been down there instead of Niang. My hope is that the perimeter defense will improve when Nader and McKay return. If it doesn't it looks like ISU won't be able to shake its Achilles heel from the past couple of seasons.
BDJ's shot selection is a work in progress.
There will be some times that he will force it this year but if Fred can get him to buy-in to the style of play they were playing last year this team could be really special. The analytic side of me was wondering if he would eliminate the "long two" from his game when he came to Ames. I noticed on all of his highlights from UNLV he had a tendency to settle for the long two. Of course on the highlight reel they all went in. Over the course of the year they won't. BDJ needs to understand if he gives it up there is a good chance the ball will come right back to him if he's open.
Why the long (two) face?
The basketball analytics people would say the long two is the worst shot in basketball. Under Fred the Cyclones have largely stayed away from it. Last night I noticed several players take some long twos. I'm hoping it gets looked at in film and corrected. Maybe I will call in to the call-in show and suggest it. Kidding....kind of.
Monte Morris is going to play a lot of minutes this year.
I wasn't surprised to see Hoiberg use a short bench. I was surprised to see Custer have as limited of a role as he did. I won't jump to any conclusions about Custer after last night because he has battled mono and the game was fairly close all the way through, but I fully expected Custer to spell Morris for a little more time and/or play together a little bit.
Hogue should be more assertive on the offensive end.
There were glimpses last night of his performance against UConn where he scored 34 points. He has a little extra giddy up in his step and for the most part finishes around the rim. People may not think of him as an offensive weapon but his overall game as drastically improved since his arrival in Ames.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Pre-Season Q and A Part III
How will the minutes be handled?
JMeeks writes:
Along with how McKay is introduced in the middle of the season, is the question of how Fred will manage minutes. There are at least nine guys who should see playing time during the heart of the season, but Hoiberg has always been a coach who leaves players on the court for long stretches, letting them play through poor shooting or mistakes. Will there be less tolerance of that? Will playing time be determined by defensive matchups? My uninformed hunch is that he was watching the Spurs on their run to the title, and how they managed to get so many people on the court and get production out of everyone. He could get Georges rest around the middle time out breaks of each half, similar to how Popovitch handles Duncan at the quarter breaks. Or play some with a full second unit, like the Spurs did effectively in the playoffs last year. Even Popovitch says its a feel thing, but it seems like it would be difficult to effectively play call a game and manage minutes outside of obvious score/foul situations.
GreenIvy writes:
Talk about a loaded question. My answer is I have no freaking clue. What I do know is that Fred will play his best players for the most minutes. College basketball is different from NBA basketball in terms of rotations. First off the game is an entire eight minutes shorter. Secondly, they aren’t playing nearly as many games and in all reality their bodies probably recover easier. If the NBA is a marathon, college basketball is a sprint. If you aren’t keeping your top 7-8 players out there for “starter” minutes you are doing a disservice to your team. This is why I think Calipari ends up scrapping the platoon system come conference play. No matter how much talent you have, some of your talent is better than the rest. Will there be times to expand roles and save some legs? Sure. I just don’t see Hoiberg using a 9 or 10 man rotation. The one advantage he will have this year is encouraging a more aggressive defensive approach, especially with the guards. I think we will know more once Matt and Abdel return and we see the minutes adjust accordingly
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Projected Minutes Distribution, 2014-2015 MBB Team
I've read a lot of opinions lately that expect Sherron Dorsey-Walker to have a bigger impact this year, and Giorgios average 10 minutes/game. I don't see how either of those happens. There are at least 7 players, if not 8 or 9 that should earn minutes ahead of either of them. Especially considering generally Fred keeps it to a rotation of 6 or 7 players, minutes are going to be scarce.
Rotations tighten up at the end of the season. And I think it's a good place to start to see who will be playing big minutes next year. In the postseason, Monte averaged 32 minutes, Hogue 34, Niang 31 (not counting the final two games), Naz 24 minutes, and Thomas 10. That's 131 minutes/game there. The two players lost from last year's team combined for 71 mpg. So I believe, there's only about 70 minutes left to hand out for the upcoming season. BDJ will start, and should be penciled in for about 30 minutes a game. Nader and McKay will likely be the 5th starter/6th man in some fashion and should easily share a combined 40 minutes.
That's it. That's your 200 total player-minutes per game. There aren't another 20 minutes for SDW to make an impact and certainly not 10 minutes for the Greek. You could argue Hogue only sees 25-30, but those extra minutes would go to Nader/McKay. And maybe Naz sees a reduction, but those would go to BDJ first (Kane averaged 35 mpg last year) and I think Custer second as a backup point guard.
With Nader and McKay and Thomas out to start the season, against an easy non-conference schedule, everyone should see minutes. Come the end of the season, I think it'll be Morris, BDJ, Niang, Hogue, Nader, McKay and Naz seeing nearly all the minutes. And I'm OK with that. It's still a deeper, and better, team than they had last year.
Rotations tighten up at the end of the season. And I think it's a good place to start to see who will be playing big minutes next year. In the postseason, Monte averaged 32 minutes, Hogue 34, Niang 31 (not counting the final two games), Naz 24 minutes, and Thomas 10. That's 131 minutes/game there. The two players lost from last year's team combined for 71 mpg. So I believe, there's only about 70 minutes left to hand out for the upcoming season. BDJ will start, and should be penciled in for about 30 minutes a game. Nader and McKay will likely be the 5th starter/6th man in some fashion and should easily share a combined 40 minutes.
That's it. That's your 200 total player-minutes per game. There aren't another 20 minutes for SDW to make an impact and certainly not 10 minutes for the Greek. You could argue Hogue only sees 25-30, but those extra minutes would go to Nader/McKay. And maybe Naz sees a reduction, but those would go to BDJ first (Kane averaged 35 mpg last year) and I think Custer second as a backup point guard.
With Nader and McKay and Thomas out to start the season, against an easy non-conference schedule, everyone should see minutes. Come the end of the season, I think it'll be Morris, BDJ, Niang, Hogue, Nader, McKay and Naz seeing nearly all the minutes. And I'm OK with that. It's still a deeper, and better, team than they had last year.
Saturday, April 5, 2014
Calmer (and More Optimistic) Reflections on the 2013-14 Cyclones Season
NOTE: Just like last year, this thing ran long. I've broken it up into a couple different posts.
It's only been a week but it seems like a month. Last Friday, the Iowa State Cyclones played their last game of the 2013-2014 season. It was hard for some of us to accept, but after some time to reflect and read what the players and others have said, we realize this season was special for all those involved.
This team hit some pretty impressive milestones - winning a preseason tournament, winning the Big 12 tournament, making the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. It set it's share of all-time records too - longest winning streak (14 games to start the season) and most points scored in a season (2989) And got close in a couple others - second most games played (36), second most minutes played (7324), second most field goals made (1062), second most 3 pointers made (301), second most rebounds (1387), second most assists (663) third best win percentage of the last 50 years (77.8%), 5th highest ranking (8th). The Cyclones also have an all-time record over .500 for the first time in their history.
What does it all mean? This team was as entertaining as any since Johnny Orr was the coach and right at the top of most entertaining in all of college basketball this year. There were "big" question marks heading into this year, just like heading into last. All they've done is score more points, and win more games. Scoring went from 73 in 2011-12 to 79 last year to 83PPG this year, leading all major conference schools again. If we've learned anything since Fred has come back home, it's that his teams get better each year. Replacing 60%, 70% of scoring and minutes, doesn't matter.
Hoiberg has also started to dispel the conventional wisdom that you can't score points and win important basketball games. You don't need to average 50 points to win championships. I think next year, the Cyclones start to prove you can score a lot of points and play defense too. Monte brought it against one of the best guards in the nation and Hogue guarded Wiggins pretty well in their meetings. Adding McKay will add a shot blocking dimension they haven't had and Nader adds a fourth forward to the rotation, easing some defensive assignments for Georges. Looking back, I was reminded that ISU went from a 6 man rotation last year to 7 guys this year, and it looks like they'll have 8 for next year. That'll be depth that isn't watered down.
My friend, a Kansas fan, made the remark that if you really wanted to play in a NBA style offense, as a lot of kids say they do, there's nowhere better than Iowa State under Fred Hoiberg. He's also the one that gives Niang a lot of praise. Iowa State's profile within the Big 12 is starting to rise and nationally there's been some favorable press too. The big game against Michigan early in the year really kickstarted all of it. Getting Dickie V on our side doesn't hurt, and respected college basketball pundits like Fran Fraschilla have been effusive with praise too.
The next step is obviously a Big 12 regular season championship. ISU needs to be the team to dethrone Kansas. It was a closer race this year than a lot of people expected but the Cyclones will need to at least split with them next year to truly keep it interesting down the stretch. At first, I thought the double round-robin schedule was good for the Cyclones because they can get used to seeing the elite talent that teams like Texas bring in every year, but I now realize ISU is the team getting scouted. Losses to WVU and Baylor in their second matchups show this. It can be expected that teams will slow down the offense the second time which is why defense will be important to pull out these types of games and win enough for a Big 12 championship.
At this time last year, I wrote the following:
Well, the Cyclones had a great season, didn't they? At one point I commented this could be the greatest Iowa State team ever, and by the records listed above and the success they had in the postseason, I'd say it was the second best team of the last 50 years behind only 1999-00. Now they didn't really compete for the Big 12 regular season title, and missed the Elite Eight, but did win the Big 12 tournament and had more wins and fewer losses than my most optimistic of predictions.
The ceiling has been raised, so too has the baseline. I'd be surprised if we saw more than a single-digit number of losses. Wins in the upper 20's is the new expectation, and with records like that, ISU will be competing for conference championships and the big one in the near future.
It's only been a week but it seems like a month. Last Friday, the Iowa State Cyclones played their last game of the 2013-2014 season. It was hard for some of us to accept, but after some time to reflect and read what the players and others have said, we realize this season was special for all those involved.
This team hit some pretty impressive milestones - winning a preseason tournament, winning the Big 12 tournament, making the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. It set it's share of all-time records too - longest winning streak (14 games to start the season) and most points scored in a season (2989) And got close in a couple others - second most games played (36), second most minutes played (7324), second most field goals made (1062), second most 3 pointers made (301), second most rebounds (1387), second most assists (663) third best win percentage of the last 50 years (77.8%), 5th highest ranking (8th). The Cyclones also have an all-time record over .500 for the first time in their history.
What does it all mean? This team was as entertaining as any since Johnny Orr was the coach and right at the top of most entertaining in all of college basketball this year. There were "big" question marks heading into this year, just like heading into last. All they've done is score more points, and win more games. Scoring went from 73 in 2011-12 to 79 last year to 83PPG this year, leading all major conference schools again. If we've learned anything since Fred has come back home, it's that his teams get better each year. Replacing 60%, 70% of scoring and minutes, doesn't matter.
Hoiberg has also started to dispel the conventional wisdom that you can't score points and win important basketball games. You don't need to average 50 points to win championships. I think next year, the Cyclones start to prove you can score a lot of points and play defense too. Monte brought it against one of the best guards in the nation and Hogue guarded Wiggins pretty well in their meetings. Adding McKay will add a shot blocking dimension they haven't had and Nader adds a fourth forward to the rotation, easing some defensive assignments for Georges. Looking back, I was reminded that ISU went from a 6 man rotation last year to 7 guys this year, and it looks like they'll have 8 for next year. That'll be depth that isn't watered down.
My friend, a Kansas fan, made the remark that if you really wanted to play in a NBA style offense, as a lot of kids say they do, there's nowhere better than Iowa State under Fred Hoiberg. He's also the one that gives Niang a lot of praise. Iowa State's profile within the Big 12 is starting to rise and nationally there's been some favorable press too. The big game against Michigan early in the year really kickstarted all of it. Getting Dickie V on our side doesn't hurt, and respected college basketball pundits like Fran Fraschilla have been effusive with praise too.
The next step is obviously a Big 12 regular season championship. ISU needs to be the team to dethrone Kansas. It was a closer race this year than a lot of people expected but the Cyclones will need to at least split with them next year to truly keep it interesting down the stretch. At first, I thought the double round-robin schedule was good for the Cyclones because they can get used to seeing the elite talent that teams like Texas bring in every year, but I now realize ISU is the team getting scouted. Losses to WVU and Baylor in their second matchups show this. It can be expected that teams will slow down the offense the second time which is why defense will be important to pull out these types of games and win enough for a Big 12 championship.
At this time last year, I wrote the following:
BIG PREDICTIONS
If good season, another 23-11.
If great season, 26-9.
- ISU finishes 3rd in the Big 12 - validating Fred's pay. 7 seed in NCAA. Fred wins two to make it to Sweet Sixteen.
If great season scenario - ISU competes with KU for regular season and tournament championship. Gets a 3 seed. If 3 seed, Elite Eight.
Well, the Cyclones had a great season, didn't they? At one point I commented this could be the greatest Iowa State team ever, and by the records listed above and the success they had in the postseason, I'd say it was the second best team of the last 50 years behind only 1999-00. Now they didn't really compete for the Big 12 regular season title, and missed the Elite Eight, but did win the Big 12 tournament and had more wins and fewer losses than my most optimistic of predictions.
The ceiling has been raised, so too has the baseline. I'd be surprised if we saw more than a single-digit number of losses. Wins in the upper 20's is the new expectation, and with records like that, ISU will be competing for conference championships and the big one in the near future.
Friday, March 28, 2014
Way Too Early Reactions
I was wrong, dead wrong about Iowa State cruising to a victory. I felt like Napier could play that good but didn't expect two others to hit jumpers like that too. The Cyclones got straight up beat in the first half. Every jumper fell for UCONN and every close look rimmed out for ISU. Or so it seemed. They were on a different level.
I thought ISU would come out different in the second half, and to an extent, they did. The action made more open looks to the basket. Dustin Hogue took beast mode to a whole 'nother level with 34 points total. But UCONN switched their game up too. Instead of settling for the long jumpers, they got the ball into the paint and scored some easy buckets.
Here's where I'm disappointed. Kane guarded Napier for much of the first half. Napier had whatever he wanted. Morris guarded Napier most of the second half, and I don't remember Napier getting much of anything. In fact, I think Morris won more than he gave up. So why so long to make the switch?
In the second half, UCONN moved away from the jumper and started attacking the rim. ISU has no rim protectors and UCONN kept making bucket after bucket low. Why wasn't Edozie in late to at least force fouls? I get they wanted offense but Thomas attempted one three point field goal.
As much as it pains me to say this, I think Coach Hoiberg got outcoached. UCONN's offense in the first half torched the defense with the jumper. And in the second half, ISU got worked down low. I thought I'd be the last to say this but Coach Ollie made the adjustments and Hoiberg didn't That's probably an unpopular opinion but one that I'll stick by.
Fully loaded (with Georges) I think ISU rolls UCONN. There were obvious stretches in the first half where the Cyclones offense was stagnant and I think Niang would have pushed through that. His high post looks and moves would have created trouble for the UCONN bigs. But it wasn't to be.
The Iowa State Cyclones got beat tonight by a better team. No ref shenanigans. No questionable clock calls. They just got beat. But a better Cyclone team will emerge next year. And I can't wait.
I thought ISU would come out different in the second half, and to an extent, they did. The action made more open looks to the basket. Dustin Hogue took beast mode to a whole 'nother level with 34 points total. But UCONN switched their game up too. Instead of settling for the long jumpers, they got the ball into the paint and scored some easy buckets.
Here's where I'm disappointed. Kane guarded Napier for much of the first half. Napier had whatever he wanted. Morris guarded Napier most of the second half, and I don't remember Napier getting much of anything. In fact, I think Morris won more than he gave up. So why so long to make the switch?
In the second half, UCONN moved away from the jumper and started attacking the rim. ISU has no rim protectors and UCONN kept making bucket after bucket low. Why wasn't Edozie in late to at least force fouls? I get they wanted offense but Thomas attempted one three point field goal.
As much as it pains me to say this, I think Coach Hoiberg got outcoached. UCONN's offense in the first half torched the defense with the jumper. And in the second half, ISU got worked down low. I thought I'd be the last to say this but Coach Ollie made the adjustments and Hoiberg didn't That's probably an unpopular opinion but one that I'll stick by.
Fully loaded (with Georges) I think ISU rolls UCONN. There were obvious stretches in the first half where the Cyclones offense was stagnant and I think Niang would have pushed through that. His high post looks and moves would have created trouble for the UCONN bigs. But it wasn't to be.
The Iowa State Cyclones got beat tonight by a better team. No ref shenanigans. No questionable clock calls. They just got beat. But a better Cyclone team will emerge next year. And I can't wait.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
DeAndre Kane - 2013-14 Big 12 Newcomer of the Year
I found something I'd worked on over the summer when it was announced DeAndre Kane was coming to ISU. His numbers from Marshall were certainly impressive and I wondered how it would translate to the Cyclones.
Five players have transferred into ISU and started immediately during the Hoiberg era. I looked at their stats from their last year with their former teams and their first year with Iowa State. What did it show?
Unsurprisingly, FG% improves slightly, 3P% improves by 10%, and assists improve by more than 20%. On average, every statistic improves or increases from the transfers season prior to ISU and their first with the Cyclones (except FT% and blocks). DeAndre's stats were already gaudy. If they improve, what will they look like?
Five players have transferred into ISU and started immediately during the Hoiberg era. I looked at their stats from their last year with their former teams and their first year with Iowa State. What did it show?
His stat line would look like this - 18 pts/game, 8.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2 steals. Wow. Those wouldn't be newcomer of the year stats, those would be Big 12 player of the year stats. Marcus Smart last year went 15 points, 4.2 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 3 steals. That was good enough for consensus player of the year.
DeAndre's current line is 14.1 pts, 5.8 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals. That's not quite what I'd calculated above but those are still huge numbers. The logical thing would be to assume that his numbers come down in conference play, but I predict they'll stay the same or get better. He'll play more minutes (29/game so far) and likely will keep up his high usage rate (24.6%).
I'm changing my outlook for DeAndre. He'll finish as a first team all Big 12 player.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
"Fred is good for one extra win in the NCAA's"
While not "technically" true, I still stand by the spirit of this statement. The idea is, some coaches always seem to be winning more games than they should in the tournament, and some coaches always seem to be bowing out early. A couple years back, I found a table that highlighted this using a metric called PASE - performance against seed expectations. You can find an explanation of it here.
Each seed has a historical average number of wins. ISU has been a nine seed and a ten seed the last two years. This means they should have won .56+.65 = 1.21 games between the two years. Iowa State, of course, won one game each of the past two tournaments. This is a total PASE of 2-1.21 = .79 or .395 extra wins per year. Not a whole game more like I had stated. But read this quote from the above article:
And finally, another chart in the above article was very interesting.
These are the top 10 attributes that contribute to a positive PASE.
- ISU isn't outscoring people by 15 (2013 margin of 8.4). BUT, I've said recently, you need to score points to win, and winning games 50-45 doesn't leave you a lot of margin for error in the tournament.
- Fred hasn't been to the elite eight, but I believe when he gets ISU to the second weekend, they'll win to make the Elite Eight.
- Turnovers they were basically +/-0.0 / game. I'd like to explain this away with pace but the opponents have just as many possessions a game as the Cyclones.
- ISU shot 73.1%, fitting this criteria.
- Iowa State's starters scored 72.4% of the points this year, in large part thanks to Tyrus scoring 13 a game. And it's another reason why I think Fred will keep someone in this role again next year, either SDW or Bluford. Keeping the scoring going when the second units are in really keeps the pressure on.
- Royce was an All-American last year, but I don't envision that being an every year occurrence.
- Even if you include Will's scoring as a forward, ISU doesn't meet this criteria. And I don't know that they ever will, but look at next year's squad, with the only scoring returning being Niang and Ejim in the frontcourt.
- ISU *only* outrebounded its opponents by 4.6 a game, but like most of the stats, got better during the conference part of the schedule.
- ISU was senior heavy this year, but Fred hadn't been through a full recruiting cycle yet. Even if SDW didn't redshirt, he wouldn't have started over any of these guys. Next year, I think we'll see two freshman, one sophomore, one junior and one senior start next year. Now, I don't think Fred looks at these types of numbers, but I believe we'll see at least one freshman start every year from here on out.
- ISU has a looooong way to get to a defensive efficiency less than 90. At first glance, it would seem difficult to get guys to play in Fred's system, at a high offensive efficiency rate, that would also play defense. But then I looked at the numbers, and the two teams surrounding ISU in the offensive efficiency rankings are Louisville and Florida. Good company! Those two teams are first and third in defensive efficiency. Fred is one step ahead of us again. It's my belief, his plan all along has been to establish the offense first - done - and then work on the defense. Fun offense brings the fans and the talent. Better athletes brings better defense.
To summarize, Fred Hoiberg is building this team for the tournament, and he's already shown results. I think the Cyclones will continue to exceed expectations in the regular season to make the big tournament, and will continue to have success when they get there.
Each seed has a historical average number of wins. ISU has been a nine seed and a ten seed the last two years. This means they should have won .56+.65 = 1.21 games between the two years. Iowa State, of course, won one game each of the past two tournaments. This is a total PASE of 2-1.21 = .79 or .395 extra wins per year. Not a whole game more like I had stated. But read this quote from the above article:
Generally speaking, a PASE above +.250 shows solid overachievement. A PASE of +.500 represents major over-performance.So Fred is easily in the overachievement category. He certainly isn't the best coach out there. This chart comes from cbssports.com.
The coaches you think are good are backed up by this metric. I referenced Tom Izzo in my previous post and he's second behind Brad Stevens, who has made two improbable runs to the Final Four with Butler. So Fred might not be in the top five, but this metric isn't always positive. If one team is overachieving, another is under achieving. From the cbssports article:
DePaul coach Oliver Purnell owns the worst PASE (-.818), followed by Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy (-.665), Pitt coach Jamie Dixon (-.567), Creighton's Dana Altman (-.515) and Clemson's Brad Brownell (-.446).My feelings on Jamie Dixon are justified! It's tough seeing Larry on that list. His PACE was obviously hurt in 2001.
And finally, another chart in the above article was very interesting.
These are the top 10 attributes that contribute to a positive PASE.
- ISU isn't outscoring people by 15 (2013 margin of 8.4). BUT, I've said recently, you need to score points to win, and winning games 50-45 doesn't leave you a lot of margin for error in the tournament.
- Fred hasn't been to the elite eight, but I believe when he gets ISU to the second weekend, they'll win to make the Elite Eight.
- Turnovers they were basically +/-0.0 / game. I'd like to explain this away with pace but the opponents have just as many possessions a game as the Cyclones.
- ISU shot 73.1%, fitting this criteria.
- Iowa State's starters scored 72.4% of the points this year, in large part thanks to Tyrus scoring 13 a game. And it's another reason why I think Fred will keep someone in this role again next year, either SDW or Bluford. Keeping the scoring going when the second units are in really keeps the pressure on.
- Royce was an All-American last year, but I don't envision that being an every year occurrence.
- Even if you include Will's scoring as a forward, ISU doesn't meet this criteria. And I don't know that they ever will, but look at next year's squad, with the only scoring returning being Niang and Ejim in the frontcourt.
- ISU *only* outrebounded its opponents by 4.6 a game, but like most of the stats, got better during the conference part of the schedule.
- ISU was senior heavy this year, but Fred hadn't been through a full recruiting cycle yet. Even if SDW didn't redshirt, he wouldn't have started over any of these guys. Next year, I think we'll see two freshman, one sophomore, one junior and one senior start next year. Now, I don't think Fred looks at these types of numbers, but I believe we'll see at least one freshman start every year from here on out.
- ISU has a looooong way to get to a defensive efficiency less than 90. At first glance, it would seem difficult to get guys to play in Fred's system, at a high offensive efficiency rate, that would also play defense. But then I looked at the numbers, and the two teams surrounding ISU in the offensive efficiency rankings are Louisville and Florida. Good company! Those two teams are first and third in defensive efficiency. Fred is one step ahead of us again. It's my belief, his plan all along has been to establish the offense first - done - and then work on the defense. Fun offense brings the fans and the talent. Better athletes brings better defense.
To summarize, Fred Hoiberg is building this team for the tournament, and he's already shown results. I think the Cyclones will continue to exceed expectations in the regular season to make the big tournament, and will continue to have success when they get there.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
A Qualitative Review of the Cyclones 2012-2013 MBB Season
Many games in the 2012-2013 season were disappointing, but the season was anything was not. This team was the most entertaining to watch that I can remember. Royce White was special last year, but this year's team changed the way I watch basketball. 'Hoiball' is in full effect. ISU teams have been uptempo in the past, but they were on the edge of being reckless. This edition scored a lot of points, but they also did it with efficiency, shooting at a high percentage overall, from three, from the line. They rebounded and dished assists. All five players had a green light from anywhere on the court, which made them tough to defend.
I say they changed the way I watch basketball because now when I'm watching other teams play, I see someone left open and yell "SHOOT!" I wanted ISU's players to take MORE shots. The Cyclones and Fred got the national recognition they deserved through a couple close games against Kansas, and another good showing in the NCAA tournament. Other fans took notice. Talking heads took notice. Ole Miss heel Marshall Henderson took notice. Coaches took notice (see Bill Self's 'T' routine, and Travis Ford trying to copy it). We can only hope recruits took notice. What shooter or point guard wouldn't want to play in a system like this.
- Fred is quickly becoming a great coach. I was worried about the X's and O's, but not any more. This is the third year he's tailored the team to his talent. The scoring this year was, in part, a way to mask the limited defense this group could play. I believe we'll see something different next year (more below).
- Fred is good for one extra win in the NCAA's. What do I mean? He wins one more game than the team is seeded. Tom Izzo is probably the best example of this, MSU beats expectations every spring. Winning a game each as a 9 seed and as a 10 is an accomplishment. Look at the coaches they've beaten - Calhoun and Mike Brey. The teams - UCONN and Notre Dame. And they crushed them. The teams they've lost to haven't been slouches either - Kentucky with Calipari and Ohio State with Thad Matta. Fred ain't no Jamie Dixon.
- Tyrus McGee will go down as one of my favorite Cyclones ever. He was like the Super Jake Sullivan. Defenses finally figured out Jake, and his team wasn't helping much toward the end, but it wasn't like all Tyrus' shots were wide open either. Favorite moment was when, after dubbing him "Mc3", Doherty yelled "chalk it up!" as the ball left Tyrus hands for another contested three. Of course it went in.
- Chris Babb started both years in the best two year stretch outside of Fred's playing days and Jamaal Tinsley. Not saying he was the reason why, but I don't think it was a coincidence either. Tough to watch his college career end the way it did.
- Melvin Ejim will start 4 years in what could be the best four year stretch since... ever? Without going into too many numbers, it looks to compare favorably with Orr's last year and Floyd's first three. Especially if ISU makes a deeper run in the tournament next year. Again, I don't think it's a coincidence. Ejim has made a step change improvement every year. More in my early predictions post.
- Korie Lucious bought in earlier, and harder than Chris Allen did the year prior. I dubbed him Chris Allen 2.0 early, because he'd bring the ball down and shoot. Or turn it over. But by the end of the year, he was running the offense and taking wide open looks. All of his numbers improved greatly over the year.
- I still think we could have seen more out of Clyburn. Sorry. Dude has a NBA build, can jump, can get to the rim. Has shown at times the ability to shoot. But the ball handling got worse if anything. He disappeared on offense at times. Defended all 5 positions, but not real well. Will had all the advantages (team, tempo, wins) that Craig Brackens didn't.
- Georges Niang. Who could have expected so much? Even Hoiberg had to be pleasantly surprised. Opposing fans knew all about him, and Jim Nance might have been his biggest fan for one day in March. I'll write more about what to expect next year, but the transformation this chubby kid who couldn't shoot or run at the beginning of the season to vocal leader and offensive focal point at the end was spectacular. Which brings me to the final point about this season...
- Individual improvement. Last year, you felt like the players progressed into what they could be. But this year, you feel like everyone became better than they SHOULD be. And that's what makes me the most excited about the Fred Hoiberg era. We can expect everyone to improve year to year and then also during the season. The players coming in next year and beyond should be decent NCAA players from the start, but any of them could improve into something truly special by the time their ISU careers are over. To steal a line from the football team, I'm ALL IN and can't wait until next year.
I say they changed the way I watch basketball because now when I'm watching other teams play, I see someone left open and yell "SHOOT!" I wanted ISU's players to take MORE shots. The Cyclones and Fred got the national recognition they deserved through a couple close games against Kansas, and another good showing in the NCAA tournament. Other fans took notice. Talking heads took notice. Ole Miss heel Marshall Henderson took notice. Coaches took notice (see Bill Self's 'T' routine, and Travis Ford trying to copy it). We can only hope recruits took notice. What shooter or point guard wouldn't want to play in a system like this.
- Fred is quickly becoming a great coach. I was worried about the X's and O's, but not any more. This is the third year he's tailored the team to his talent. The scoring this year was, in part, a way to mask the limited defense this group could play. I believe we'll see something different next year (more below).
- Fred is good for one extra win in the NCAA's. What do I mean? He wins one more game than the team is seeded. Tom Izzo is probably the best example of this, MSU beats expectations every spring. Winning a game each as a 9 seed and as a 10 is an accomplishment. Look at the coaches they've beaten - Calhoun and Mike Brey. The teams - UCONN and Notre Dame. And they crushed them. The teams they've lost to haven't been slouches either - Kentucky with Calipari and Ohio State with Thad Matta. Fred ain't no Jamie Dixon.
- Tyrus McGee will go down as one of my favorite Cyclones ever. He was like the Super Jake Sullivan. Defenses finally figured out Jake, and his team wasn't helping much toward the end, but it wasn't like all Tyrus' shots were wide open either. Favorite moment was when, after dubbing him "Mc3", Doherty yelled "chalk it up!" as the ball left Tyrus hands for another contested three. Of course it went in.
- Chris Babb started both years in the best two year stretch outside of Fred's playing days and Jamaal Tinsley. Not saying he was the reason why, but I don't think it was a coincidence either. Tough to watch his college career end the way it did.
- Melvin Ejim will start 4 years in what could be the best four year stretch since... ever? Without going into too many numbers, it looks to compare favorably with Orr's last year and Floyd's first three. Especially if ISU makes a deeper run in the tournament next year. Again, I don't think it's a coincidence. Ejim has made a step change improvement every year. More in my early predictions post.
- Korie Lucious bought in earlier, and harder than Chris Allen did the year prior. I dubbed him Chris Allen 2.0 early, because he'd bring the ball down and shoot. Or turn it over. But by the end of the year, he was running the offense and taking wide open looks. All of his numbers improved greatly over the year.
- I still think we could have seen more out of Clyburn. Sorry. Dude has a NBA build, can jump, can get to the rim. Has shown at times the ability to shoot. But the ball handling got worse if anything. He disappeared on offense at times. Defended all 5 positions, but not real well. Will had all the advantages (team, tempo, wins) that Craig Brackens didn't.
- Georges Niang. Who could have expected so much? Even Hoiberg had to be pleasantly surprised. Opposing fans knew all about him, and Jim Nance might have been his biggest fan for one day in March. I'll write more about what to expect next year, but the transformation this chubby kid who couldn't shoot or run at the beginning of the season to vocal leader and offensive focal point at the end was spectacular. Which brings me to the final point about this season...
- Individual improvement. Last year, you felt like the players progressed into what they could be. But this year, you feel like everyone became better than they SHOULD be. And that's what makes me the most excited about the Fred Hoiberg era. We can expect everyone to improve year to year and then also during the season. The players coming in next year and beyond should be decent NCAA players from the start, but any of them could improve into something truly special by the time their ISU careers are over. To steal a line from the football team, I'm ALL IN and can't wait until next year.
Monday, February 27, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/27/12
Well, who could have envisioned this? Iowa State knocking on the door of the NCAA tournament, a chance at single-digit losses, Scotty and Melvin stepping up, Royce exceeding expectations, Fred can coach. It's truly incredible. It's rare the season that satisfies everyone, but this has to be it. I can't imagine anyone expecting a trip to the big dance when this season started. Let's just enjoy the ride.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 30 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 22-9 (12-6 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 33 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
There's not much to point out now. The record really speaks for itself. Any wins from here on out should be considered icing on the cake. The Cyclones offense always had the possibility of being explosive, what's surprising is the defense is starting to get stingy now. Babb has advanced from being a lockdown defender to more active in forcing turnovers. He's an important asset. What's most impressive is Royce's improvement on the defensive end. He's spent most of the season avoiding fouls but has been more imposing over the last few games. He'll need to be more agressive for this team to be successful in the Big XII tournament and NCAAs.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/4/12
Today's effort will be a little more substantial than last week. Most NCAA Tournament prognosticators have ISU making the field at around an 11 seed. I believe it too. The ceiling gets raised every week for Iowa State.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Turning Point for ISU Athletics?
With the recent success of ISU men's basketball I couldn't help but take a step back and look at how this 2011-2012 academic year is progressing.
Football
It started with a football season that was destined for at best mediocrity and a below .500 record. What turned out doesn't appear to be much better with the final record reading 6-7. However, for a team that was favored it just TWO games all year long this is monumental. Add in a thrilling victory over Iowa, some domination over Texas Tech and a victory over the #2 team in the nation and ISU football now has several monkeys off their back.
Maybe more important for future success was the publicity ISU got throughout the end of the season because of Paul Rhoads. As with any successful coach, other schools will come calling. Rhoads answered those calls with a 10-year extension. An almost unheard of length for a college football coach. ISU has had consistency before at the head coach position in Dan McCarney. He brought ISU from the dead to having a pulse. It looks like Rhoads is now primed to take this program to being recognized nationally. If you have any doubts check out some of the offer lists of this recruiting class. This kid, Gary Simon, will choose on National Signing Day between Arkansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. That is significant. Sure, ISU is still going to arm wrestle with some MAC schools over a few recruits. Almost every BCS program does. However, athletes are beginning to take notice of what is going on in Ames. They see a passionate coach that doesn't appear to be leaving any time soon, possibility of early playing time and a chance to take down the big boys on ESPN. ISU hasn't got this much publicity since the year of Seneca. Even then, their publicity was short lived. The key for ISU going forward is consistency. This means making bowl games every year, knocking off an upset a year and periodically sneaking up to 8 or 9 wins. ISU has consistency in the coaching staff, a very, very young offense and a wizard calling the shots on defense. Football may never look back.
Basketball
Pollard took a calculated risk in hiring Fred Hoiberg just a season ago. As an ISU legend he was a popular hire with the fan base. If anyone would get the support of the fan base it would be Freddy. Fred had ZERO coaching experience when he was hired. Although at times it has reared its ugly head, Fred has also shown, in my opinion, what is even more important: the ability to recruit talent.
Many were skeptical of Hoiberg bringing in transfer players. Afterall, there was a reason that they were leaving their former schools. That didn't stop Hoiberg from bringing in a former 19th ranked recruit, a player with two Final Fours under his belt and two other significant contributors. As if that wasn't enough for him he brought in the point guard from a Final Four team and the second leading scorer in the Mountain West behind Jimmer Fredette. According to multiple Hoiberg quotes Clyburn has the most NBA potential out of anyone on the team.
It does appear as though he has slowed down on the transfer front, but he is competing with the big boys for the diaper-dandies now. Hoiberg has a stigma to him that is hard to ignore. The guy has the looks and style to steal any mom's heart. He has the NBA contacts and sales pitch to steal an 18 year olds heart. There is just something to be said for having a plethora of NBA scouts in the stands every home conference game.
Young basketball players are selfish now. They want to shoot, they want to score the want to get into the league. Hoiberg is offering every kid this opportunity. I am a firm believer in the thought that the smartest coach on the floor is the one with the best players. Hoiberg is growing as a coach, but his knack for recruiting is hard to ignore.
As we sit here six games into the conference season, ISU has hope once again of making it into the NCAA tournament. This is how it is supposed to be at ISU right? Even the last time ISU made the tournament they started 0-5 in the conference. ISU is 4-2 with close losses to two separate top-10 teams. The point of the matter is that once again ISU is looking toward post-season play. Hilton Magic is coming back slowly and recruits are looking towards Ames, Iowa as place to spend their collegiate career.
I realize there is more to ISU than just football and men's basketball. Let's be real. Those two sports run the athletic department at a majority of universities. What I enjoy most about these teams is they put a product on the field and court that I can be proud of. Their style of play is fun to watch and I am filled with optimism once again. I am not asking for a National Championship (give it a year or two), but I enjoy watching every game knowing there is a chance to win, not just cover the spread. ISU has long been the underdog and for the first time in a while it appears they are biting back.
Football
It started with a football season that was destined for at best mediocrity and a below .500 record. What turned out doesn't appear to be much better with the final record reading 6-7. However, for a team that was favored it just TWO games all year long this is monumental. Add in a thrilling victory over Iowa, some domination over Texas Tech and a victory over the #2 team in the nation and ISU football now has several monkeys off their back.
Maybe more important for future success was the publicity ISU got throughout the end of the season because of Paul Rhoads. As with any successful coach, other schools will come calling. Rhoads answered those calls with a 10-year extension. An almost unheard of length for a college football coach. ISU has had consistency before at the head coach position in Dan McCarney. He brought ISU from the dead to having a pulse. It looks like Rhoads is now primed to take this program to being recognized nationally. If you have any doubts check out some of the offer lists of this recruiting class. This kid, Gary Simon, will choose on National Signing Day between Arkansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. That is significant. Sure, ISU is still going to arm wrestle with some MAC schools over a few recruits. Almost every BCS program does. However, athletes are beginning to take notice of what is going on in Ames. They see a passionate coach that doesn't appear to be leaving any time soon, possibility of early playing time and a chance to take down the big boys on ESPN. ISU hasn't got this much publicity since the year of Seneca. Even then, their publicity was short lived. The key for ISU going forward is consistency. This means making bowl games every year, knocking off an upset a year and periodically sneaking up to 8 or 9 wins. ISU has consistency in the coaching staff, a very, very young offense and a wizard calling the shots on defense. Football may never look back.
Basketball
Pollard took a calculated risk in hiring Fred Hoiberg just a season ago. As an ISU legend he was a popular hire with the fan base. If anyone would get the support of the fan base it would be Freddy. Fred had ZERO coaching experience when he was hired. Although at times it has reared its ugly head, Fred has also shown, in my opinion, what is even more important: the ability to recruit talent.
Many were skeptical of Hoiberg bringing in transfer players. Afterall, there was a reason that they were leaving their former schools. That didn't stop Hoiberg from bringing in a former 19th ranked recruit, a player with two Final Fours under his belt and two other significant contributors. As if that wasn't enough for him he brought in the point guard from a Final Four team and the second leading scorer in the Mountain West behind Jimmer Fredette. According to multiple Hoiberg quotes Clyburn has the most NBA potential out of anyone on the team.
It does appear as though he has slowed down on the transfer front, but he is competing with the big boys for the diaper-dandies now. Hoiberg has a stigma to him that is hard to ignore. The guy has the looks and style to steal any mom's heart. He has the NBA contacts and sales pitch to steal an 18 year olds heart. There is just something to be said for having a plethora of NBA scouts in the stands every home conference game.
Young basketball players are selfish now. They want to shoot, they want to score the want to get into the league. Hoiberg is offering every kid this opportunity. I am a firm believer in the thought that the smartest coach on the floor is the one with the best players. Hoiberg is growing as a coach, but his knack for recruiting is hard to ignore.
As we sit here six games into the conference season, ISU has hope once again of making it into the NCAA tournament. This is how it is supposed to be at ISU right? Even the last time ISU made the tournament they started 0-5 in the conference. ISU is 4-2 with close losses to two separate top-10 teams. The point of the matter is that once again ISU is looking toward post-season play. Hilton Magic is coming back slowly and recruits are looking towards Ames, Iowa as place to spend their collegiate career.
I realize there is more to ISU than just football and men's basketball. Let's be real. Those two sports run the athletic department at a majority of universities. What I enjoy most about these teams is they put a product on the field and court that I can be proud of. Their style of play is fun to watch and I am filled with optimism once again. I am not asking for a National Championship (give it a year or two), but I enjoy watching every game knowing there is a chance to win, not just cover the spread. ISU has long been the underdog and for the first time in a while it appears they are biting back.
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