Somebody wanted my analysis of yesterday's game, so here it is. The offense had a great game against what had been a very stout Texas defense. Sam Richardson set a record with 37 completions last week and nearly matched it with 36 last night. Richardson was accurate too, completing 65%, and pushing his season percentage to a very respectable 61%. A Mangino-coached unit can be expected to throw the ball a bunch but this is unprecedented for Iowa State. Sam is on pace to set season records in attempts (Wallace, 443), completions (Arnaud, 247), and touchdowns (Bandhauer, 20), with an outside shot at completion percentage (Wallace, Jantz, .621) and yards (Wallace, 3245). There's one more record he's on pace to break - lowest interception percentage. Richardson's current percentage is 2.1%, ahead of Arnaud's 2.5% in 2008. In other words, he could end up being the least turnover prone QB in ISU HISTORY. That puts things in perspective a bit.
Mangino seems to be getting back into the play-calling groove. It's improved every week and he's really starting to get the most out of all 'his' players. People forget he hasn't called a game in 5 years, since he was at Kansas. In his first year, he's had to make his scheme fit the existing players instead of finding players to fit his scheme. Of everything about the Cyclones, his influence on the offense now and in the future excites me the most.
What worries me the most about the future is the continued stagnation of the defense. Once again, two of our best defensive players (Knott, 3rd in tackles and Brackens, 8th in tackles) as of the middle of the season, weren't in the starting lineup the first game of the season. The personnel decisions on that side of the ball have been suspect for the last couple years. ISU needs to win their early games to go to a bowl game, and to win those games, they need to play their best players from the very first snap.
Jared Brackens is getting a bad rap for allowing the long pass late that gave the Longhorns the go ahead touchdown. I think he did the best he could, but was put in a bad spot. Brackens, a linebacker, shouldn't have had to cover Jaxon Shipley a senior wide receiver, without help over the top. If the two corners were covering the outside receivers, one of the two safeties should have been available to cover the slot. At the least, they should have had the safeties in a two-deep zone available to help the man coverage underneath. Especially considering Texas needed about 30 yards in 28 seconds for a long field goal attempt. The coaching on the defensive side of the ball needs to improve.
Updating a previous 'feature', I've got ISU projected for just over 4 total wins for the year. I guess that'd be an improvement on last year.
New Feature!!! - I'd always wanted some way to measure ISU's football team against all others. Similar to a kenpom for college football. The closest thing is the former BCS standings, which were calculated for any team that was in the top 25 of either poll or the computer rankings. The BCS is over, but the site bcsguru.com still maintains the rankings, albeit with a slightly different formula.
ISU is not on the bcsguru list. And rarely found itself on the BCS final standings. So the best I can do is use the six computer rankings, which are available for every D-I team. I'll use the same method the BCS used, throwing out the top and bottom rankings and averaging the remaining 4. Using this method, ISU's current ranking is 80th, out of 128 FBS/Div I-A schools. I wish I had context for that ranking but I don't. Maybe my next project will be to calculate their year-end ranking as far back as I can.
Showing posts with label kenpom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label kenpom. Show all posts
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Monday, February 27, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/27/12
Well, who could have envisioned this? Iowa State knocking on the door of the NCAA tournament, a chance at single-digit losses, Scotty and Melvin stepping up, Royce exceeding expectations, Fred can coach. It's truly incredible. It's rare the season that satisfies everyone, but this has to be it. I can't imagine anyone expecting a trip to the big dance when this season started. Let's just enjoy the ride.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 30 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 22-9 (12-6 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 33 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
There's not much to point out now. The record really speaks for itself. Any wins from here on out should be considered icing on the cake. The Cyclones offense always had the possibility of being explosive, what's surprising is the defense is starting to get stingy now. Babb has advanced from being a lockdown defender to more active in forcing turnovers. He's an important asset. What's most impressive is Royce's improvement on the defensive end. He's spent most of the season avoiding fouls but has been more imposing over the last few games. He'll need to be more agressive for this team to be successful in the Big XII tournament and NCAAs.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/4/12
Today's effort will be a little more substantial than last week. Most NCAA Tournament prognosticators have ISU making the field at around an 11 seed. I believe it too. The ceiling gets raised every week for Iowa State.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 1/4/12
I like writing these while watching the games, so once again, tonight's game against Texas isn't included. However, fueled by a good first half defensive showing and prodigious offensive output (with the notable exception of free throws), Iowa States rankings should improve.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 83 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
Revisiting last week's prediction - Bubu Palo has played a little more (40.2 percent of minutes vs. 40 percent) but more importantly, his usage is up over the last three games (20.1 percent of possessions used vs. 19.3). I predicted this would help Iowa State's turnover percentage on defense. It doesn't appear to have had an effect (18.3 vs. 18.5).
However, Bubu's fouls against has risen to 7.0 per 40 minutes of play. This is the best on ISU (Royce White is second at 6.0) and good for 25th nationally. This stat plays into one of the four factors - free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This stat has increased from .437 just a couple of weeks ago up to .455, good for 32nd in the country. Why would this be important? It means the team is getting the opportunity to score with the time stopped. Unfortunately for Bubu, the added play seems to have had an adverse effect. He's banged up with a wrist injury and seems to be a step slower than earlier this year. His minutes are up 15% over last year and usage is up 35%.
A little qualitative bonus note - it seems like Iowa State has figured out how to allow Royce White bring the ball up the court. It was effective tonight (vs. Texas) against man defense. The big man guarding White had to come out to him at the top of the lane and allowed White to either penetrate or kick to a shooter if the big man got help. It continued to stink against zone, where the big man can hang back in the paint and White was picked up by a guard. Also the zone allows more rotation to cover the shooters and minimizes the passing lanes. ISU needs to be quick to adapt to changing defenses to continue this effectiveness.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 83 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
Revisiting last week's prediction - Bubu Palo has played a little more (40.2 percent of minutes vs. 40 percent) but more importantly, his usage is up over the last three games (20.1 percent of possessions used vs. 19.3). I predicted this would help Iowa State's turnover percentage on defense. It doesn't appear to have had an effect (18.3 vs. 18.5).
However, Bubu's fouls against has risen to 7.0 per 40 minutes of play. This is the best on ISU (Royce White is second at 6.0) and good for 25th nationally. This stat plays into one of the four factors - free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This stat has increased from .437 just a couple of weeks ago up to .455, good for 32nd in the country. Why would this be important? It means the team is getting the opportunity to score with the time stopped. Unfortunately for Bubu, the added play seems to have had an adverse effect. He's banged up with a wrist injury and seems to be a step slower than earlier this year. His minutes are up 15% over last year and usage is up 35%.
A little qualitative bonus note - it seems like Iowa State has figured out how to allow Royce White bring the ball up the court. It was effective tonight (vs. Texas) against man defense. The big man guarding White had to come out to him at the top of the lane and allowed White to either penetrate or kick to a shooter if the big man got help. It continued to stink against zone, where the big man can hang back in the paint and White was picked up by a guard. Also the zone allows more rotation to cover the shooters and minimizes the passing lanes. ISU needs to be quick to adapt to changing defenses to continue this effectiveness.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
ISU Basketball Rankings for 12/18/11
These don't include today's game, but it won't help the rankings any. Statistics aside, if this team doesn't start playing more consistently and giving up big scoring runs, they won't be competitive in the Big XII.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 77 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (7-11 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
It's remarkable how close these two projections are. I think ISU fans should be happy with a record like this. A trip to the big dance is unlikely, and this would likely mean a NIT berth.
Anyone who follows kenpom.com, knows the significance of the four factors. They are effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. ISU ranks very well in all categories on offense, however, they are lacking when it comes to defense in one particular category - turnover percentage. In fact, ISU only causes a turnover on 18.5% of their opponents possessions, ranking 283rd in NCAA Div 1.
Here's my take - ISU doesn't have a true point guard, that's obvious. While most will focus on the effect on the offensive side of the game, it affects the defense as well. Without a true point guard presence, there's no on-ball pressure in the half court. I hesitate to say that most turnovers come from the point guard position because I don't have the stats to back it up, but it's safe to say for most teams (ISU an unfortunate exception), the point guard handles the ball more than the other players. Thus, on a per-possession basis, it's not unreasonable to think the point guard position would have more turnovers.
Here's my solution - play Bubu Palo more. Again, no stats to back me up (what's up Ken?), but it looks like he gives more pressure on the defensive end, not to mention on offense (next week's update?). Scholarship or not, he needs to play more.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 77 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (7-11 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
It's remarkable how close these two projections are. I think ISU fans should be happy with a record like this. A trip to the big dance is unlikely, and this would likely mean a NIT berth.
Anyone who follows kenpom.com, knows the significance of the four factors. They are effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. ISU ranks very well in all categories on offense, however, they are lacking when it comes to defense in one particular category - turnover percentage. In fact, ISU only causes a turnover on 18.5% of their opponents possessions, ranking 283rd in NCAA Div 1.
Here's my take - ISU doesn't have a true point guard, that's obvious. While most will focus on the effect on the offensive side of the game, it affects the defense as well. Without a true point guard presence, there's no on-ball pressure in the half court. I hesitate to say that most turnovers come from the point guard position because I don't have the stats to back it up, but it's safe to say for most teams (ISU an unfortunate exception), the point guard handles the ball more than the other players. Thus, on a per-possession basis, it's not unreasonable to think the point guard position would have more turnovers.
Here's my solution - play Bubu Palo more. Again, no stats to back me up (what's up Ken?), but it looks like he gives more pressure on the defensive end, not to mention on offense (next week's update?). Scholarship or not, he needs to play more.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Kenpom and Sagarin Rankings for ISU Update 12/7/2011
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 81 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (7-11 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 65 (5th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Rank - 81 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (7-11 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 65 (5th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Surprisingly, Iowa State's rankings have risen, even though the team has lost 3 games and hasn't looked very sharp. It's tough to figure out what to make of this. The rating for kenpom has increased from .5972 to .7097, which makes the better projections make sense. However, the Sagarin rating has only moved from 78.93 to 80.59, not exactly a step change. More importantly, the rest of the conference has taken a huge drop. Texas, for example, has dropped from 89.65 to 77.89. Again, it takes two teams to play a game and other teams' drops have obviously helped Iowa State's projected record.
There's a hundred things I could glean from the statistics at kenpom.com, but I'll highlight just one statistic during each of these updates. We can understand more about the Cyclones from these very unique stats. This week, I'll take an easy one.
Offensive Efficiency - 108.1, rank 43rd
This is a good offensive squad for the Cyclones. Obvious? Well, this stat backs it up. This is somewhat surprising because of the cold shooting ISU has had the last couple of weeks. Of course, they should be good, the starting five are out there because they're the best offensive players. It's essentially four shooting guards and Royce White. Chris Allen is a bit of a chucker, Ejim is really slumping, Christopherson has been struggling having to run the point and they haven't really run much offense for White in the post. Yet, still, this offense has been successful. It's only the 6th best offense in the Big XII right now, but really has a chance to be something special.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Kenpom and Sagarin Rankings for ISU Updated
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 101 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 14-17 (3-15 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 15-16 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 85 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 14-17 (5-13 in Big XII)
Iowa State's rankings have risen after 3 games and I expect we'll see that continue through the non-conference schedule. Unfortunately, this happened last year as well, and the early ratings were a better prediction of conference success than their rating after tearing up one of the easiest non-conference schedules (340th out of 345).
Rank - 101 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 14-17 (3-15 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 15-16 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 85 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 14-17 (5-13 in Big XII)
Iowa State's rankings have risen after 3 games and I expect we'll see that continue through the non-conference schedule. Unfortunately, this happened last year as well, and the early ratings were a better prediction of conference success than their rating after tearing up one of the easiest non-conference schedules (340th out of 345).
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Kenpom.com Preseason Rankings for the Cyclones
I just got back into Kenpom.com, one of my favorite web sites. And its always interesting to follow the Cyclones through the season. Here are the Cyclones preseason numbers.
Rank - 120 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 10-21 (2-16 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 14-17 (5-13 in Big XII)
None of the other statistics have much meaning right now, so lets compare to last years team. The only number I could find was preseason rank from kenpom - 175. So that's an improvement.
Last years' actual results.
Kenpom final ranking - 81
Record - 16-16 (3-13 in Big XII, 12th out of 12)
Is Ken Pomeroy's formula predicting a better season than last year? It's tough to say, without seeing the full preseason numbers from 2010. Coming into the 2010 season, ISU had lost players accounting for 69% of its minutes. Add a new coach and the season's outcome seemed tough to predict. This season, players accounting for 57% of the minutes won't be returning, but the coach stayed the same and ostensibly, the style of play. Pomeroy's preseason predictions should be more accurate for this year's team.
Two teams make a game. Iowa State's opponents could be overrated or underrated, too. That's why the projected aggregate record is a better prediction, which spells an improvement in conference play but a step back overall. And another year without a NCAA bid. Let's hope kenpom.com is wrong just this one time.
Rank - 120 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 10-21 (2-16 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 14-17 (5-13 in Big XII)
None of the other statistics have much meaning right now, so lets compare to last years team. The only number I could find was preseason rank from kenpom - 175. So that's an improvement.
Last years' actual results.
Kenpom final ranking - 81
Record - 16-16 (3-13 in Big XII, 12th out of 12)
Is Ken Pomeroy's formula predicting a better season than last year? It's tough to say, without seeing the full preseason numbers from 2010. Coming into the 2010 season, ISU had lost players accounting for 69% of its minutes. Add a new coach and the season's outcome seemed tough to predict. This season, players accounting for 57% of the minutes won't be returning, but the coach stayed the same and ostensibly, the style of play. Pomeroy's preseason predictions should be more accurate for this year's team.
Two teams make a game. Iowa State's opponents could be overrated or underrated, too. That's why the projected aggregate record is a better prediction, which spells an improvement in conference play but a step back overall. And another year without a NCAA bid. Let's hope kenpom.com is wrong just this one time.
Saturday, March 5, 2011
NCAA Tournament Selection Process
I caught this on kenpom.com. It describes the NCAA tournament selection process. It's a lot more democratic than I expected it to be. Committee members who are affiliated with a team participate in the discussion but remove themselves from the voting. Most teams are voted on many, many times before they are selected for the tournament and then again when they are seeded. Here's the write-up on the process:
http://www.midmajority.com/p/1296
It looks like the big names probably have an edge, especially early in the process. The further it goes along, the more it's up to the numbers. How exactly, is up to the individual voter, but conference affiliation or actual game play gets clouded by the numbers. The committee makes extensive use of the following selection sheet:
http://www.bbstate.com/schools/DUKE/sheet
Assuming the committee members are knowledgable about college basketball and don't have unconscious biases, they probably come up with the best tournament possible. Between the last four in and the first four out it's likely a pickem, but it looks like at that point it's so close that one more quality win would be enough to take a team off the bubble. So ultimately, it's up to the team to prove that it belongs.
At the end of the article, the placement of teams is discussed. I still don't like the home-court feel that the top seeds get, but I get that the NCAA wants people to show up to the games without spending a ton of money.
After reading these, there isn't much to argue about with the system. Even if there are biases coming into the selection process, they're likely pounded out of the members over the 5 days. If a team is good enough, it'll make it. If it's on the bubble and makes it, it's lucky. If a team just missed, it should have won another game or two.
http://www.midmajority.com/p/1296
It looks like the big names probably have an edge, especially early in the process. The further it goes along, the more it's up to the numbers. How exactly, is up to the individual voter, but conference affiliation or actual game play gets clouded by the numbers. The committee makes extensive use of the following selection sheet:
http://www.bbstate.com/schools/DUKE/sheet
Assuming the committee members are knowledgable about college basketball and don't have unconscious biases, they probably come up with the best tournament possible. Between the last four in and the first four out it's likely a pickem, but it looks like at that point it's so close that one more quality win would be enough to take a team off the bubble. So ultimately, it's up to the team to prove that it belongs.
At the end of the article, the placement of teams is discussed. I still don't like the home-court feel that the top seeds get, but I get that the NCAA wants people to show up to the games without spending a ton of money.
After reading these, there isn't much to argue about with the system. Even if there are biases coming into the selection process, they're likely pounded out of the members over the 5 days. If a team is good enough, it'll make it. If it's on the bubble and makes it, it's lucky. If a team just missed, it should have won another game or two.
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