Ten Stats That Will Leave You Optimistic About 2015 Iowa State Football

With college football season right around the corner I figured it was time to re-establish myself on the blog. After some research I've found myself more optimistic than most when it comes to the upcoming ISU football season.  Here are ten statistics that will leave you feeling the same. 

1) The last coach to go 5-19 over a two year span in Ames (Gene Chizik) won a national championship just two years later. Paul Rhoads is 5-19 in his last two seasons. 

2) The incoming freshman class has never lost a Big 12 game. NEVER. 

3) Top 10 good?  Maybe. ISU finished in the top ten in the Big 12 in EVERY statistical category last season. 

4) Playoff?! We're talking about playoffs?!  If they get there it's important to note that a likely opponent (Alabama) hasn't beat Iowa State since the 2001 Independence Bowl.  

5) Iowa State's only winning season in the last decade was preceded by a winless Big 12 slate the year before. Last season? 0-9 in the Big 12. 

6) The Cyclones have now had three 2-10 seasons in their history. In the previous two they responded with seven win seasons including a CHAMPIONSHIP in each of those seasons (2004 Independence Bowl, 2009 Insight Bowl). 

7) Lucky #7. Paul Rhoads is entering his 7th season as head coach. The last coach to make it to their seventh season won seven games (Dan McCarney 7-5 in 2001).

8) Las Vegas has Iowa State's odds of winning the Big 12 at 100-1. There are only eight teams with better odds. 

9) Last season ISU had a money line of +100000 to win the National Championship. This year? +40000.  Remember folks, in this case the lower the number, the better the odds. 

10) With the completion of the "South Endzone Project" Jack Trice will now have the third largest capacity in the Big 12 behind Texas and Oklahoma. This new "Big Three" trio of OU, UT and ISU has combined to win 10 out of the last 15 Big 12 championships. As Meatloaf says, "two out of three ain't bad"!

Cyclone fans let me caution you, #AStormIsComing

ISU @ Texas, October 18, 2014

Somebody wanted my analysis of yesterday's game, so here it is.  The offense had a great game against what had been a very stout Texas defense.  Sam Richardson set a record with 37 completions last week and nearly matched it with 36 last night.  Richardson was accurate too, completing 65%, and pushing his season percentage to a very respectable 61%.  A Mangino-coached unit can be expected to throw the ball a bunch but this is unprecedented for Iowa State.  Sam is on pace to set season records in attempts (Wallace, 443), completions (Arnaud, 247),  and touchdowns (Bandhauer, 20), with an outside shot at completion percentage (Wallace, Jantz, .621) and yards (Wallace, 3245).  There's one more record he's on pace to break - lowest interception percentage.  Richardson's current percentage is 2.1%, ahead of Arnaud's 2.5% in 2008.  In other words, he could end up being the least turnover prone QB in ISU HISTORY.  That puts things in perspective a bit.

Mangino seems to be getting back into the play-calling groove.  It's improved every week and he's really starting to get the most out of all 'his' players.  People forget he hasn't called a game in 5 years, since he was at Kansas.  In his first year, he's had to make his scheme fit the existing players instead of finding players to fit his scheme.  Of everything about the Cyclones, his influence on the offense now and in the future excites me the most.

What worries me the most about the future is the continued stagnation of the defense.  Once again, two of our best defensive players (Knott, 3rd in tackles and Brackens, 8th in tackles) as of the middle of the season, weren't in the starting lineup the first game of the season.  The personnel decisions on that side of the ball have been suspect for the last couple years.  ISU needs to win their early games to go to a bowl game, and to win those games, they need to play their best players from the very first snap.

Jared Brackens is getting a bad rap for allowing the long pass late that gave the Longhorns the go ahead touchdown.  I think he did the best he could, but was put in a bad spot.  Brackens, a linebacker, shouldn't have had to cover Jaxon Shipley a senior wide receiver, without help over the top.  If the two corners were covering the outside receivers, one of the two safeties should have been available to cover the slot.  At the least, they should have had the safeties in a two-deep zone available to help the man coverage underneath.  Especially considering Texas needed about 30 yards in 28 seconds for a long field goal attempt.  The coaching on the defensive side of the ball needs to improve.

Updating a previous 'feature', I've got ISU projected for just over 4 total wins for the year.  I guess that'd be an improvement on last year.

New Feature!!! - I'd always wanted some way to measure ISU's football team against all others.  Similar to a kenpom for college football.  The closest thing is the former BCS standings, which were calculated for any team that was in the top 25 of either poll or the computer rankings.  The BCS is over, but the site bcsguru.com still maintains the rankings, albeit with a slightly different formula.

ISU is not on the bcsguru list.  And rarely found itself on the BCS final standings.  So the best I can do is use the six computer rankings, which are available for every D-I team.  I'll use the same method the BCS used, throwing out the top and bottom rankings and averaging the remaining 4.  Using this method, ISU's current ranking is 80th, out of 128 FBS/Div I-A schools.  I wish I had context for that ranking but I don't.  Maybe my next project will be to calculate their year-end ranking as far back as I can.

ISU Football Projections 2014

Well, tough day for ISU.  I wanted to say "good guys" but there weren't many of those today.  This year, like the last couple, I used the historical winning percentages to project a number of wins for the football team.  Last year, I projected ~6 wins and the team finished with 3, and I had to look up the record.  The reasons for the disappointment are pretty obvious and I'll get into them below.  Here are my pre-season wins predictions.

I projected, based on probabilities, 5.817 wins.  Not enough for a bowl game, down from last year's 6.08 and 2012's 6.42.  This year's total was assuming they were favored in four games, one of which was the opener against NDSU.  Now the adjusted total is 5 wins, but that's based on them being favored in 3 more games (I'd guess maybe one now).  What happened?

For starters, Paul Rhoads' teams quit beating teams they were favored against.  Through four years, that was a hallmark of Rhoads teams, winning at a 77% clip.  ISU was 9-0 at home and favored.  And they upset teams at a reasonable pace, 36% again through the first 4 years.  Last year, ISU lost against UNI at home, favored.  And only won 2 of 9 games they were 'dogs in, 22%.

That's where we're starting this year.  A loss in which ISU was favored, at home.  In this post, I said the following:

The bad news – ISU needs to win EVERY game in which it is favored AND pick off 3 upsets a year to have a shot at a bowl game.

 It's the truth, and it's a lot to overcome just to be bowl eligible.

The Paul Rhoads tenure had been defined by winning games ISU is supposed to, and picking off a team or two each year they aren't supposed to.  The hope was as the upsets piled up, ISU would get more respect and be favored in more games.  Rhoads' teams would continue to win the favored games and still get upsets, eventually breaking through that 6 win ceiling.  Instead, they've regressed over the past year and a game.  ISU might pull off an upset or two this year (there will be plenty of opportunities) but without taking care of the teams they're supposed to, a bowl game isn't in the future.

ISU 2013 Football Season in Review

Now that the season is “officially” over, it’s time for a look back.  I’ve heard a lot of excuses – young team, injuries, etc – for the poor year.  Certainly, injuries struck early and often, especially on the offensive line.  And the two starting quarterbacks were a RS Sophomore and RS Freshman.  But many teams suffer injuries, and many freshman quarterbacks perform at a high level.  One just won this year’s Heisman. 

I’m more sympathetic to an argument that the issue was a lack of consistency.  The injuries on the offensive line resulted in 10 different starting fives over the season.  And the young quarterbacks getting substituted in and out would make it difficult for either to find a rhythm.  Unfortunately this has been a hallmark of Paul Rhoads’ tenure at ISU.  Three different starters last year, two this year.  With four total QBs in the mix next year, it might be the same again.  Other positions were handled questionably as well, including running back, where the obvious #1 took at most half the snaps this year. 

If inconsistency is the only constant at Iowa State, why would 3-9 be disappointing, instead of expected?  There’s another trait of Rhoads’ tenure, and that is the ability to compete with everyone, and pull an upset or two a season.  ISU had done very well against teams they were favored to beat (winning 76.9%).  While not a lot of games every year, this was usually good for about three wins per season.  More importantly, ISU had been known for their upsets.  Not always against the #2 team in the country, but they won 35.9% of the games in which they weren’t favored.  This averaged to 3.5 wins per year. You should see where this is going.  Coming into the season, it was reasonable to expect four games favored plus 3 upsets and ISU would be bowling.  

 Now I had ISU only favored in three games, and underdogs in the rest, which put ISU’s expected wins right about six.  Not a lot of wiggle room.  The three games in which they were favored, they really, really needed to win for bowl eligibility.  In 2013 they dropped two of those three.  ISU also had only two upsets - below their average.  So they disappointed both in games they should have won, and by not having the upsets to which we’ve grown accustomed.  If they’d played to their averages in one aspect or the other, the record would have been 4 or 5 wins.  Not bowling, but not so deflating either. 

The good news is, this should be the bottom when it comes to ISU’s performance under Paul Rhoads.  The bad news – ISU needs to win EVERY game in which it is favored AND pick off 3 upsets a year to have a shot at a bowl game.  That’s concerning, and maybe the most disappointing thing about 2013.  The upsets had been adding up, moving the lines toward ISU.  Record numbers of season tickets looked like it would fuel some Jack Magic.  A couple early wins and ISU should have been favored against Tulsa, against TCU at home and at WVU to finish the season. But since everything fell apart, the Cyclones will have to start earning respect all over again in 2014.  It doesn’t take an analysis of next year’s schedule to know that a bowl game will again be a stretch for ISU.

Thoughts from New York

I could write a novel on my experiences in the "city that never sleeps".  I will instead choose to keep it as brief as possible.  Here is my "Top Ten" from New York City.

10.   Chicago-style pizza is superior to New York-style pizza.  The best piece of pizza on the trip may have been from small shop at 10:30 in the morning.  I wish I would have visited more of those shops during the trip.  Grimaldi's Pizza is vastly overrated and I have concluded that coal-oven pizza is not my thing.
9.    Central Park is very unique.  It really is just as the movies and shows and pictures depict it.  It is quite something to have this giant park right in the middle of the city.  We went through what I thought was a lot of it, but after looking at a map appears to have been only a small fraction of it.  Would be fun to see in the summer and/or with snow on the ground.
8.  New Jersey is kind of a dump.  At least what we saw anyway.  I'm sure there are nicer parts but North Bergen and what we saw driving through Hoboken leave a little to be desired. 
7.   There are always a s*** ton of people in Times Sqaure.  I would be interested to find out what percentage of them were true New Yorkers and what percentage were tourists.  I can't see any resident in their right mind routinely passing through there unless they had work obligations.
6.  Rockefeller Center was interesting.  I would like to tour the NBC studios sometime and get to the top of a building (either Rockefeller or Empire State) the next time I go, but it wasn't first on my list this time.
5.  The World Trade Center site is going to be really incredible when finished.  Right now, it is missing information.  Soon, people that will be visiting will not have experienced or been alive when the events occurred.  They are building a museum so this should improve.
4.  The subway system was pretty incredible.  It is quite amazing how impressive the logistics of the whole operation are.  It was fun to learn how it operated and get a good feel for how millions of people commute on a daily basis.  When I go again I will stay within walking distance of a subway station and the whole trip should prove to be much easier.
3.  New York City doesn't have to be expensive.  There are plenty of people that call NYC home that live on small salaries and wages.  I quickly learned that these people probably do not buy rounds of jager bombs or eat at Dylan's Prime, but everyone deserves a learning experience.  You would not have the need or the desire probably to own a car in New York.  Public transportation actually works pretty effectively there.  There are certainly places to eat and get groceries that aren't all that different in price from here.
2.  Brooklyn and the bridge itself are pretty special.  I could live in Brooklyn.  The parts I saw anyway were much more low key yet at the same time just minutes away from the city.  The bridge offers tremendous views of Manhattan and we were lucky enough to walk across twice at dusk.  There really is no skyline that compares with that of Manhattan's.
1.  The Pinstripe Bowl, the reason the trip was made, was a pretty cool experience even with the loss by the Cyclones.  The "table-gating" beforehand with ISU fans was great and Yankee Stadium is a surprisingly good place to watch a football game.  Paul Rhoads certainly opened up some questions going into spring ball, but at the end of the day I think a lot higher of the Pinstripe Bowl than I did going in.  It was really a first-class bowl game and through a little Twitter-stalking I think the players thoroughly enjoyed themselves as well.  I probably would not make a repeat appearance next season but would consider it down the road if the Big XII tie-in was still in tact.


In conclusion, I had never really considered New York as a place I wanted to visit.  After being there, I definitely want to go back.  There is enough to do there to take up several trips.  As with Vegas, I think each time you go you get a sense of familiarity and things go a little smoother.  The next time would be a blast without the pressure of having to see everything.  I'd really like to get off the tourist track and see a little bit more of how the New Yorkers live.

Bowl Week Predictions

First and foremost I look forward to watching this ISU commercial again this week....

CPR is worth his weight in gold.  He has done more marketing for ISU through YouTube videos than they could ever purchase.  I love that this will be played after every bowl game.  Now on to this weeks games.


Current Record: 2-1


Beef O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Florida International vs Marshall

Marshall, Marshall, Marshall.  Get it?  No, they will not win this game.  I am really surprised that Cristobal is still there.  He won one game his first year on the job.  This victory tonight will give him 9 for the season.  I could see him being introduced as Pittsburgh's new coach by the end of the week.  If not there, somewhere.  This guy is legit.

Florida International 23   Marshall 16

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU vs Louisiana Tech

This game intrigues me as an ISU fan for two reasons.  Reason number one is obviously TCU joining the Big XII next season.  A future opponent of ISU's as early as next season, it will interesting to start getting to know this "cinderella".  Reason number two is to watch Louisiana Tech's offense.  Tony Franklin is their OC.  He may very well be calling the shots for ISU next season.  He worked with Rhoads for all of five games at Auburn before he was canned.  I think he is better than that experience.  He runs spread camps all over the state of Texas.  I would not object to this hire.  As for the game I think TCU has too much for Louisiana Tech in this game.

TCU 34   Louisiana Tech 23

Maaco Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs Boise State

Once again Boise State gets screwed with their bowl placement.  It is BCS or bust for them and I guess that is why they are joining the Big East.  How awesome would that be if ISU played in the Las Vegas Bowl?  Rhetorical question- It would be epic.  Arizona State is in a state of flux right now.  They canned their coach and now are stuck with a coach who lies more than Nick Saban.  This game could get out of hand if Boise State shows up motivated.

Boise State 48   Arizona State 30

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs Southern Mississippi

Without Hawaii playing in this game, no one will be there.  Usually without anything else on (aside from the Christmas Story marathon) everyone is at least watching from home.  This year a full slate of NFL games precedes the Hawaii Bowl.  I know this is on later, but it still doesn't put the spotlight on it as much as usual.  As for the game, it won't be much of one.  I hope Nevada at least gets to enjoy some beach time.  Southern Mississippi wins by two touchdowns.

Southern Mississippi  34   Nevada 20


And before we conclude these lead pipe locks let me bring you a weather update from NYC....

December 28th   High 44 deg  Low 36 deg
December 29th   High 44 deg  Low 36 deg  (SHOWERS)

On the contrary in Cedar Rapids....
December 28th  High  35 deg  Low 25 deg
December 29th  High  36 deg  Low 23 deg
 

Who said we aren't going somewhere warmer?!?!

My Sporting Event Bucket List

I got thinking the other night of all the different sporting events I would like to see.  Obviously I enjoy watching ISU athletics some events that were previously on my bucket list were crossed off or soon will be crossed off because of them.  I'll start with a few things I have done that I think are pretty special.

March Madness (In Vegas)- The two times I have done this really have been some of the best times of my life.  I vowed to make sure I returned every year, but due to this New York trip it might not be happening. 

Football Handicapping in Vegas- I have done this a couple times now and it is pretty intense.  The Venetian is the place to be and I am excited to go back.

Wrigley Field (Bleachers, Rooftop)- I enjoy the bleachers much better but the rooftop is a pretty cool experience as well.  I've been able to see two of the biggest rivalries in MLB (Cubs vs Cardinals and Cubs vs White Sox) at Wrigley Field.

Visiting 10 Different MLB parks- Some of them still exist, some of them don't.  This topic will appear later on my list.  Coolest stadium?  San Francisco.

See a Game in Lambeau Field- It is quite an atmosphere there.  By no means am I a Packers fan, but the experience was pretty cool.

Visit Yankee Stadium- Coming soon.  Although it will be for a football game I think the opportunity will be pretty special.


The List....

Visit Every MLB Park-  I think the more realistic scenario is to see all 30 MLB teams play a home game.  Baseball stadiums and the different layouts fascinate me.  Would really enjoy seeing Fenway Park before its too late.

Go to a SEC Football Game- It is just a different ball of wax down there.  I think it would be quite the experience to be present at one of these games.

Attend the Red River Rivalry- In connection with the Texas State Fair I think this would be a hoot.  Fried food, rivalry, good football, warm weather.

Attend a Game in Madison Square Garden- I was hoping the Knicks were playing at home during our trip so I could cross this one off.  It is supposed to be the mecca of basketball, so I think it would be worth seeing.

Attend either a NLCS clinching or World Series clinching Cubs victory in Wrigley Field- Might not ever happen but I would have to pull out all the stops if the opportunity arose.

Be in Attendance for Every Cyclone Football Game (1 season)- It would be fun to see an entire season unfold in person.  It would be pretty possible in my opinion during a year in which ISU has seven home games and plays Iowa in Iowa City.  That would leave two trips to Texas, a trip to Oklahoma and a trip to Kansas.

See a Bears Victory in Soldier Field- Seems pretty small but I have never seen my favorite professional football team play a home game.  I'm a Bears fan and I have been to Lambeau and not Soldier Field.  What's up with that?

Spend Super Bowl Sunday in Vegas- Prop bets, prop bets, prop bets!


I'm sure I left a few off the list.  What is on yours?

New York, New York

I will be the first to admit New York City was not my first choice for an Iowa State bowl destination.  However, after deciding to make the trip I have done some more research on NYC and am getting more and more excited.  I think it truly will be a great trip for the players, coaches and fans.  Warm weather is nice in December, but this truly is a once in a lifetime opportunity for everyone involved.  Here are ten reasons I am looking forward to this trip.

10.  The Cyclones have now taken me to Houston's Reliant Stadium, Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium (3 times), Las Vegas, Tempe, Columbia (MO) and now New York City.  I love seeing different stadiums and cities.  I really enjoy seeing different baseball stadiums.  My #10 reason I am excited for the New Era Pinstripe Bowl is the chance to see the new Yankee Stadium.

9.  I've been fortunate to visit a lot of different places around the country.  My only experience out east was Washington D.C. when I was younger.  I have never really been tremendously interested in visiting New York in the past.  JMeeks wanted to go out there a couple summers ago and I didn't really understand why.  The east coast is truly a different experience.  Reason #9 is this trip presents the opportunity to go to the east coast and experience New York City.

8.  New Year's Eve in New York City.  This is supposed to be the place to be on NYE right?  I've spent NYE in Houston and Tempe why not New York City.

7.  Statue of Liberty.  I've seen it on television and in books.  This is a chance to see it in person.  I just hope it looks like this...

6.  Central Park.  I was a big fan of the Home Alone movies.  I had the Home Alone game for my GameBoy and on the Super Nintendo.  I want to see what this Central Park is all about and throw bird see all over JMeeks and watch him scream.

5.  TMNT.  I want to see the land of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.  I love those dudes.  The movies were great.  Cowabunga!!!

4.  Times Square.  No, I don't plan on standing outside for hours upon hours without beverages and without restrooms to see a ball drop.  Would it be cool to say you have done it?  Yes, absolutely.  Is it worth it on your first trip to NYC?  Absolutely not.  However, I do look forward to seeing what this Times Square is all about.

3.  Ground Zero.  One of the biggest moments of United States history, one that happened when I was a freshman in high school happened in NYC.  I still and always will remember sitting in the wrestling room during physical education class.  At that time I really didn't know the significance of the World Trade Centers nor did I know at that time how big of a travesty this truly was.  Football practice was cancelled after school and when I got home seemingly every channel had constant coverage.  I knew this was big.  I look forward to seeing this area and the tribute to the victims and the hero's of 9/11.

2.  New York Style Pizza.  I love pizza.  I really freaking love pizza.  I have had New York style pizza but I haven't had pizza from New York.  I'm getting hungry thinking about it.  As a kid I had a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle toy that shot out pizzas.

This really could have been #1....

1.  Cyclone Football.  At the end of the day I really look forward to seeing these boys play again.  This has really been a special season to be an ISU fan.  The team was favored in TWO games and won SIX.  A season that just about started with a loss to UNI ended with a trip to NYC.  It is a season I will never forget.  A season that included two of the most memorable games I've ever been to.  It would be a shame to not take advantage of the biggest win in school history.  Paul Rhoads is putting out a product on the field that is fun to watch and I simply can't wait until the 30th.  Getting a chance to tailgate at different establishments in Manhattan and the Bronx will truly be something different and special.  I really truly hope Rutgers packs the house.  It will be hard for ISU to bring a ton of fans but both teams deserve a great atmosphere whether that be hostile or supportive.  I think it will be a fun game to watch and the chance to win a 2nd bowl game in three years is pretty unbelievable considering where this program was at just three years ago.  Here is a clip from Paul Rhoads last night to get you fired up....

And this post wouldn't be complete without a few music video's....

And...

Let's GO CYCLONES!!!!!

ISU Bowl Possibilities

Disclaimer:  Any complaint or downfall of any of these bowls is obviously exponentially better than the flip-side (not being in a bowl).  You cannot overestimate how crucial this opportunity is for this team.  Here is a bit from Paul Rhoads at his weekly presser.

"Rhoads noticed a big difference between spring practice this year and the previous year because of the lack of bowl practices."

The extra month of practice along with another nationally televised game will help this program move even further along.  Depending on the opponent and the type of game that is played, who knows, maybe CPR will make another YouTube appearance.  WIN the bowl game and the Cyclones are sitting at least at .500 over Rhoads' first three years.  Did I mention the extra practice this extremely young team will get?

Possibilities (In order of best for ISU to at least we are in a bowl)  Note: The Insight Bowl is not in these projections.  Unless ISU beats KSU Saturday this really isn't a possibility.

 1.  Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)
     December 28th     
     8pm CST  
     ESPN  
     Against: Pac-12

This would be probably the best bowl ISU has ever been in.  It is a destination that a whole slew of Cyclones would travel to.  It is also the ONLY bowl game on at the time.  Around the holidays a lot of people will be watching this game.  I know it is always one of my favorites to watch.  A lot of people get caught up in the payouts.  Payouts really don't matter when it comes to bowl games.  The conference will split the net-payouts.  This bowl would give the Cyclones and this program the most exposure.  A chance to beat a decent Pac-12 would be a great step for this program. 

Probability: 15%

2.   Texas Bowl (Houston, TX)
December 31st
12 pm CST
ESPN
Against: Big Ten

 Yes this is just one step down in the pecking order.  It would be an excellent destination for the Cyclones.  The fact that the game is in Texas, a prime recruiting ground for ISU, is great.  Warmer weather, also great.  A decent Big Ten opponent, splendid.  A 12 pm time slot on New Year's Eve?  Not ideal.  Figure in that there is a full slate of bowl games on that day and this game could get lost in the shuffle.  It helps NYE is a Saturday.  However, from an exposure standpoint it is not as good of an opportunity for ISU.

Probability: < 5%  The Texas Bowl will not pass on a chance to get Baylor, Texas, or Texas Tech.
3.  Ticket City Bowl (Dallas, TX)
January 2nd
12 pm CST
ESPNU
Against: Big Ten

I know, I know this is not a Big XII bowl game.  However, is this better than the Pinstripe Bowl?  Absolutely.  Let me explain.  Yay! January bowl game!  The Ticket City Bowl doesn't quite have the name some others might but January 2nd this year is as good as January 1st most years.  There are zero, cero, nada, zilch, none, bowl games on New Year's Day.  It is of course a NFL Sunday.  That makes January 2nd the day in college football.  This bowl kicks it off.  Here are the other bowl games that day: Outback, Capital One, Gator, Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl.  Think people will be watching those?  Think people will see highlights of the Ticket City Bowl during that game?  Rhetorical questions.  Downfall?  Its on ESPNU.  Unless you fell for the Digital Plus package just to get NFL RedZone like I did you probably don't get ESPNU.  Additional bonus:  Getting to play in the Cotton Bowl.

Probability: 40 %  The "Experts" would disagree with this percentage.  However, the experts don't know anymore than I do.  I really find it hard to believe ISU gets passed up by all of the Big XII bowls.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
December 30th
3:20 pm
ESPN
Against: Big East

The only real benefit to this bowl is that it is a Big XII bowl.  The Cyclones would be better off against a Big Ten opponent.  They would be better off with fans in the stands.  They would be better off in an area they can recruit.  They would be better off not in this bowl.  This is the bowl I projected ISU would land in at the beginning of the year in my fearless predictions.  I really feel as though ISU might end up here unfortunately.  I really hope I am wrong.  Here is a little tidbit that makes me think if ISU falls to the Pinstripe Bowl they will take them.  There were ZERO bowl reps at Missouri's last home game against Texas Tech.  ZERO!!!! Something makes me think Missouri will get their usual treatment and won't get a Big XII Bowl.  Unfortunately for ISU if that is the case and they don't end up in a better situation the Cyclones could be headed to NYC.  Reminds me way to much of going to Boise.

Probability: 40%

Any Other Non-Big XII Bowl

There are numerous possibilities out there.  Military Bowl, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Beef O'Brady's Bowl and even the possibility of the Hawaii Bowl.  These would be better than the alternative, staying at home, yet not as good as some of the other possibilities.  However, I would place the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl above the Pinstripe.  ISU actually does recruit California.  NYC, not so much.

Probability: < 5%




My dream scenario:  Las Vegas Bowl

My realistic dream scenario: Holiday Bowl

My economically efficient scenario: Ticket City Bowl/ Texas Bowl

Top 5 Most Disappointing Moments as a Fan

Today got me reflecting on this, mainly because I have not had many positive moments as a fan.

5.  2004-2005 ISU Football:  ISU failed to qualify for the Big XII Championship Game two years in a row because of missed fields and interceptions in the end zone.  The first time hurt, the second time was brutal.
4.  2011 Bears Football:  The Chicago Bears had a home game against their arch rival Green Bay Packers for a trip to the Super Bowl.  Needless to say their starting quarterback sucked, got hurt and a rally by their third stringer Caleb Hanie came up 20 yards short.  Nothing is worse than losing to the Packers.
3. 2001 Cyclone Basketball:  ISU inexplicably lost as a #2 seed to #15 seed Hampton in the NCAA tournament.  The television in my bedroom took a beating after this one.
2. 2000 Cyclone Basketball:  One victory away from the Final Four, Iowa State got hosed in a game that was as close to a home game that one can get in the NCAA tournament.  It was basically the title game in seeding that has since been corrected by the NCAA.
1. 2003 Cubs Baseball:  You all know where this is going so I don't feel the need to explain.  The worst part was it taking a week and a half of my life to happen.

Honorable Mention:
2007-2008 Cubs:  Two playoff appearances, zero wins
2002 Iowa State Football: Iowa State got up to #9 in the country with a 6-1 record including a near victory at Arrowhead Stadium against #2 Florida State the very first game of the year.  I still swear Seneca was in.  Anyway, the Cyclones finished at 7-7 after a loss to Boise State in the Humanitarian Bowl.
2006 Chicago Bears: Losing in the Super Bowl was the closest I have come to seeing one of my teams winning the "big one".

NFL Conference Championships

First off, I want to put a disclaimer on this by saying that I realize my picks are subject to a bias (Go Bears).  I think tomorrow could be a wonderful day of good, competitive football.  Lets hope it is and lets hope I can be writing updates on the Bears for the next few weeks.

Game One
Green Bay (-3.5) @ Chicago
I initially thought the Bears would open as a one point favorite.  I was in awe when Green Bay opened up at -3.5.  Everything I have read supports the fact that this spread is based on the public jumping on a hot Green Bay team.  This spread in all honesty should be closer to a pick 'em.  I'm going to say that not only the Bears cover, but they also win the game straight up.  Chicago 19 Green Bay 17 which means this game will also cover the under at less than 43.5.

Game Two
NYJ (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh
I hope I still have a rooting interest in this game by the time it rolls around.  If that does happen I will be rooting for NYJ.  If I don't, Pittsburgh.  I think Pittsburgh wins this game, but I think the Jets cover.  The sharps have been taking New York and even on the moneyline.  Lets go with a final score of Pittsburgh 17 New York 16.  This means I am taking another under as well with a score of under 38.5.

In 24 years of life, not a single one of my teams in any sport has won their ultimate championship.  The closest class have been the Bears losing to the Colts in the Super Bowl, The Cubs being five outs away from the World Series and the Cyclones losing to Michigan State in what was basically the NCAA title game that occurred a couple steps from MSU"s campus in the Elite 8.  With that being said I would have to rank my ultimate rooting interests in this order...

1a)Iowa State Football BCS National Championship
1b)Iowa State Basketball National Championship
1c)Chicago Cubs World Series Championship
2) Chicago Bears Super Bowl Title
3) Iowa Hawkeye Football "0-12" Season