Coronavirus
April 2, 2020
The impact of this coronavirus, COVID-19, can’t be understated. The health impact has been great and economic impact profound. As I write this, over 1 million people worldwide have tested positive for COVID-19 and 244,000 in the US alone. 53,000 deaths in the world and 6,000 in the states. It’s not a hoax or a joke, and perhaps the larger impact is the degree of hospitalization required for those fighting the virus. Because this has been a worldwide event, supplies of both basic protective and lifesaving equipment have been in short supply. I have no reason to doubt the governors and nurses and doctors who say they do not have the materials they need. This is not the most contagious virus, or most deadly, but it’s still overwhelming our capacity for treatment.
We have entered an unlikely, unprecedented period of self-isolation. Previous examples might include London during WWII, or Houston before and immediately after Hurricane Harvey. But this is so widespread. Almost everyone in the world, except the most remote, will be under a stay-at-home order at some point. And this has all happened within the last month or so. It is another month or two (May or June 2020) before experts think we can start to go back to normal.
The result of isolation has, not surprisingly, caused massive upheaval in the marketplace. Obviously, this is a secondary concern to the very real health risks of the virus, but when money quits moving and people start losing jobs, an economic crisis quickly leads to a health crisis. Access to safe shelter, food and medical care is paramount to keeping people healthy. This is the argument that some have made to support a return to normal. It could be the subject of a cost/benefit study, if our medical facilities and staff weren’t already reporting being overrun. We do not currently have the capability to safely treat those who are sick with this new coronavirus in addition to those afflicted with other conditions.
So we’ve ‘locked down’ most of the country. Similar orders have kept people inside all over the world. An economic standstill of this magnitude has occurred only a couple times in modern history. It’s not hard to see why we’re here now. I think of ‘the economy’ as how fast money changes hands. In a good economy, it’s spinning all over the world at rapid speed. A slump in any industry impacts the whole economy because money quits moving amongst those affected. This pandemic has effectively stopped the flow through restaurants, movie theaters, retail, other small businesses, and more. When businesses don’t make revenue, they can’t pay rent to their landlords, who can’t pay the banks, who report decreased earnings and increased foreclosures and stock price goes down. But more importantly is those who work at these establishments. These are the people that put almost every dollar of their income back into the economy through groceries, rent, entertainment, etc.. When these people lose their income, the local economy takes a massive hit and quickly drags on the national economy.
What we’ve found, and what is still the case, is that the United States Government is the greatest economic force in history. Even with massive spending and enormous debts, institutions worldwide believe in the US Dollar and Treasury Bonds as safe haven. This should be both exploited and protected. The US has the ability to float unfathomable amounts of money to those affected by this virus. And to it’s credit, it has already started to do so. With appropriate oversight, much of this can be recouped via very low interest loans, with only some of it described as a handout. The government’s role in this is to keep money changing hands. We help restaurateurs, they keep paying their staff, who keeps paying their rent and buying groceries. This all keeps money changing hands, and the economy in general.
The government direct payment of $1200 is more correctly titled relief rather than stimulus. The jobs have gone away, while the rent and groceries stay the same. There’s nowhere to spend the money if people wanted. Correctly learning from the 2008 bailout, government money is tied to the continued employment of those impacted. The slow trickle of an economy we’re experiencing in these times is predicated on people being able to access the basic necessities. The eventual recovery is dependent on regular people being employed and spending money locally and also over the internet. An economic stimulus would have to happen after everything has opened back up. Calling anything a ‘stimulus’ right now would be incorrect as many businesses are shuttered.
This discussion has been focused on the economic impacts of the global pandemic happening now. It’s important to continue to follow advice given at a local and national level. The spread of this coronavirus has been slowed by these measures, the spread of seasonal flu has been slowed by our actions. After shutting down a large part of this country, the only reasonable resolution is to continue doing what is working and slowing or otherwise mitigating the virus spread.
Thursday, April 2, 2020
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
Cubs Spring Training Storylines Part 1
How will the Cubs work Schwarber into the mix at catcher?
It's important for the Cubs to continue working Schwarber behind the plate. It won't be his everyday spot going forward I don't believe and I'm also not sure they want him catching 120 games a year either. However his bat at the catcher spot is hard to find. If they can continue to work with him back there so he has the ability to be a part-time serviceable catcher it could pay dividends for years to come. I envision Schwarber getting 20-30 starts behind the plate this year. Let's face it, he isn't that good of a LF and the more starts he gets behind the plate the more starts Soler can get in the OF. It is important with all of the flexibility on this Cubs roster that they don't have one or two players with the inability to move around the diamond outside of Rizzo. Here are some other outside the box ways of getting Schwarber some C time.
-Personal catcher for Hendricks/5th starter
-Late inning substitution in blowouts
-Starts w/Ross or Montero as late inning def replacement
Finally, without knowing if Contreras is ready to play big league ball Schwarber needs the experience in case of injury to Montero.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Big 12/SEC Challenge
As we reach the end of January and the heart of the conference slate the Big 12 and SEC are gearing up for an inter conference showdown. The coaches hate this challenge being in the middle of the conference season and I don't blame them. As a college basketball fan I think it's great. This challenge wouldn't have had nearly the buzz on a Tuesday night in early December before Simmons and Hield proved themselves to be the best two players in college basketball. It would be fun if more conferences did this on the same weekend. They could even do it the weekend of the Super Bowl and cal it Super Madness? They may not want to compete with the NFL so maybe Pro Bowl weekend is best. Anyway, I'll attempt to preview the ten games and make an accurate prediction.
One thing to keep in mind with this challenge is it includes all Big 12 teams and excludes the bottom four SEC teams.
West Virginia at Florida (-1.5)
The loss of Holton hurts for West Virginia. Florida is starting to play better as of late and is at home in this one. My hope is West Virginia is able to find enough offense to scrape out a win on the road and keep their Top 10 status for Tuesday's showdown in Hilton.
I think Press Virginia causes enough havoc and edges out a 2.5 hour win 71-66.
Vanderbilt at Texas (-1)
Vanderbilt is a good team. Texas is starting to find its way on both sides of the ball. Texas has about as many quality wins as anyone in the country. I think Shaka gets them another one today in a faster paced game.
Texas 81 Vanderbilt 76
Ole Miss at Kansas State (-7)
I admittedly don't know much about Ole Miss outside of Stefan Moody and that they are no long we appointment television like they used to be with Marshall Henderson. Kansas State as a seven point favorite is enough to convince me the young Wildcats will pull it out.
Kansas State 67 Ole Miss 60
Iowa State at Texas A&M (-4.5)
This turned out to be a much bigger opponent than we all originally thought before the season started. It still would have been really fun to see Kentucky come in to Hilton with the roster ISU currently has.
TAMU is good, very good. They are favored for a reason but the homer in me sees the Cyclones pulling this out. It will be interesting to see how much and how well Jameel McKay plays in this one. The Aggies have a talented freshman center. If Niang gets matched up on him though in a small ball game I think he can take his lunch.
I look for the Cyclones to mix up some more zone in this game and see how the Aggies respond. I think this one goes similar to Oklahoma game in Norman but this time the Cyclones slow it down enough and control the game toward the end to pull out a win.
Iowa State 79 Texas A&M 71
Texas Tech at Arkansas (-5.5)
Texas Tech is better than people think. Tubby has them trending in the right direction and Zach Smith is an athletic freak. However I think Arkansas backs up their big win Wednesday with a home win over Texas Tech.
Arkansas 81 Texas Tech 67
Oklahoma at LSU (+4.5)
This matchup turned out like gold for ESPN. The best two players in college basketball matchup in this one. LSU is much better now that they are healthy. Simmons will get his, as will Hield but I have a hard time believing that Jones can out scheme Krueger. It will be a fun one. OU hits 13 3's and maintains their #1 ranking.
Oklahoma 85 LSU 76
Georgia at Baylor (-11.5)
Georgia isn't very good. Baylor is. This one gets ugly and doesn't need any more analysis.
Baylor 79 Georgia 61
Tennessee at TCU (+1.5)
I wish Tennessee was going back to Texas. Maybe next year. TCU misses Kyan Anderson big time. They just aren't very good this year. I think Rick Barnes notches a win at TCU. Something his former school couldn't do.
Tennessee 65 TCU 60
Kentucky at Kansas (-5.5)
What a dynamite matchup this was preseason. Is this another year where Kentucky falls out of the Top 10 only to gain steam and wind up in the Final Four? Kansas has some issues right now. Will Self continue to hold his diaper dandies hostage on the bench or turn them loose in order to reap the rewards in March? It might be in KU's best interest to feed them to the wolves and risk ending their conference championship steak. I don't think Self will though. It's tough to bet against KU at the Phog but I think this ends up as the most exciting game of the challenge.
Kansas 74 Kentucky 72
Oklahoma State at Auburn (+1.5)
Remember the first Big12/SEC Challenge when ISU ran all over Auburn? That was pre Bruce Pearl. Auburn isn't there yet but they are going to be soon. Juwan Evans vs Kareem Canty will be a matchup to watch in this one. I think Bruce Pearl and Auburn sweat out a win in this one at home.
Auburn 80 Okie State 75
Final Tally
Big 12 6 SEC 4
Saturday, January 16, 2016
Fixing the Cyclones
There is an old saying the goes something like "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". While this may have been Steve Prohm's strategy coming into this year with extremely high expectations, he may have to rethink this strategy. Let me be clear, this team isn't "broke" but they certainly aren't performing at maximum efficiency. After losing 3 out of 4 fans have become restless and "experts" (and I use that term loosely) have begun to dig through this team with a fine tooth comb. Things are never as bad as they seem (or good for that matter), but the Cyclones have some things they need to figure out before getting back to their winning ways.
Adjusting Expectations
Expectations are a funny thing. The higher they are as a fan, the more miserable you generally become. The higher the expectations, the less room there is to outperform them. As a Cubs fan, last season was incredibly enjoyable. The Cubs weren't supposed to be a playoff team yet. They outperformed their expectations and it made it a blast to watch. This year, the expectations will be much higher. Losses will hurt more and wins won't feel as good because they are supposed to win. This year, the fans that follow ISU basketball have fallen victim to their own expectations. During the summer the fan base was buzzing with Big 12 championship and Final Four talk. It only gained more steam in a snowball effect as experts came out with their projected Final Four participants and preseason Top 10 lists. ISU climbed all the way up to #2 in the polls and even earned a couple first place votes while compiling wins in the non-conference that weren't convincing enough for the fan base. So, after 3 losses in 4 games have fans adjusted their expectations? Yes, they have. Some are calling this team a bubble team and would be surprised to see them make the tournament. What?! Look the 'Clones are probably out of the Big 12 regular season championship talk. That could be a blessing in disguise. Lets look at some realistic expectations going forward.
The NCAA tournament is a complete crap shoot. The very nature of this caused havoc on Cyclone Nation last March and could cause euphoria this March. Its just the way it is. I think its tough to put expectations on a team that say they should advance to a certain round in the NCAA tournament. For me, I think you can gauge a lot about a season based on the seed they earn in the big dance. Can we reset the goals on the year? Sure, I am going to (for myself anyway). How about a Top 4 finish in the Big 12? I've wanted nothing more than for the Cyclones to dethrone the Jayhawks over this fun four-five year run. They are behind the 8-ball this year. Maybe this leads to less heartache later in the year? How about a "protected" Top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. The last two years they have been a 3 seed. Granted they have run the table in the Big 12 tournament but this team is still certainly capable of earning a 4 seed in the Big Dance. There are still 14 conference games and a non-conference tilt against Texas A&M left on the schedule. You can look at that as daunting or opportunity. Let's not beat around the bush, this group plays big when the lights are the brightest. Get in the tournament with a somewhat favorable draw and let the cards play themselves out.
Depth
I've never been a big "depth" guy in college basketball. With egos as big as they are, I think it can create more problems than it can solve. That is why I wasn't terribly concerned with the lack of depth coming into the year barring injury. Well, injury happened and it happened to a key cog in the offense and defense. When it comes to an 18 game conference season it has and will rear its ugly head a couple of times. I think it has become a factor with the defense and with some shooting woes (namely Monte Morris). It has made the margin for error thin and those small errors have shown up the last few games. They won't every game, that is my point. This group can score with the best of them and there will be nights when depth, defense and coaching won't come into play. With as bad as the defense and depth have been we are still talking about a couple bounces from 15-1. Hopefully Burton and Cooke start to find their way. Last year there were a couple of games that they don't win without Abdel Nader off the bench. Burton just about provided that spark at Oklahoma. Hopefully he can help close the deal a couple of times over the rest of the season.
Defense
Oh boy. It has been bad recently. Like, Sandlot 2 bad. We knew going into the season it wouldn't be great and it doesn't have to be great. It just has to be average. There are some bad defenders in the bunch, namely Georges Niang. We were convinced Prohm would put his defensive fingerprint on this group. The problem is that he has never been a defensive guru. Under Hoiberg, the plan was to funnel everything to long two point shots. If they get to the rim, they would be meeting Jameel McKay for a block party. Prohm has McKay denying out on the wings and guarding athletics big men away from the basket. This is not his forte. McKay won his Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award by getting blocks in help defense. I think they need to get back to this in a way. I wouldn't mind seeing a few possessions of zone defense or some other form of junk defense. If they can create enough confusion a couple possessions a game for the opponent to "waste" a trip down the floor that might be just enough for the Cyclones to be able to outscore opponents. Last, dating back to the Chris Babb era ISU would try to eliminate one player a game from the other team by shadowing him for the entire game and not helping off him. Part of the reason ISU has given up so many three pointers this season is their rotations are late and they are left scrambling. Maybe if they aren't helping off one person they end up giving up a two instead of a three or they take a team out of their rhythm by taking away a first, second or third option. Once again, I think there is a solution or maybe even a band-aid good enough to help this team get to where it wants to be. This will never be an elite defensive team, but they don't have to be. Currently, the only thing they are taking away are opponent free throws. I'm asking to just take away one more thing, whatever that might be.
Offense
I agree with some that say the offense hasn't looked as potent as it has in the past, but I think a majority of that comes the fact they aren't shooting as well (or as often) from three point range. I also don't think they are running the break as well as they have in past years. At the end of the day they still have one of the most potent offenses in the country. I think there will be some regression to the mean when it comes to shooting percentages (in a good way) for the likes of Monte Morris and Jameel McKay. At the end of the day they need to feed the ball to Georges Niang and let the offense initiate through him and Morris. Possessions that end up with a Nader fade away or a McKay isolation are wasted possessions in my book. If they can get Niang 20 shots a game I will be pleased going forward. Iowa State has struggled so far to get to the free throw line. Part of that might be their ability to keep opponents off the line. Referees are human and have an innate tendency to even out the fouls no matter the situation. One guy that could help get into the bonus is Abdel Nader. If he could attack the rim under control he would be a foul drawing machine.
Coaching
I feel for Coach Prohm. I truly do. He has the toughest job in college basketball this season. I think Prohm has handled himself really well this season, but his hands are a bit tied. There is still that "step-dad" feel and he has done everything in his power to make sure the players get the credit and he takes the blame. It is time for the players to buy in if they want to get where they want to get. My biggest pet peeve from the Prohm era is his tendency to call timeouts when his team is about to make a run and his tendency to call time outs too late into an opponents run.
Going Forward
I think the Cyclones can right the ship and start playing well again. They will lose more games, they will win more games. Getting back to .500 in conference is their first priority and it won't be an easy task. I can see the Cyclones going 10-8 in conference play and finishing with 21 or 22 wins. Their seed will depend on their success in the Big 12 tournament however, whatever it may I don't think many teams will be happy to see them in their bracket.
I hope my optimism is proven true over the next two months. Enjoy the ride Cyclone fans.
**1:20 PM edit
Hallice Cooke has been suspended for today's game leaving them with 6 players in the rotation. Does Jordan Ashton get a look? One can only hope he is able to come in and knock down some shots.
Adjusting Expectations
Expectations are a funny thing. The higher they are as a fan, the more miserable you generally become. The higher the expectations, the less room there is to outperform them. As a Cubs fan, last season was incredibly enjoyable. The Cubs weren't supposed to be a playoff team yet. They outperformed their expectations and it made it a blast to watch. This year, the expectations will be much higher. Losses will hurt more and wins won't feel as good because they are supposed to win. This year, the fans that follow ISU basketball have fallen victim to their own expectations. During the summer the fan base was buzzing with Big 12 championship and Final Four talk. It only gained more steam in a snowball effect as experts came out with their projected Final Four participants and preseason Top 10 lists. ISU climbed all the way up to #2 in the polls and even earned a couple first place votes while compiling wins in the non-conference that weren't convincing enough for the fan base. So, after 3 losses in 4 games have fans adjusted their expectations? Yes, they have. Some are calling this team a bubble team and would be surprised to see them make the tournament. What?! Look the 'Clones are probably out of the Big 12 regular season championship talk. That could be a blessing in disguise. Lets look at some realistic expectations going forward.
The NCAA tournament is a complete crap shoot. The very nature of this caused havoc on Cyclone Nation last March and could cause euphoria this March. Its just the way it is. I think its tough to put expectations on a team that say they should advance to a certain round in the NCAA tournament. For me, I think you can gauge a lot about a season based on the seed they earn in the big dance. Can we reset the goals on the year? Sure, I am going to (for myself anyway). How about a Top 4 finish in the Big 12? I've wanted nothing more than for the Cyclones to dethrone the Jayhawks over this fun four-five year run. They are behind the 8-ball this year. Maybe this leads to less heartache later in the year? How about a "protected" Top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. The last two years they have been a 3 seed. Granted they have run the table in the Big 12 tournament but this team is still certainly capable of earning a 4 seed in the Big Dance. There are still 14 conference games and a non-conference tilt against Texas A&M left on the schedule. You can look at that as daunting or opportunity. Let's not beat around the bush, this group plays big when the lights are the brightest. Get in the tournament with a somewhat favorable draw and let the cards play themselves out.
Depth
I've never been a big "depth" guy in college basketball. With egos as big as they are, I think it can create more problems than it can solve. That is why I wasn't terribly concerned with the lack of depth coming into the year barring injury. Well, injury happened and it happened to a key cog in the offense and defense. When it comes to an 18 game conference season it has and will rear its ugly head a couple of times. I think it has become a factor with the defense and with some shooting woes (namely Monte Morris). It has made the margin for error thin and those small errors have shown up the last few games. They won't every game, that is my point. This group can score with the best of them and there will be nights when depth, defense and coaching won't come into play. With as bad as the defense and depth have been we are still talking about a couple bounces from 15-1. Hopefully Burton and Cooke start to find their way. Last year there were a couple of games that they don't win without Abdel Nader off the bench. Burton just about provided that spark at Oklahoma. Hopefully he can help close the deal a couple of times over the rest of the season.
Defense
Oh boy. It has been bad recently. Like, Sandlot 2 bad. We knew going into the season it wouldn't be great and it doesn't have to be great. It just has to be average. There are some bad defenders in the bunch, namely Georges Niang. We were convinced Prohm would put his defensive fingerprint on this group. The problem is that he has never been a defensive guru. Under Hoiberg, the plan was to funnel everything to long two point shots. If they get to the rim, they would be meeting Jameel McKay for a block party. Prohm has McKay denying out on the wings and guarding athletics big men away from the basket. This is not his forte. McKay won his Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year award by getting blocks in help defense. I think they need to get back to this in a way. I wouldn't mind seeing a few possessions of zone defense or some other form of junk defense. If they can create enough confusion a couple possessions a game for the opponent to "waste" a trip down the floor that might be just enough for the Cyclones to be able to outscore opponents. Last, dating back to the Chris Babb era ISU would try to eliminate one player a game from the other team by shadowing him for the entire game and not helping off him. Part of the reason ISU has given up so many three pointers this season is their rotations are late and they are left scrambling. Maybe if they aren't helping off one person they end up giving up a two instead of a three or they take a team out of their rhythm by taking away a first, second or third option. Once again, I think there is a solution or maybe even a band-aid good enough to help this team get to where it wants to be. This will never be an elite defensive team, but they don't have to be. Currently, the only thing they are taking away are opponent free throws. I'm asking to just take away one more thing, whatever that might be.
Offense
I agree with some that say the offense hasn't looked as potent as it has in the past, but I think a majority of that comes the fact they aren't shooting as well (or as often) from three point range. I also don't think they are running the break as well as they have in past years. At the end of the day they still have one of the most potent offenses in the country. I think there will be some regression to the mean when it comes to shooting percentages (in a good way) for the likes of Monte Morris and Jameel McKay. At the end of the day they need to feed the ball to Georges Niang and let the offense initiate through him and Morris. Possessions that end up with a Nader fade away or a McKay isolation are wasted possessions in my book. If they can get Niang 20 shots a game I will be pleased going forward. Iowa State has struggled so far to get to the free throw line. Part of that might be their ability to keep opponents off the line. Referees are human and have an innate tendency to even out the fouls no matter the situation. One guy that could help get into the bonus is Abdel Nader. If he could attack the rim under control he would be a foul drawing machine.
Coaching
I feel for Coach Prohm. I truly do. He has the toughest job in college basketball this season. I think Prohm has handled himself really well this season, but his hands are a bit tied. There is still that "step-dad" feel and he has done everything in his power to make sure the players get the credit and he takes the blame. It is time for the players to buy in if they want to get where they want to get. My biggest pet peeve from the Prohm era is his tendency to call timeouts when his team is about to make a run and his tendency to call time outs too late into an opponents run.
Going Forward
I think the Cyclones can right the ship and start playing well again. They will lose more games, they will win more games. Getting back to .500 in conference is their first priority and it won't be an easy task. I can see the Cyclones going 10-8 in conference play and finishing with 21 or 22 wins. Their seed will depend on their success in the Big 12 tournament however, whatever it may I don't think many teams will be happy to see them in their bracket.
I hope my optimism is proven true over the next two months. Enjoy the ride Cyclone fans.
**1:20 PM edit
Hallice Cooke has been suspended for today's game leaving them with 6 players in the rotation. Does Jordan Ashton get a look? One can only hope he is able to come in and knock down some shots.
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Naz
After reading a couple things on the Naz injury, obviously it hurts for this year. Thomas is a good player and has shown increased confidence and better shooting so far, but there's a reason Naz passed him a couple years ago. Naz was always the one to get in people's faces and be the vocal leader on the floor and that definitely hurts. His ability and willingness to get to the rack so far this year has been undersold.
That said, assuming, and I don't think it's a definite, he gets to come back next year, he'll be the bridge between past successful Cyclone teams and the future. Thomas and maybe Monte would be the only other guys that've actually played more than a year for ISU on next year's team. While the fan base (and that ESPN douche) don't give ISU much of a chance next year, Naz won't let the team slack. Next year's team could really use an old voice on the court and sidelines.
Most great teams have carryover from year to year to year and teams like Kentucky have built in expectations. Without Naz and Monte next year, ISU would have neither. Actually, next year the classes are pretty balanced so any success should be carried into future seasons. I'm excited about the front court depth with Malou, Carter, Ernst and Young. (Ernst and Young is one of the "big 4" accounting firms, look for it on future Cyclone bingo cards)
So while the loss of Naz is a big blow to this year's team, it could possibly be just the thing needed to sustain ISU's success into the future.
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Ten Stats That Will Leave You Optimistic About 2015 Iowa State Football
With college football season right around the corner I figured it was time to re-establish myself on the blog. After some research I've found myself more optimistic than most when it comes to the upcoming ISU football season. Here are ten statistics that will leave you feeling the same.
1) The last coach to go 5-19 over a two year span in Ames (Gene Chizik) won a national championship just two years later. Paul Rhoads is 5-19 in his last two seasons.
2) The incoming freshman class has never lost a Big 12 game. NEVER.
3) Top 10 good? Maybe. ISU finished in the top ten in the Big 12 in EVERY statistical category last season.
4) Playoff?! We're talking about playoffs?! If they get there it's important to note that a likely opponent (Alabama) hasn't beat Iowa State since the 2001 Independence Bowl.
5) Iowa State's only winning season in the last decade was preceded by a winless Big 12 slate the year before. Last season? 0-9 in the Big 12.
6) The Cyclones have now had three 2-10 seasons in their history. In the previous two they responded with seven win seasons including a CHAMPIONSHIP in each of those seasons (2004 Independence Bowl, 2009 Insight Bowl).
7) Lucky #7. Paul Rhoads is entering his 7th season as head coach. The last coach to make it to their seventh season won seven games (Dan McCarney 7-5 in 2001).
8) Las Vegas has Iowa State's odds of winning the Big 12 at 100-1. There are only eight teams with better odds.
9) Last season ISU had a money line of +100000 to win the National Championship. This year? +40000. Remember folks, in this case the lower the number, the better the odds.
10) With the completion of the "South Endzone Project" Jack Trice will now have the third largest capacity in the Big 12 behind Texas and Oklahoma. This new "Big Three" trio of OU, UT and ISU has combined to win 10 out of the last 15 Big 12 championships. As Meatloaf says, "two out of three ain't bad"!
Cyclone fans let me caution you, #AStormIsComing
Sunday, July 26, 2015
Baylor's Hidden Advantage
Art Briles said something interesting at the Big 12 media days, this from an ESPN article:
Art was close with his Texas geography. Technically, Waco is about 100 miles east of the geographic center of Texas, but this puts it right in the middle of the "Texas Triangle" - Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin and San Antonio. Waco is only 50 miles from the population center of Texas. A good place to be if you're trying to keep Texas kids in Texas.
How many people are we talking about? We always hear about kids wanting to stay close enough for their families to see them play, which I assumed was within a three-hour drive, or about 200 miles. This also allowed Baylor to be within reach of Houston, D-FW and San Antonio, areas all well-represented on their current roster. This very cool site (http://mcdc.missouri.edu/websas/caps10c.html) allows you to search for population within a radius of any location.
More than 20.3 million people live within 200 miles of Waco. That's a lot of potential recruits. That number is higher than the University of Texas or either of the other Texas schools and roughly two to four times that of the former Big 8 schools. Only West Virginia has a greater population within 200 miles.
Briles on playing in central Texas: "Get your map. Throw a dart. Try to hit the middle. It's gon' be right around Waco."
Briles on recruiting in Texas: "If I was coaching at Ouachita Baptist in Arkansas or at San Jose State, that would be my priority also. Which it is, for everyone, every university in the nation. Texas is the most heavily recruited state. That's what makes it so invigorating as a recruiter and football program to keep kids here."
Briles on winning over the target demographic: "We're a young brand. You ask somebody [age] 10 to 30 who's the best football team in the Southwest part of the United States -- you know, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, New Mexico, the bordering states around here. They're going to say Baylor. Now 30 to 60, you might get a different answer. And 60 to 90 may be different. But those young kids, they associate with Baylor. That's something that's working for us."Both Baylor's football and basketball programs have risen to national relevancy over the past five or so years. Baylor is a small private school, with no national following and not much local support to speak of. So how did this happen? Briles' statements will lead us to some interesting answers.
Art was close with his Texas geography. Technically, Waco is about 100 miles east of the geographic center of Texas, but this puts it right in the middle of the "Texas Triangle" - Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Austin and San Antonio. Waco is only 50 miles from the population center of Texas. A good place to be if you're trying to keep Texas kids in Texas.
How many people are we talking about? We always hear about kids wanting to stay close enough for their families to see them play, which I assumed was within a three-hour drive, or about 200 miles. This also allowed Baylor to be within reach of Houston, D-FW and San Antonio, areas all well-represented on their current roster. This very cool site (http://mcdc.missouri.edu/websas/caps10c.html) allows you to search for population within a radius of any location.
More than 20.3 million people live within 200 miles of Waco. That's a lot of potential recruits. That number is higher than the University of Texas or either of the other Texas schools and roughly two to four times that of the former Big 8 schools. Only West Virginia has a greater population within 200 miles.
Also worth noting is Baylor has the highest surrounding population growth of any of the Big 12 schools. Their recruiting base is growing at a faster rate. There really are millions of kids and young adults growing up in and moving to the region for whom Texas' and Oklahoma's dominance is a fading memory. Baylor has more recently won a Big 12 championship (2), had a top 10 finish and Heisman winner than either UT or OU. For kids in high school today, it isn't "Baylor is Baylor is Baylor" anymore. Basketball is even more wide open in the state of Texas than football.
Baylor capitalized on the opportunity in a big way. The two head coaches seem to be perfect fits for the school, and are committed to signing Texas talent. The school secured donations based on the recent success to build a brand new football stadium, which will undoubtedly attract more fans, players and money.
Coda: 27 million people?!? I thought West Virginia was in the sticks?
We forget how much closer metropolitan areas are on the east coast than the rest of the nation. Morgantown is no metropolis, indeed the whole population of West Virginia is only 1.8 million. However, included within a 200 mile radius are Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Columbus, Richmond Virginia, Washington D.C, and Baltimore. This is undoubtedly what attracted the Big 12 to WVU when it came to TV revenues.
Saturday, March 7, 2015
All Big 12 teams updated through 3/6
Baylor and Tech have already played their final regular season games. Everybody else is up today, which means the All Big 12 teams will be announced tomorrow. 95% of the stats have been accumulated, the biggest question mark is final team standings, where 2nd place is up for grabs. This will likely be my last update before the official teams come out.
Buddy Hield is still at the top, but Monte has closed the gap. A surprising addition to the first team is Taurean Prince, who closed the season out very strong, scoring in double figures in his last 15 conference games. I had Mason and Anderson tied, but I'd give the nod to Mason. Two KU players on the first team is appropriate this year.
Jameel McKay made a huge leap in the rankings, benefiting from the increased minutes that come along with starting. He's now 17th in scoring, 3rd in rebounding and still 2nd in blocks. I feel very good about the other players on the second team, including Georges.
No big surprises on the 3rd team and honorable mention.
For the first time, I'll try to predict the other honors as well.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Buddy Hield
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Jameel McKay
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR
Jameel McKay
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Miles Turner
SIXTH MAN AWARD
Taurean Prince
COACH OF THE YEAR
Bill Self
Buddy Hield is still at the top, but Monte has closed the gap. A surprising addition to the first team is Taurean Prince, who closed the season out very strong, scoring in double figures in his last 15 conference games. I had Mason and Anderson tied, but I'd give the nod to Mason. Two KU players on the first team is appropriate this year.
Jameel McKay made a huge leap in the rankings, benefiting from the increased minutes that come along with starting. He's now 17th in scoring, 3rd in rebounding and still 2nd in blocks. I feel very good about the other players on the second team, including Georges.
No big surprises on the 3rd team and honorable mention.
For the first time, I'll try to predict the other honors as well.
PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Buddy Hield
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Jameel McKay
NEWCOMER OF THE YEAR
Jameel McKay
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR
Miles Turner
SIXTH MAN AWARD
Taurean Prince
COACH OF THE YEAR
Bill Self
| Big 12 All-Defensive Team |
| Jameel McKay |
| Ryan Spangler |
| TaShawn Thomas |
| Miles Turner |
| Rico Gathers |
| Buddy Hield |
| Big 12 All-Newcomer Team |
| Jameel McKay |
| TaShawn Thomas |
| Miles Turner |
| Kelly Oubre |
| Anthony Hickey |
Most of the awards were straight forward, except for coach of the year, which is hard to quantify and all-defensive POY and team. Looking at last year's team, the picks were pretty subjective. For this first try, I used rebounds (probably should have just looked at defensive rebounds), steals, blocks and team rank.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
McKay vs Ejim Update
With a larger sample size I figured I would compare McKay's numbers to those of Ejim's Big 12 POY year last year. Here are the raw numbers:
| Player | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks |
| McKay | 23.9 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Ejim | 32.1 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Obviously Ejim's raw numbers are far and away better than McKay's in everything except for blocks. When you factor in the minutes played it tells a little different story. McKay hasn't played as many minutes as Ejim for a number of reasons this year. One would figure that McKay's minutes will continue to rise as the year goes on. I calculated their stats per 40 minutes to even out the minutes. Here are the results:
| Per 40 Min | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | |
| McKay | 40 | 18.1 | 10.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Ejim | 40 | 22.2 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Those are a lot closer than people might think. Ejim scored a touch more but obviously had the benefit of being able to shoot the three pointer. He also added over an assist more a game but didn't come close to matching McKay's 4.0 blocks per 40 minutes. Ejim's season was great. Earning Big 12 Player of the Year is nothing to bat an eye at. None of this is meant to take anything away from him or his season. It is simply to point out just how productive McKay has been. If you take away Ejim's 48 point performance against TCU (or at least knock it down to his season average) it would take away a point per game. That probably isn't fair to do because he did accomplish it but its worth noting. Devil's advocate would say Ejim being able to log that many minutes added to his value and so comparing 40 min per stats isn't fair. My response would be a) McKay's minutes will continue to rise and b) its not like ISU is playing 4 on 5 when he isn't on the floor. There is production coming from that spot on the floor whether it is as good as McKay's or not. For example when McKay isn't on the floor it probably means Niang is getting more touches which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Just because I was curious, on top of the 40 minute stats I wanted to compare at this point based on McKay's minutes and based on Ejim's minutes so here they are:
| McKay's Min | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | |
| McKay | 23.9 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Ejim | 23.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Ejim's Min | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Blocks | |
| McKay | 32.1 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| Ejim | 32.1 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Conclusion
What can we draw from all of this? McKay is really playing at an all-conference level and he is just starting to hit his groove. His numbers, in my opinion, should go up more before they plateau. One might argue that McKay has the ability to be a little more valuable given his defensive value. It is very possible Iowa State could have three contenders for Big 12 Player of the Year in 2015-16.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
All Big-12 Teams Update
We're about three quarters through the season, so it's time for another All Big 12 team update.
Monte has slipped behind Buddy Hield for POY, but he's well ahead of everyone else. If Monte doesn't finish on the first team, it'll be a real shame.
Jameel McKay makes his first appearance on the list. TaShawn Thomas is still the frontrunner for newcomer of the year but Jameel could make it interesting in the last couple of weeks.
Georges made some progress since the last update, but the stats are being concentrated as everyone's rotations are tightening up.
It's a little surprising that ISU is in second place in the conference and only has three people on my list. I think it speaks to the depth of the team. There are seven players who could lead the team in any stat on any night. It also highlights the impact McKay has had in only two months. Moving into the starting lineup gives him more opportunity, obviously, but I think it helps Hogue moving to the small forward spot. And BDJ looks to have free reign off the bench. Nader's brought a scoring punch in limited minutes too. ISU's starting to peak at the right time.
Monte has slipped behind Buddy Hield for POY, but he's well ahead of everyone else. If Monte doesn't finish on the first team, it'll be a real shame.
Jameel McKay makes his first appearance on the list. TaShawn Thomas is still the frontrunner for newcomer of the year but Jameel could make it interesting in the last couple of weeks.
Georges made some progress since the last update, but the stats are being concentrated as everyone's rotations are tightening up.
It's a little surprising that ISU is in second place in the conference and only has three people on my list. I think it speaks to the depth of the team. There are seven players who could lead the team in any stat on any night. It also highlights the impact McKay has had in only two months. Moving into the starting lineup gives him more opportunity, obviously, but I think it helps Hogue moving to the small forward spot. And BDJ looks to have free reign off the bench. Nader's brought a scoring punch in limited minutes too. ISU's starting to peak at the right time.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Take a Deep Breath
There is a quote out there that goes "It's never as good or as bad as it seems." It would be hard to reach that conclusion on your local message board. In fact you might conclude the opposite is true. To me, I think the quote is pretty spot on and applicable when it comes to this ISU basketball team. As we enter the final straight away of Big XII play the words tossed around about this team are concerned, mentally weak, lazy, selfish. You would think we are talking about a bubble team that is on the verge of pissing their postseason hopes away. This is where the "not as bad as it seems" part of the quote comes in really handy.
If I asked someone to put together a mock resume for a team with this proclaimed characteristics at this point in the season it wouldn't be favorable. 14 wins? A 6-6 conference record? Would you consider an injury free team with a potential for a 3 seed to be causing fans much anxiety? I wouldn't, but it has. As we sit today Iowa State is solid 17-6 and 7-4 in conference with several big wins on the resume. So what is the problem? I really don't know but I'll try to explain.
Message board fans don't (at least I hope) represent the entire fan base but I'm starting to think more and more it is a pretty strong barometer of where most of the fan base sits. I go to work the day after a game (win or lose) and the negative opinions from the message boards find their way there too. Negativity truly does breed more negativity. I used to get a lot more upset about losses than I do now. In fact, I'd turn all 50 shades of red and usually just go mute for hours afterward. The close losses still sting, as do the bad losses but somewhere between becoming a teacher and a father I realized that the season is one big process. It is a long tumultuous season that will have ups and downs. It is what makes watching sports great. Big wins wouldn't mean as much without tough losses. There will be losses and poor performances along the way. Please, accept that. It is a process.
There is another saying out there that goes something like "what have you done for me lately." As we waited for this basketball season to start we were left with the memories of a great season just a year ago. A Big 12 championship, a Sweet 16 appearance and national writers telling us we were a Final Four team pre-Niang injury. That is what winning six of their seven will do. We don't remember the three game losing streak, or the fact that the team would have been riding another three game losing streak heading into postseason play had Phil Forte not missed a late free throw at home. Last season was fun, it really was, but this season hasn't been all that different.
What I'm trying to say is that almost everything last years team accomplished is still on the table for this years team. In fact, there are a couple things that this years team could accomplish that last years couldn't. As we sit here on February 12th this team is only a game behind last years "pace" overall and a little ahead of their conference "pace". This team still hasn't lost at home and still hasn't lost two games in a row. When you look at Bracketology this team has already earned credibility as a high seed that last years team didn't earn until their Big 12 tournament run. More importantly, this years team still has the ability to make a deep run in the tournament.
I ask that you do me a favor as you watch this team the rest of the year. Enjoy. For four hours a week in the midst of some of the longest months Cyclone basketball gives us an escape. Sure, they are frustrating at times to watch, but it makes the moments that "click" that much more enjoyable. This years team is pretty damn good. There are still big games ahead. They will win some, they will lose some. The fun part is still ahead of us. This team has the tools to do some things in the postseason ISU hasn't done in quite some time (and maybe ever). Take a deep, deep breath. You just might be holding it until April.
If I asked someone to put together a mock resume for a team with this proclaimed characteristics at this point in the season it wouldn't be favorable. 14 wins? A 6-6 conference record? Would you consider an injury free team with a potential for a 3 seed to be causing fans much anxiety? I wouldn't, but it has. As we sit today Iowa State is solid 17-6 and 7-4 in conference with several big wins on the resume. So what is the problem? I really don't know but I'll try to explain.
Message board fans don't (at least I hope) represent the entire fan base but I'm starting to think more and more it is a pretty strong barometer of where most of the fan base sits. I go to work the day after a game (win or lose) and the negative opinions from the message boards find their way there too. Negativity truly does breed more negativity. I used to get a lot more upset about losses than I do now. In fact, I'd turn all 50 shades of red and usually just go mute for hours afterward. The close losses still sting, as do the bad losses but somewhere between becoming a teacher and a father I realized that the season is one big process. It is a long tumultuous season that will have ups and downs. It is what makes watching sports great. Big wins wouldn't mean as much without tough losses. There will be losses and poor performances along the way. Please, accept that. It is a process.
There is another saying out there that goes something like "what have you done for me lately." As we waited for this basketball season to start we were left with the memories of a great season just a year ago. A Big 12 championship, a Sweet 16 appearance and national writers telling us we were a Final Four team pre-Niang injury. That is what winning six of their seven will do. We don't remember the three game losing streak, or the fact that the team would have been riding another three game losing streak heading into postseason play had Phil Forte not missed a late free throw at home. Last season was fun, it really was, but this season hasn't been all that different.
What I'm trying to say is that almost everything last years team accomplished is still on the table for this years team. In fact, there are a couple things that this years team could accomplish that last years couldn't. As we sit here on February 12th this team is only a game behind last years "pace" overall and a little ahead of their conference "pace". This team still hasn't lost at home and still hasn't lost two games in a row. When you look at Bracketology this team has already earned credibility as a high seed that last years team didn't earn until their Big 12 tournament run. More importantly, this years team still has the ability to make a deep run in the tournament.
I ask that you do me a favor as you watch this team the rest of the year. Enjoy. For four hours a week in the midst of some of the longest months Cyclone basketball gives us an escape. Sure, they are frustrating at times to watch, but it makes the moments that "click" that much more enjoyable. This years team is pretty damn good. There are still big games ahead. They will win some, they will lose some. The fun part is still ahead of us. This team has the tools to do some things in the postseason ISU hasn't done in quite some time (and maybe ever). Take a deep, deep breath. You just might be holding it until April.
Monday, February 2, 2015
One Big Key for ISU vs KU
If there has been on constant in Bill Self's preparation for Iowa State it has been to let Niang let it fly from deep. In seven career games against Kansas Niang has hoisted up 40 three point attempts. That is almost six a game! In his career he has averaged 2.8, 4.3 and 3.4 three-point field goal attempts per game in each of his three seasons. His lowest number of attempts (4) against Kansas came in the Big 12 tournament win last season. This happened to be the first game Niang played against KU in which they did not have a shot blocker on the floor in Whithey or Embiid. What did he do? He proceeded to go 10-18 on two-point field goals in route to a 25 point effort.
Kansas doesn't have that 7 footer they have had in the past although they do have some athletic big guys that could block a shot. Playing the Niang 3 point lottery could result in a win for the Cyclones but it more than likely favors Kansas. Self wants to make Niang one dimensional and although he can shoot it from deep he is much better around the rim. If Niang finds himself wide open on the perimeter it may not be as much about ISU moving the ball well, but rather Kansas letting Niang chuck it up from deep.
Is there some risk involved for Kansas? Yes, especially with the way Niang has been shooting lately, but there is also the possibility of him going 0-9 like he did on Big Monday last year. I think ISU really needs Niang to try to establish himself inside first. If we see Niang taking 9 three point field goals tonight, it may not be good for the Cyclones.
Kansas doesn't have that 7 footer they have had in the past although they do have some athletic big guys that could block a shot. Playing the Niang 3 point lottery could result in a win for the Cyclones but it more than likely favors Kansas. Self wants to make Niang one dimensional and although he can shoot it from deep he is much better around the rim. If Niang finds himself wide open on the perimeter it may not be as much about ISU moving the ball well, but rather Kansas letting Niang chuck it up from deep.
Is there some risk involved for Kansas? Yes, especially with the way Niang has been shooting lately, but there is also the possibility of him going 0-9 like he did on Big Monday last year. I think ISU really needs Niang to try to establish himself inside first. If we see Niang taking 9 three point field goals tonight, it may not be good for the Cyclones.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Monte Morris Big 12 POY?
With the strength and depth of the Big 12 this year, it's no surprise there are a lot of individually talented players vying for the end of the year conference awards. The stats are spread a little more evenly, which means a little less strength at the top but much more competition for the third and honorable mention teams. There will be some very good players show up lower on the list than might have been expected.
ISU does have a player in the hunt for the Big 12 POY, but it's not who you think. Monte Morris, who was on my first team in my previous update, has now pulled essentially even with Buddy Hield. Monte has held strong as the leader in the conference for assists, and near the top in steals. But over the last three games, he's averaged over 16 points a game, pushing him to 12th among all scorers.
Could Monte really be considered for the award this year? I think so. Every broadcast, the announcers mention him as one of, if not the best, point guard in the country. If he's the best in the country, he's certainly the best in the conference, and that deserves some kind of recognition. Monte has been a little more assertive with his scoring. After his drives to the basket lately someone comes up and does the Kane flex thing which makes me think something was said. He's been efficient so it would help the team if his usage went up a bit.
I'd switch Anderson and Perry Ellis, but otherwise feel pretty good about the first two teams. There's virtually no separation between the players on the third team and honorable mention. A bunch of solid names through the end of the list.
TaShawn Thomas looks like the front runner for newcomer of the year (unless I'm missing someone). Bryce has some ground to make up, but I think it's possible. His rebounding numbers are still good and Fred seems to have taken the reigns off his offensive game. A couple more points per game and he'll be right there with Thomas.
Georges can't get much higher on points alone, so I still think he needs to move up in rebounds and assists. He'd need to average about 7 rpg and 4 assists for the rest of the season to get on my first team. Georges is currently averaging 5.1 and 2.9. He's been pretty consistent in both categories so a couple big games would help.
ISU does have a player in the hunt for the Big 12 POY, but it's not who you think. Monte Morris, who was on my first team in my previous update, has now pulled essentially even with Buddy Hield. Monte has held strong as the leader in the conference for assists, and near the top in steals. But over the last three games, he's averaged over 16 points a game, pushing him to 12th among all scorers.
Could Monte really be considered for the award this year? I think so. Every broadcast, the announcers mention him as one of, if not the best, point guard in the country. If he's the best in the country, he's certainly the best in the conference, and that deserves some kind of recognition. Monte has been a little more assertive with his scoring. After his drives to the basket lately someone comes up and does the Kane flex thing which makes me think something was said. He's been efficient so it would help the team if his usage went up a bit.
I'd switch Anderson and Perry Ellis, but otherwise feel pretty good about the first two teams. There's virtually no separation between the players on the third team and honorable mention. A bunch of solid names through the end of the list.
TaShawn Thomas looks like the front runner for newcomer of the year (unless I'm missing someone). Bryce has some ground to make up, but I think it's possible. His rebounding numbers are still good and Fred seems to have taken the reigns off his offensive game. A couple more points per game and he'll be right there with Thomas.
Georges can't get much higher on points alone, so I still think he needs to move up in rebounds and assists. He'd need to average about 7 rpg and 4 assists for the rest of the season to get on my first team. Georges is currently averaging 5.1 and 2.9. He's been pretty consistent in both categories so a couple big games would help.
Sunday, January 25, 2015
ISU Basketball State of the Team
In honor (?) of the State of the Union address, I'll weigh in with a couple thoughts about the bad loss to Texas Tech and the overall picture of the team.
Yesterday's loss was a bad one, but it was one we could all see coming. ISU has had a history of playing to the level of its competition and this year is no different. I don't think the team overlooked Tech, I believe the coaching staff did all it could to keep the team focused on the game ahead of them. My feeling had been that ISU played poorly on the road because so many other schools have underwhelming crowds. This team, like most, relish the villain role as much as being hometown favorite. But that wasn't the case in Lubbock. The crowd, while not huge, came alive with the team early in the first half and kept the noise and intensity throughout. Everyone was jacked up for the matchup with a top ten team. So what happened?
Iowa State gave up a run, like they've been prone to do. They aren't going to turn any games around with their defense so when they're offense sputters, the game can really get out of hand. I thought they had good looks and took good shots, but when the threes aren't falling, they need to do something different, and do it earlier. In the second half, when the Cyclones fed the ball into the paint good things happened. Easy baskets, foul shots, offensive rebounds. All things that manufacture points when the offense isn't working.
This looks to be missing a guy like a Dwayne Wade circa 2006 or current James Harden who can get force the issue and get to the line. Everyone points to DeAndre Kane from last year, and he fit the role pretty well for a college player, of course we forget that we hated everything he did at the end of halves and complained about him being too selfish. I think we've got a couple players on this team that can serve the same purpose. Both Hogue and McKay have done a better job of playing through the contact and making the basket when they're fouled. This reduces their liability on the free throw line, while getting ISU closer to the bonus and making foul trouble an issue for the opposing bigs. Neither of those guys are threats to pass out of the low post, so it probably wouldn't work for long stretches, but it would be a different look for the offense.
I do believe that Iowa State is struggling with the pressure of being ranked in the top 10. Going back to my first thoughts, when they're ranked this high, opposing teams are going to keep pushing. When previously a funk might have resulted in three unanswered baskets, is now turning into 20-1 runs. The other team won't lose its intensity and focus, the Cyclones can't afford to not match it. They didn't play with a sense of urgency until the second half.
Obviously, Fred saw something from Bryce that he didn't like, since BDJ sat most of the second half. I hope he hasn't given up on him. Everyone sucked yesterday and I didn't see Bryce sucking any more than anyone else. His length definitely helps the defense, and makes him one of the only players on the team that can get their shot off anywhere. He's best or second best on the team in offensive and defensive rebound rate, steal rate, fouls against and free throw rate. Basically everything this team has been struggling with in conference play. Matt Thomas certainly hasn't shown me anything to justify eating into BDJ's minutes.
Why should fans be optimistic going forward? This team has more athleticism than the previous four years combined. McKay, Bryce and Nader have all made plays this year that are pretty foreign to ISU fans. Overall their effort has been pretty good too. This current rotation has only really played 7 games together (I'm not counting Drake or MVST), so I think they'll get a better feel for each other and play better basketball as the season goes on, as all of Fred's teams do. Monte showed he can step up. I thought we'd see a little more of that earlier in the season, but maybe he'll become more assertive now. Hogue continues to do Hogue things. Maybe he picked up a few tricks from South Carolina, West Virgina and Kansas State, I don't know, but he's going hard after every rebound and loose ball and daring the refs to call fouls. He was a big reason they fought back into the Tech game.
Finally, they do play to the level of competition and to the moment. It's why they won the Big 12 tournament last year, it's why they've won four games in the last three NCAA tournaments. I just don't believe playing at Texas Tech in January is anything like playing in the tournament. UCONN lost at Houston last year, and they did OK. When you play in as many close games as ISU has this year, you're going to lose some. No team is lucky enough to win every game by a couple of points. Maybe this isn't the year that the Cyclones dethrone the Jayhawks for the Big 12 title, but that's no prerequisite for NCAA tournament success.
Yesterday's loss was a bad one, but it was one we could all see coming. ISU has had a history of playing to the level of its competition and this year is no different. I don't think the team overlooked Tech, I believe the coaching staff did all it could to keep the team focused on the game ahead of them. My feeling had been that ISU played poorly on the road because so many other schools have underwhelming crowds. This team, like most, relish the villain role as much as being hometown favorite. But that wasn't the case in Lubbock. The crowd, while not huge, came alive with the team early in the first half and kept the noise and intensity throughout. Everyone was jacked up for the matchup with a top ten team. So what happened?
Iowa State gave up a run, like they've been prone to do. They aren't going to turn any games around with their defense so when they're offense sputters, the game can really get out of hand. I thought they had good looks and took good shots, but when the threes aren't falling, they need to do something different, and do it earlier. In the second half, when the Cyclones fed the ball into the paint good things happened. Easy baskets, foul shots, offensive rebounds. All things that manufacture points when the offense isn't working.
This looks to be missing a guy like a Dwayne Wade circa 2006 or current James Harden who can get force the issue and get to the line. Everyone points to DeAndre Kane from last year, and he fit the role pretty well for a college player, of course we forget that we hated everything he did at the end of halves and complained about him being too selfish. I think we've got a couple players on this team that can serve the same purpose. Both Hogue and McKay have done a better job of playing through the contact and making the basket when they're fouled. This reduces their liability on the free throw line, while getting ISU closer to the bonus and making foul trouble an issue for the opposing bigs. Neither of those guys are threats to pass out of the low post, so it probably wouldn't work for long stretches, but it would be a different look for the offense.
I do believe that Iowa State is struggling with the pressure of being ranked in the top 10. Going back to my first thoughts, when they're ranked this high, opposing teams are going to keep pushing. When previously a funk might have resulted in three unanswered baskets, is now turning into 20-1 runs. The other team won't lose its intensity and focus, the Cyclones can't afford to not match it. They didn't play with a sense of urgency until the second half.
Obviously, Fred saw something from Bryce that he didn't like, since BDJ sat most of the second half. I hope he hasn't given up on him. Everyone sucked yesterday and I didn't see Bryce sucking any more than anyone else. His length definitely helps the defense, and makes him one of the only players on the team that can get their shot off anywhere. He's best or second best on the team in offensive and defensive rebound rate, steal rate, fouls against and free throw rate. Basically everything this team has been struggling with in conference play. Matt Thomas certainly hasn't shown me anything to justify eating into BDJ's minutes.
Why should fans be optimistic going forward? This team has more athleticism than the previous four years combined. McKay, Bryce and Nader have all made plays this year that are pretty foreign to ISU fans. Overall their effort has been pretty good too. This current rotation has only really played 7 games together (I'm not counting Drake or MVST), so I think they'll get a better feel for each other and play better basketball as the season goes on, as all of Fred's teams do. Monte showed he can step up. I thought we'd see a little more of that earlier in the season, but maybe he'll become more assertive now. Hogue continues to do Hogue things. Maybe he picked up a few tricks from South Carolina, West Virgina and Kansas State, I don't know, but he's going hard after every rebound and loose ball and daring the refs to call fouls. He was a big reason they fought back into the Tech game.
Finally, they do play to the level of competition and to the moment. It's why they won the Big 12 tournament last year, it's why they've won four games in the last three NCAA tournaments. I just don't believe playing at Texas Tech in January is anything like playing in the tournament. UCONN lost at Houston last year, and they did OK. When you play in as many close games as ISU has this year, you're going to lose some. No team is lucky enough to win every game by a couple of points. Maybe this isn't the year that the Cyclones dethrone the Jayhawks for the Big 12 title, but that's no prerequisite for NCAA tournament success.
Thursday, January 22, 2015
All Big 12 through 1/21/15
A little over a quarter of the Big 12 season is done, so it's time for an update to my All Big 12 rankings.
A few quick thoughts. Kansas always represents better on my list in the conference season than in the non-conference. They won't get three people on the first team. Kelly Oubre is finally getting the minutes he should, and he's been playing well. But Frank Mason is their top scorer. It'll be a tight race between those two for the second KU player on the first team.
Monte might be a surprise, but he's leading the conference in assists, fourth in steals and leading the conference in minutes for a first place team. If he'd been on any all Big 12 team last year, I'd feel better about it.
The pre-season all Big 12 player Juwan Staten isn't found on my lists. He wasn't my preseason pick for underwhelmer of the year (Le'Bryan Nash was) but he'll have to step up his game to get in the post-season award conversation.
The freshmen have finally made an impact. Oubre is on my first team and Turner is on my second team. Neither of these guys made preseason teams. Both will make the first or second team at the end of the year.
My guess for underrated player is Rico Gathers. That kid is a beast. He'll continue to tear up teams.
Bryce Dejean-Jones is contributing in rebounds and steals. If he plays enough minutes, he should be able to contribute in points and assists, getting him at least to the second team. Right now, he's well behind TaShawn Thomas (an article for another day) for the newcomer of the year award.
Finally, Georges. At this point in the season, I've actually got him slightly better than he was at the end of last season, unfortunately, there are a lot of people bunched up between the second and third teams. Georges has picked up his scoring, as he needed to, and he's in the top 20 for rebounds. His assists have slipped, and that would get him close to the second team. In this league, you really need to make an impact in four, if not five, of the statistical categories of points, rebounds, steals, blocks and minutes, to get into the first team. Georges is currently only in the top of three. This conference, like all college basketball, is really built for guards to dominate. If he can step up his rebounding or assists, I see him as a second team all-Big 12 player.
A few quick thoughts. Kansas always represents better on my list in the conference season than in the non-conference. They won't get three people on the first team. Kelly Oubre is finally getting the minutes he should, and he's been playing well. But Frank Mason is their top scorer. It'll be a tight race between those two for the second KU player on the first team.
Monte might be a surprise, but he's leading the conference in assists, fourth in steals and leading the conference in minutes for a first place team. If he'd been on any all Big 12 team last year, I'd feel better about it.
The pre-season all Big 12 player Juwan Staten isn't found on my lists. He wasn't my preseason pick for underwhelmer of the year (Le'Bryan Nash was) but he'll have to step up his game to get in the post-season award conversation.
The freshmen have finally made an impact. Oubre is on my first team and Turner is on my second team. Neither of these guys made preseason teams. Both will make the first or second team at the end of the year.
My guess for underrated player is Rico Gathers. That kid is a beast. He'll continue to tear up teams.
Bryce Dejean-Jones is contributing in rebounds and steals. If he plays enough minutes, he should be able to contribute in points and assists, getting him at least to the second team. Right now, he's well behind TaShawn Thomas (an article for another day) for the newcomer of the year award.
Finally, Georges. At this point in the season, I've actually got him slightly better than he was at the end of last season, unfortunately, there are a lot of people bunched up between the second and third teams. Georges has picked up his scoring, as he needed to, and he's in the top 20 for rebounds. His assists have slipped, and that would get him close to the second team. In this league, you really need to make an impact in four, if not five, of the statistical categories of points, rebounds, steals, blocks and minutes, to get into the first team. Georges is currently only in the top of three. This conference, like all college basketball, is really built for guards to dominate. If he can step up his rebounding or assists, I see him as a second team all-Big 12 player.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Non-conference All-Big 12 2015
The last couple years, I've shared my all-Big 12 non conference teams. Historically, I've got 80% right for 1st team, 1st and 2nd team, 1st, 2nd and 3rd team, etc. This has all the non-conference games included, but some conference games too.
A couple things, in my previous projections, I had both Bryce and Georges in my first team. Per my projections, this is a much tighter run than last years All-Big 12. Perhaps that means a tighter team race for the Big 12 championship as well.
I'll go hard and stand by my 80% streak. I think Staten, Forte and Nash have the best chances of being on the first team at the end. Someone from KU will make it, so I'll stick with Mason. My boy Kyan will slip to second team. I don't like having two players from a team that should be bottom half of the league, but I don't think either of those player will slip.
As for the Cyclones, it's not surprising they've fallen with the teams they have played. They've played garbage in the non-con and the minutes and production have suffered. That said, they played 6 out of the 12 teams against decent competition. Any positives had the chance to shine brightly. A tune-up game against South Carolina didn't show anything from the top 3 candidates, if anything, exposed their weaknesses.
Of the three, Bryce has the best chance of cracking the 1st team. His production in points is down a bit but he still rebounds and assists at a high level. Next is really between Monte and Georges. There are about 18 players within striking distance of the second team and I think it'll be a skirmish. Monte doesn't add points, blocks or rebounds at a high enough level to make it,. Georges needs to up his assists, and also his rebounding to be a factor.
Naz needs to make a statement in something other than scoring.
I think ISU will finish top half of the league, which will mean at least one player on the first team. At this point, I think it will be BDJ.
I'll keep up as the conference season goes on. As I've said before, this is non-conference stats and the real ones may vary wildly.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
What's McKay Add?
So the general consensus is in, and it is: Mckay is great, everyone else has been bad lately. I can't dispute that McKay has been playing great basketball since he's been eligible, but there's a couple things to look at.
McKay didn't play as many minutes as I thought against Drake and MVSU, but you could tell he was playing his game and was the focal point when he was in there. McKay had only 2 fewer FG attempts in those two games than Niang (25-12 Niang in the two since). So Niang and others were facilitating, while McKay was playing his game, warming up after 1.5 years of not playing competitively. That gives him an advantage. Everyone else looked like they'd been off for three weeks against South Carolina while McKay looked ready. I think this has much to do with it.
McKay has improved the defensive efficiency. It's gone from 84th after the Drake game to 56th after the Oklahoma State game. He's meant something on that side of the ball. He is a shot blocker (7 through 3 games) and a shot changer.
That said, I think ISU was gambling too much against South Carolina. Everyone has bought into McKay being a rim protector and the team maybe too much. Where the team had excelled before - shading players' strong hand, staying in front, guarding the baseline - all seemed to break down in that game. The fans are excited, the players are excited about a defensive changer, but I think the benefit will show most when the Cyclones play their style of defense on the perimeter and let McKay erase some of the mistakes (which aren't hard to find). Let him be a defensive backstop instead of putting everything on him.
As an offensive player, he's been as good as advertised or even better. He's had 38 points in 84 minutes, or 13.5 points per 30 minutes, as has been pointed out before. He's had those alley-oops, he's had those dunk put-backs. He's had those dunk and fouls. Sure his FT% has been poor (42.1%) but he's been making a lot of the shots on which he's been fouled. McKay's running of the floor will have other teams compensating. And his rebounding has been helpful.
Here's where I think McKay hurts a little bit, on the offensive side. The previous two years, Georges had been the tallest (and heaviest) man on the court for the Cyclones. So the other teams tallest, and heaviest man, usually guarded him. Because Ejim and Hogue and others were outside threats, they could take their men out to the three point line and let Niang work one-on-one against the other team's center in the paint. Georges can get his shot off against one person bigger than him and have success. Through two games, it looks like the increased quickness of the other teams' 4 and the size of the other teams' 5 have been tougher to overcome. He's struggled some down low, since McKay has been in the lineup.
Here's how to fix that. When Georges is going to be isolated down low, which is often, McKay should start working his way out of the paint. He'll give up the offensive board opportunity but hopefully the other team's big man will follow. If the other team's center stays low, McKay isn't a threat to shoot from outside (I don't think), but Georges is a good enough passer to get it to him. Hopefully this triggers a reaction for the defense, and McKay can swing the ball around to shooters. I think McKay is a good enough handle to make this work. It might even help, if McKay moves outside and toward another ISU player. Niang gets the ball to McKay, someone help defends on McKay, he gets the ball to someone else, and there might be an opportunity to get the ball back to Niang in the post where he can do work.
Fred's half-court set, his transition offense is all built on spacing. I think spacing makes Georges work. Even in the pros an iso can't work if defenses are sagging. If McKay can show any ability to either make a 15 ft jumper on the baseline, or be able to work the ball around, it will open up Georges so he can work more efficiently down low.
All that said, McKay has added an unique element to this team that hasn't been there before. His ability to rebound, run the break, block and affect shots, is really something this team hasn't had before. I think it's just a matter of spacing on the offensive side of the floor and Fred is the right man to make it right.
McKay didn't play as many minutes as I thought against Drake and MVSU, but you could tell he was playing his game and was the focal point when he was in there. McKay had only 2 fewer FG attempts in those two games than Niang (25-12 Niang in the two since). So Niang and others were facilitating, while McKay was playing his game, warming up after 1.5 years of not playing competitively. That gives him an advantage. Everyone else looked like they'd been off for three weeks against South Carolina while McKay looked ready. I think this has much to do with it.
McKay has improved the defensive efficiency. It's gone from 84th after the Drake game to 56th after the Oklahoma State game. He's meant something on that side of the ball. He is a shot blocker (7 through 3 games) and a shot changer.
That said, I think ISU was gambling too much against South Carolina. Everyone has bought into McKay being a rim protector and the team maybe too much. Where the team had excelled before - shading players' strong hand, staying in front, guarding the baseline - all seemed to break down in that game. The fans are excited, the players are excited about a defensive changer, but I think the benefit will show most when the Cyclones play their style of defense on the perimeter and let McKay erase some of the mistakes (which aren't hard to find). Let him be a defensive backstop instead of putting everything on him.
As an offensive player, he's been as good as advertised or even better. He's had 38 points in 84 minutes, or 13.5 points per 30 minutes, as has been pointed out before. He's had those alley-oops, he's had those dunk put-backs. He's had those dunk and fouls. Sure his FT% has been poor (42.1%) but he's been making a lot of the shots on which he's been fouled. McKay's running of the floor will have other teams compensating. And his rebounding has been helpful.
Here's where I think McKay hurts a little bit, on the offensive side. The previous two years, Georges had been the tallest (and heaviest) man on the court for the Cyclones. So the other teams tallest, and heaviest man, usually guarded him. Because Ejim and Hogue and others were outside threats, they could take their men out to the three point line and let Niang work one-on-one against the other team's center in the paint. Georges can get his shot off against one person bigger than him and have success. Through two games, it looks like the increased quickness of the other teams' 4 and the size of the other teams' 5 have been tougher to overcome. He's struggled some down low, since McKay has been in the lineup.
Here's how to fix that. When Georges is going to be isolated down low, which is often, McKay should start working his way out of the paint. He'll give up the offensive board opportunity but hopefully the other team's big man will follow. If the other team's center stays low, McKay isn't a threat to shoot from outside (I don't think), but Georges is a good enough passer to get it to him. Hopefully this triggers a reaction for the defense, and McKay can swing the ball around to shooters. I think McKay is a good enough handle to make this work. It might even help, if McKay moves outside and toward another ISU player. Niang gets the ball to McKay, someone help defends on McKay, he gets the ball to someone else, and there might be an opportunity to get the ball back to Niang in the post where he can do work.
Fred's half-court set, his transition offense is all built on spacing. I think spacing makes Georges work. Even in the pros an iso can't work if defenses are sagging. If McKay can show any ability to either make a 15 ft jumper on the baseline, or be able to work the ball around, it will open up Georges so he can work more efficiently down low.
All that said, McKay has added an unique element to this team that hasn't been there before. His ability to rebound, run the break, block and affect shots, is really something this team hasn't had before. I think it's just a matter of spacing on the offensive side of the floor and Fred is the right man to make it right.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
What Can We Expect From McKay Going Forward?
I'm going to do something very, very dangerous on this New Year's Eve. On a night where everyone is out letting loose and throwing caution to the wind one last time for the year I am going to do the same. Kids, don't try this at home. I'm going to take McKay's numbers thus far in just two games and use them to predict his future production. Why is this dangerous? Well, I once scored 5 points in a span of 30 seconds in a student vs staff basketball game. I haven't exactly kept up that pace. Anyway, here we go!
As I've stated above, I realize its only two games and two games against teams that barely have a pulse (no offense, Drake). However, this is the data we have to draw on and I don't think McKay's game will change a whole lot based on competition. He will get garbage points and those don't have a lot to do with defense. I "extrapolated" the data to show his numbers for 30 minutes. Do I think he will get 30 minutes a game soon? Probably not, but those are "starter" minutes and I think McKay will creep closer and closer to that threshold.
Should we expect to see McKay produce a line of 18/11/3 against better competition? Probably not, but what if he produces at just 80 percent of that clip? Here is the line:
Still pretty good huh? Just how good? Well, here was Melvin Ejim's production in similar criteria last year...
As I've stated above, I realize its only two games and two games against teams that barely have a pulse (no offense, Drake). However, this is the data we have to draw on and I don't think McKay's game will change a whole lot based on competition. He will get garbage points and those don't have a lot to do with defense. I "extrapolated" the data to show his numbers for 30 minutes. Do I think he will get 30 minutes a game soon? Probably not, but those are "starter" minutes and I think McKay will creep closer and closer to that threshold.
| Min | FGM | FGA | Points | Reb | Blocks | |
| vs Drake | 13 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| vs MVSU | 17 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| Season Avg | 15 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 |
| Avg/Min | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Avg/30 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 |
Should we expect to see McKay produce a line of 18/11/3 against better competition? Probably not, but what if he produces at just 80 percent of that clip? Here is the line:
| Min | FGM | FGA | Points | Reb | Blocks | |
| Comp. Adj. | 30 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 14.4 | 8.8 | 2.4 |
Still pretty good huh? Just how good? Well, here was Melvin Ejim's production in similar criteria last year...
| Ejim | Min | FGM | FGA | Points | Reb | Blocks |
| 32.1 | 6.5 | 12.8 | 17.8 | 8.4 | 0.7 | |
| Avg/30 | 30 | 6.1 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
I adjusted Ejim's totals for 30 minutes per game to match McKay's. Ejim shot a lower percentage, but also shot many more 3pt FGA's than McKay will ever take. Ejim also contributed in a lot of other ways that McKay might not such as free throw makes and assists, but you get the drift. McKay is pretty close to Ejim's numbers from last year. A year in which Ejim won Big 12 Player of the Year. Look, no one expected McKay to come in and be the Big 12 POY. Ok, maybe some people did. But, the point is his numbers are awfully close even after taking 80 percent of their values.
It will be interesting to see how this all correlates on Saturday against much stiffer competition. Projecting him for 30 minutes is probably a bit high especially considering the pace at which he plays but the point remains, he has produced at a high level thus far.
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