Monday, February 27, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/27/12
Well, who could have envisioned this? Iowa State knocking on the door of the NCAA tournament, a chance at single-digit losses, Scotty and Melvin stepping up, Royce exceeding expectations, Fred can coach. It's truly incredible. It's rare the season that satisfies everyone, but this has to be it. I can't imagine anyone expecting a trip to the big dance when this season started. Let's just enjoy the ride.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 30 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 22-9 (12-6 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 33 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
There's not much to point out now. The record really speaks for itself. Any wins from here on out should be considered icing on the cake. The Cyclones offense always had the possibility of being explosive, what's surprising is the defense is starting to get stingy now. Babb has advanced from being a lockdown defender to more active in forcing turnovers. He's an important asset. What's most impressive is Royce's improvement on the defensive end. He's spent most of the season avoiding fouls but has been more imposing over the last few games. He'll need to be more agressive for this team to be successful in the Big XII tournament and NCAAs.
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl Predictions
Everything I've seen on the field points to a Giants victory in my opinion. I should be rooting for the NFC as a Bears fan. The Giants look like this year's version of the Packers. Why am I picking the Patriots to cover? Vegas tells me too.
At one point this week 65 percent of the money was on the Giants. I was a little shocked to see the Patriots open up as a 3.5 point favorite as well. My first thought was to take the points with the Giants and never look back. Then I thought back to November when Iowa State opened up as only a 1.5 point favorite at Drake in basketball. It was a guaranteed lock. In Vegas, if it looks to good to be true it probably is. To me, taking the Giants looks too good to be true. The number has now slipped down to 2.5 and I feel even better about taking the Patriots.
Las Vegas has lost money on two Super Bowls in the last 17 years. Last year was one of those years. They know where to set the line. They are in the business of making money pure and simple. Add in the fact that the Vegas favorite has won the game at an alarming percentage and I'll take the favorite, even giving the 2.5 points.
For once, I put my bias aside and looked at the bigger picture. Am I bound to look utterly stupid? Of course, but taking a favorite giving 2.5 points is one of my favorite spots to bet. I am hoping for a Patriots victory by 3-9 points. With that I would win a friendly wager with a friends that gave me Giants +9.5 (To be fair I gave him 2-1 odds) and I would also win a playoff point spread pool. My maximum return is 55 dollars. My maximum loss is 5 dollars. There is also a scenario in which I win 15 dollars. I'll take those odds.
Now for the fun part, the prop bets.
Coin Toss- Giants are calling tails. The coin will land on tails. Make it 15 in a row for the NFC
First TD- Hakeem Nicks. (8 to 1)
Super Bowl MVP- Wes Welker (12 to 1)
Giselle Bundchen Appearances O/U (1/2)- OVER. I hope its way over too. She is easy on the eyes.
First Person/People Super Bowl MVP Thanks- I'll take teammates at 1-1 odds.
Color of Gatorade Dumped: Orange at 5/2 odds.
I'll also learned this week that the "sharps" tend to jump on the low side of O/U prop bets. It makes sense. The public loves betting overs, myself included. For this reason, Vegas can still get action on both sides and there is some value to the under. Here are three "unders" that I like.
Brandon Jacobs Longest Rush (10.5 yards) -UNDER
Hakeem Nicks Longest Reception (26.5 yards)B- UNDER
Tom Brady Total Rushing Attempts (3)- UNDER
BenJarvus Green-Ellis Rushing Attempts (12.5)- UNDER
Deion Branch Total Receiving Yards (42.5)- UNDER
So there you go folks. Its not about what you know, its about what Vegas tells you to do. Sit back, grab some food, grab some drink and watch the desert smile!
Saturday, February 4, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 2/4/12
Today's effort will be a little more substantial than last week. Most NCAA Tournament prognosticators have ISU making the field at around an 11 seed. I believe it too. The ceiling gets raised every week for Iowa State.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 37 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 21-10 (11-7 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 39 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
First, this is incredible. The overall projected record was 14-17, which they've already surpassed. Sagarin only had ISU winning 3 games in conference play. How has Iowa State surpassed expectations? First, predictions are all based, at least to start the year, on last year's team. As pointed out here before, more than half of the minutes didn't return from 2010. Secondly, 3 of this team's starters hadn't played real basketball in a year (or two). Iowa State has improved throughout the year because the players are finding their roles. And Fred Hoiberg has become more aggressive in his coaching. Thirdly, the Cyclones have been able to limit their bad losses.
With tourney time coming up, the talk of bad losses and good wins have come up. Obviously, any win should be considered good (especially for ISU!), but some are bigger than others. But bad losses really hurt a team's stock. The only two that are bad according to the Sagarin ratings are Northern Iowa and Drake. ISU hasn't had a bad loss in conference play, which means their last one came on November 30th of last year. When the losses happened isn't looked at by the committee, but I'd bet there aren't many teams that have gone that long without a bad loss. The only good win so far was the Kansas victory at home. Not very impressive, but with ISU ranked in the 30's now, they're supposed to win most of their games.
Every game is big now. There are some opportunities for good wins (vs Baylor twice, Missouri, Kansas St on the road), perhaps more importantly, there are a couple games left that would be bad losses. Fortunately, all three of these are at home, where Iowa State has looked really tough. If they don't have any more bad losses and can pick up one more good win, they should be a lock for the tournament.
Finally, I've been meaning to point this out for a while now - Tyrus McGee is top 10 in the country in kenpom's offensive efficiency rating. He's currently 6th but has been as high as 2nd. He's certainly part of the reason the Cyclones are playing well down the stretch. He should have the green light whenever he's on the court.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 1/28/12
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 45 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 19-12 (9-9 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 48 (6th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
Short one today, but a lot has changed since the start of conference play. ISU has risen through the rankings, and appears to be at the doorstep to an invite to the NCAA tournament. Both kenpom and Sagarin have them ranked in the 40's and 6th in the Big XII. The projected records are a little apart, with Sagarin unchanged since two weeks ago. However, only 5 teams would be considered 'safe' to make the tournament, so the Cyclones still have some work to do.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Turning Point for ISU Athletics?
With the recent success of ISU men's basketball I couldn't help but take a step back and look at how this 2011-2012 academic year is progressing.
Football
It started with a football season that was destined for at best mediocrity and a below .500 record. What turned out doesn't appear to be much better with the final record reading 6-7. However, for a team that was favored it just TWO games all year long this is monumental. Add in a thrilling victory over Iowa, some domination over Texas Tech and a victory over the #2 team in the nation and ISU football now has several monkeys off their back.
Maybe more important for future success was the publicity ISU got throughout the end of the season because of Paul Rhoads. As with any successful coach, other schools will come calling. Rhoads answered those calls with a 10-year extension. An almost unheard of length for a college football coach. ISU has had consistency before at the head coach position in Dan McCarney. He brought ISU from the dead to having a pulse. It looks like Rhoads is now primed to take this program to being recognized nationally. If you have any doubts check out some of the offer lists of this recruiting class. This kid, Gary Simon, will choose on National Signing Day between Arkansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. That is significant. Sure, ISU is still going to arm wrestle with some MAC schools over a few recruits. Almost every BCS program does. However, athletes are beginning to take notice of what is going on in Ames. They see a passionate coach that doesn't appear to be leaving any time soon, possibility of early playing time and a chance to take down the big boys on ESPN. ISU hasn't got this much publicity since the year of Seneca. Even then, their publicity was short lived. The key for ISU going forward is consistency. This means making bowl games every year, knocking off an upset a year and periodically sneaking up to 8 or 9 wins. ISU has consistency in the coaching staff, a very, very young offense and a wizard calling the shots on defense. Football may never look back.
Basketball
Pollard took a calculated risk in hiring Fred Hoiberg just a season ago. As an ISU legend he was a popular hire with the fan base. If anyone would get the support of the fan base it would be Freddy. Fred had ZERO coaching experience when he was hired. Although at times it has reared its ugly head, Fred has also shown, in my opinion, what is even more important: the ability to recruit talent.
Many were skeptical of Hoiberg bringing in transfer players. Afterall, there was a reason that they were leaving their former schools. That didn't stop Hoiberg from bringing in a former 19th ranked recruit, a player with two Final Fours under his belt and two other significant contributors. As if that wasn't enough for him he brought in the point guard from a Final Four team and the second leading scorer in the Mountain West behind Jimmer Fredette. According to multiple Hoiberg quotes Clyburn has the most NBA potential out of anyone on the team.
It does appear as though he has slowed down on the transfer front, but he is competing with the big boys for the diaper-dandies now. Hoiberg has a stigma to him that is hard to ignore. The guy has the looks and style to steal any mom's heart. He has the NBA contacts and sales pitch to steal an 18 year olds heart. There is just something to be said for having a plethora of NBA scouts in the stands every home conference game.
Young basketball players are selfish now. They want to shoot, they want to score the want to get into the league. Hoiberg is offering every kid this opportunity. I am a firm believer in the thought that the smartest coach on the floor is the one with the best players. Hoiberg is growing as a coach, but his knack for recruiting is hard to ignore.
As we sit here six games into the conference season, ISU has hope once again of making it into the NCAA tournament. This is how it is supposed to be at ISU right? Even the last time ISU made the tournament they started 0-5 in the conference. ISU is 4-2 with close losses to two separate top-10 teams. The point of the matter is that once again ISU is looking toward post-season play. Hilton Magic is coming back slowly and recruits are looking towards Ames, Iowa as place to spend their collegiate career.
I realize there is more to ISU than just football and men's basketball. Let's be real. Those two sports run the athletic department at a majority of universities. What I enjoy most about these teams is they put a product on the field and court that I can be proud of. Their style of play is fun to watch and I am filled with optimism once again. I am not asking for a National Championship (give it a year or two), but I enjoy watching every game knowing there is a chance to win, not just cover the spread. ISU has long been the underdog and for the first time in a while it appears they are biting back.
Football
It started with a football season that was destined for at best mediocrity and a below .500 record. What turned out doesn't appear to be much better with the final record reading 6-7. However, for a team that was favored it just TWO games all year long this is monumental. Add in a thrilling victory over Iowa, some domination over Texas Tech and a victory over the #2 team in the nation and ISU football now has several monkeys off their back.
Maybe more important for future success was the publicity ISU got throughout the end of the season because of Paul Rhoads. As with any successful coach, other schools will come calling. Rhoads answered those calls with a 10-year extension. An almost unheard of length for a college football coach. ISU has had consistency before at the head coach position in Dan McCarney. He brought ISU from the dead to having a pulse. It looks like Rhoads is now primed to take this program to being recognized nationally. If you have any doubts check out some of the offer lists of this recruiting class. This kid, Gary Simon, will choose on National Signing Day between Arkansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State. That is significant. Sure, ISU is still going to arm wrestle with some MAC schools over a few recruits. Almost every BCS program does. However, athletes are beginning to take notice of what is going on in Ames. They see a passionate coach that doesn't appear to be leaving any time soon, possibility of early playing time and a chance to take down the big boys on ESPN. ISU hasn't got this much publicity since the year of Seneca. Even then, their publicity was short lived. The key for ISU going forward is consistency. This means making bowl games every year, knocking off an upset a year and periodically sneaking up to 8 or 9 wins. ISU has consistency in the coaching staff, a very, very young offense and a wizard calling the shots on defense. Football may never look back.
Basketball
Pollard took a calculated risk in hiring Fred Hoiberg just a season ago. As an ISU legend he was a popular hire with the fan base. If anyone would get the support of the fan base it would be Freddy. Fred had ZERO coaching experience when he was hired. Although at times it has reared its ugly head, Fred has also shown, in my opinion, what is even more important: the ability to recruit talent.
Many were skeptical of Hoiberg bringing in transfer players. Afterall, there was a reason that they were leaving their former schools. That didn't stop Hoiberg from bringing in a former 19th ranked recruit, a player with two Final Fours under his belt and two other significant contributors. As if that wasn't enough for him he brought in the point guard from a Final Four team and the second leading scorer in the Mountain West behind Jimmer Fredette. According to multiple Hoiberg quotes Clyburn has the most NBA potential out of anyone on the team.
It does appear as though he has slowed down on the transfer front, but he is competing with the big boys for the diaper-dandies now. Hoiberg has a stigma to him that is hard to ignore. The guy has the looks and style to steal any mom's heart. He has the NBA contacts and sales pitch to steal an 18 year olds heart. There is just something to be said for having a plethora of NBA scouts in the stands every home conference game.
Young basketball players are selfish now. They want to shoot, they want to score the want to get into the league. Hoiberg is offering every kid this opportunity. I am a firm believer in the thought that the smartest coach on the floor is the one with the best players. Hoiberg is growing as a coach, but his knack for recruiting is hard to ignore.
As we sit here six games into the conference season, ISU has hope once again of making it into the NCAA tournament. This is how it is supposed to be at ISU right? Even the last time ISU made the tournament they started 0-5 in the conference. ISU is 4-2 with close losses to two separate top-10 teams. The point of the matter is that once again ISU is looking toward post-season play. Hilton Magic is coming back slowly and recruits are looking towards Ames, Iowa as place to spend their collegiate career.
I realize there is more to ISU than just football and men's basketball. Let's be real. Those two sports run the athletic department at a majority of universities. What I enjoy most about these teams is they put a product on the field and court that I can be proud of. Their style of play is fun to watch and I am filled with optimism once again. I am not asking for a National Championship (give it a year or two), but I enjoy watching every game knowing there is a chance to win, not just cover the spread. ISU has long been the underdog and for the first time in a while it appears they are biting back.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Thoughts from New York
I could write a novel on my experiences in the "city that never sleeps". I will instead choose to keep it as brief as possible. Here is my "Top Ten" from New York City.
10. Chicago-style pizza is superior to New York-style pizza. The best piece of pizza on the trip may have been from small shop at 10:30 in the morning. I wish I would have visited more of those shops during the trip. Grimaldi's Pizza is vastly overrated and I have concluded that coal-oven pizza is not my thing.
9. Central Park is very unique. It really is just as the movies and shows and pictures depict it. It is quite something to have this giant park right in the middle of the city. We went through what I thought was a lot of it, but after looking at a map appears to have been only a small fraction of it. Would be fun to see in the summer and/or with snow on the ground.
8. New Jersey is kind of a dump. At least what we saw anyway. I'm sure there are nicer parts but North Bergen and what we saw driving through Hoboken leave a little to be desired.
7. There are always a s*** ton of people in Times Sqaure. I would be interested to find out what percentage of them were true New Yorkers and what percentage were tourists. I can't see any resident in their right mind routinely passing through there unless they had work obligations.
6. Rockefeller Center was interesting. I would like to tour the NBC studios sometime and get to the top of a building (either Rockefeller or Empire State) the next time I go, but it wasn't first on my list this time.
5. The World Trade Center site is going to be really incredible when finished. Right now, it is missing information. Soon, people that will be visiting will not have experienced or been alive when the events occurred. They are building a museum so this should improve.
4. The subway system was pretty incredible. It is quite amazing how impressive the logistics of the whole operation are. It was fun to learn how it operated and get a good feel for how millions of people commute on a daily basis. When I go again I will stay within walking distance of a subway station and the whole trip should prove to be much easier.
3. New York City doesn't have to be expensive. There are plenty of people that call NYC home that live on small salaries and wages. I quickly learned that these people probably do not buy rounds of jager bombs or eat at Dylan's Prime, but everyone deserves a learning experience. You would not have the need or the desire probably to own a car in New York. Public transportation actually works pretty effectively there. There are certainly places to eat and get groceries that aren't all that different in price from here.
2. Brooklyn and the bridge itself are pretty special. I could live in Brooklyn. The parts I saw anyway were much more low key yet at the same time just minutes away from the city. The bridge offers tremendous views of Manhattan and we were lucky enough to walk across twice at dusk. There really is no skyline that compares with that of Manhattan's.
1. The Pinstripe Bowl, the reason the trip was made, was a pretty cool experience even with the loss by the Cyclones. The "table-gating" beforehand with ISU fans was great and Yankee Stadium is a surprisingly good place to watch a football game. Paul Rhoads certainly opened up some questions going into spring ball, but at the end of the day I think a lot higher of the Pinstripe Bowl than I did going in. It was really a first-class bowl game and through a little Twitter-stalking I think the players thoroughly enjoyed themselves as well. I probably would not make a repeat appearance next season but would consider it down the road if the Big XII tie-in was still in tact.
In conclusion, I had never really considered New York as a place I wanted to visit. After being there, I definitely want to go back. There is enough to do there to take up several trips. As with Vegas, I think each time you go you get a sense of familiarity and things go a little smoother. The next time would be a blast without the pressure of having to see everything. I'd really like to get off the tourist track and see a little bit more of how the New Yorkers live.
10. Chicago-style pizza is superior to New York-style pizza. The best piece of pizza on the trip may have been from small shop at 10:30 in the morning. I wish I would have visited more of those shops during the trip. Grimaldi's Pizza is vastly overrated and I have concluded that coal-oven pizza is not my thing.
9. Central Park is very unique. It really is just as the movies and shows and pictures depict it. It is quite something to have this giant park right in the middle of the city. We went through what I thought was a lot of it, but after looking at a map appears to have been only a small fraction of it. Would be fun to see in the summer and/or with snow on the ground.
8. New Jersey is kind of a dump. At least what we saw anyway. I'm sure there are nicer parts but North Bergen and what we saw driving through Hoboken leave a little to be desired.
7. There are always a s*** ton of people in Times Sqaure. I would be interested to find out what percentage of them were true New Yorkers and what percentage were tourists. I can't see any resident in their right mind routinely passing through there unless they had work obligations.
6. Rockefeller Center was interesting. I would like to tour the NBC studios sometime and get to the top of a building (either Rockefeller or Empire State) the next time I go, but it wasn't first on my list this time.
5. The World Trade Center site is going to be really incredible when finished. Right now, it is missing information. Soon, people that will be visiting will not have experienced or been alive when the events occurred. They are building a museum so this should improve.
4. The subway system was pretty incredible. It is quite amazing how impressive the logistics of the whole operation are. It was fun to learn how it operated and get a good feel for how millions of people commute on a daily basis. When I go again I will stay within walking distance of a subway station and the whole trip should prove to be much easier.
3. New York City doesn't have to be expensive. There are plenty of people that call NYC home that live on small salaries and wages. I quickly learned that these people probably do not buy rounds of jager bombs or eat at Dylan's Prime, but everyone deserves a learning experience. You would not have the need or the desire probably to own a car in New York. Public transportation actually works pretty effectively there. There are certainly places to eat and get groceries that aren't all that different in price from here.
2. Brooklyn and the bridge itself are pretty special. I could live in Brooklyn. The parts I saw anyway were much more low key yet at the same time just minutes away from the city. The bridge offers tremendous views of Manhattan and we were lucky enough to walk across twice at dusk. There really is no skyline that compares with that of Manhattan's.
1. The Pinstripe Bowl, the reason the trip was made, was a pretty cool experience even with the loss by the Cyclones. The "table-gating" beforehand with ISU fans was great and Yankee Stadium is a surprisingly good place to watch a football game. Paul Rhoads certainly opened up some questions going into spring ball, but at the end of the day I think a lot higher of the Pinstripe Bowl than I did going in. It was really a first-class bowl game and through a little Twitter-stalking I think the players thoroughly enjoyed themselves as well. I probably would not make a repeat appearance next season but would consider it down the road if the Big XII tie-in was still in tact.
In conclusion, I had never really considered New York as a place I wanted to visit. After being there, I definitely want to go back. There is enough to do there to take up several trips. As with Vegas, I think each time you go you get a sense of familiarity and things go a little smoother. The next time would be a blast without the pressure of having to see everything. I'd really like to get off the tourist track and see a little bit more of how the New Yorkers live.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
ISU Basketball Rankings for 1/4/12
I like writing these while watching the games, so once again, tonight's game against Texas isn't included. However, fueled by a good first half defensive showing and prodigious offensive output (with the notable exception of free throws), Iowa States rankings should improve.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 83 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
Revisiting last week's prediction - Bubu Palo has played a little more (40.2 percent of minutes vs. 40 percent) but more importantly, his usage is up over the last three games (20.1 percent of possessions used vs. 19.3). I predicted this would help Iowa State's turnover percentage on defense. It doesn't appear to have had an effect (18.3 vs. 18.5).
However, Bubu's fouls against has risen to 7.0 per 40 minutes of play. This is the best on ISU (Royce White is second at 6.0) and good for 25th nationally. This stat plays into one of the four factors - free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This stat has increased from .437 just a couple of weeks ago up to .455, good for 32nd in the country. Why would this be important? It means the team is getting the opportunity to score with the time stopped. Unfortunately for Bubu, the added play seems to have had an adverse effect. He's banged up with a wrist injury and seems to be a step slower than earlier this year. His minutes are up 15% over last year and usage is up 35%.
A little qualitative bonus note - it seems like Iowa State has figured out how to allow Royce White bring the ball up the court. It was effective tonight (vs. Texas) against man defense. The big man guarding White had to come out to him at the top of the lane and allowed White to either penetrate or kick to a shooter if the big man got help. It continued to stink against zone, where the big man can hang back in the paint and White was picked up by a guard. Also the zone allows more rotation to cover the shooters and minimizes the passing lanes. ISU needs to be quick to adapt to changing defenses to continue this effectiveness.
Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 83 (8th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (6-12 in Big XII)
Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)
Revisiting last week's prediction - Bubu Palo has played a little more (40.2 percent of minutes vs. 40 percent) but more importantly, his usage is up over the last three games (20.1 percent of possessions used vs. 19.3). I predicted this would help Iowa State's turnover percentage on defense. It doesn't appear to have had an effect (18.3 vs. 18.5).
However, Bubu's fouls against has risen to 7.0 per 40 minutes of play. This is the best on ISU (Royce White is second at 6.0) and good for 25th nationally. This stat plays into one of the four factors - free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This stat has increased from .437 just a couple of weeks ago up to .455, good for 32nd in the country. Why would this be important? It means the team is getting the opportunity to score with the time stopped. Unfortunately for Bubu, the added play seems to have had an adverse effect. He's banged up with a wrist injury and seems to be a step slower than earlier this year. His minutes are up 15% over last year and usage is up 35%.
A little qualitative bonus note - it seems like Iowa State has figured out how to allow Royce White bring the ball up the court. It was effective tonight (vs. Texas) against man defense. The big man guarding White had to come out to him at the top of the lane and allowed White to either penetrate or kick to a shooter if the big man got help. It continued to stink against zone, where the big man can hang back in the paint and White was picked up by a guard. Also the zone allows more rotation to cover the shooters and minimizes the passing lanes. ISU needs to be quick to adapt to changing defenses to continue this effectiveness.
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