When is the last time your Iowa State Cyclones have been only a 12 point underdog ON THE ROAD to a top-15 opponent? Sorry, this was a rhetorical question and I don't really have the answer off the top of my head. Maybe in 2002 against Oklahoma? Anyway, on to the game.
I really feel good about this game from a Cyclone standpoint. Kansas State is the type of team that will play really close ball games. The last two seasons I have been downright pissed walking out of Arrowhead Stadium losing to these guys. I have to hand it to Bill Snyder though. He will go down as one of the best college football coaches of all time. His teams always play disciplined and fundamental, which really speaks to his coaching considering the amount of junior college players he recruits. Here is the analysis.
When Cyclones have the ball:
ISU has to get the ball moving again to keep the defense off the field. It is supposed to be rainy and possibly windy. If its not terribly windy I see the Cyclones throwing a lot of bubble screens to Jarvis West and company. Look for Albert Gary to get looks over the middle and assuming Josh Lenz is back Jared Barnett will have a 3rd down receiver. To be honest I think Rhoads and Herman have a few tricks in the playbook they have yet to show. When the Cyclones got down against the Sooners I felt they were playing awfully close to the vest and I started to wonder if maybe Rhoads was holding onto something for this game. Kansas State is tough against the run. Jared Barnett will have to throw for 250+ for the Cyclones to win. Advantage: Kansas State
When Kansas State has the ball:
They can run and run it well especially with their quarterback. ISU has, according to stats, struggled against the run at times. However, ISU is playing their best defensive football of the season. Add in the fact that KSU can become, at times, one dimensional and ISU's best players are linebackers AJ Klein and Jake Knott and KSU could be in trouble. One thing ISU needs to look out for is the reverse. Oklahoma gained about 80 yards on just two reverse plays last Saturday. I really hope Wally shoves eight in the box and leaves our corners on an island. Advantage: Push
Special Teams:
I have been incredibly impressed by ISU's special teams (excluding the kicking game). They seem to block extremely well on both punt returns and kick returns. I really think they will break one at some point and maybe this is that game. Kicking, however, reared its ugly head again against Oklahoma. They brought their go to play (the missed PAT) out of the playbook again and I'm not a big fan of it. Really if it wasn't for the kicking field goals part I would say ISU might have an edge. However it is a HUGE part and thus Kansas State gets the edge.
Prediction: I really think ISU can win this game. It wouldn't surprise me one bit. Kansas State has won A LOT of close close games. Are they due to lose a close one? If this game was in Ames I would be all for picking the upset. Its not and I think the Clones will lose a close game.
Kansas State 16 ISU 13
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