Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Texans 2012 Draft Recap

The Texans looked to address some needs and added some depth in the 2012 draft.  I'm still surprised they didn't look at a tackle.  They must feel strongly about Rashad Butler. He hasn't been a starter before, but has played alright as a backup.  The position is really thin right now.  I still like picking tackles, then letting them slide to guard if they don't pan out.

Now that the Texans are good, they've found themselves with players that fit their systems nicely.  Because they're up against the salary cap, they're now finding in-kind replacements for players.  It's the cliche that great organizations don't rebuild, they reload. 

The Texans have also started targeting players that have fallen because of injury or suspension.  They're looking for first or second round value in the middle rounds.  I'm glad to see they've come off their stance that players have to be squeeky clean, it opens up the available pool greatly.

1st Round - Whitney Mercilus - DE - Illinois
Mercilus will play rush linebacker in the Texans 3-4.  I haven't heard much bad about this player, except that he only produced one year.  With redshirts and most good players leaving as soon as they can, I don't think it'll be unusual for players to only have one good year of production.  Especially at positions like this, athleticism trumps experience.  

Quarterback pressure was a skill for the Texans last year, but they've added another rush specialist.  I think there are a couple things at play here.  One, more pressure on the QB takes it off the cornerbacks.  I don't think the CBs were any better last year, they just didn't have to defend as long.  (Another reason I think they should keep trying for more corners.)  Also, look at the quarterbacks in the division - Andrew Luck, Colts, Jake Locker, Titans, and Blaine Gabbart, Jags.  Their pre-snap reads and progression reads won't be very good, especially with a hand in their face.  Like this pick.  Replaces Mario Williams.

3rd Round - DeVier Posey - WR - Ohio State
Posey will replace Jacoby Jones on the depth chart, but I'd imagine they'd like to see him line up outside opposite Andre Johnson.  I like Kevin Walter as a slot receiver better than a wide-out so if this works, it'd be a great win for the Texans.  I wasn't so sure about trading out of the second round, but they made the extra 3rd and 4th round picks work.  

Obviously, the Texans don't think they need a second impact receiver on the team.  I'm worried about this because Johnson is getting old.  He missed a bunch of time last year, so it would have been nice to see them go for a 1a type guy.  They thought Posey would have gone higher without the memorabilia thing so this was a value pick for them.

3rd Round - Brandon Brooks - G - Miami
Brooks is a big, big boy.  Somewhere between 340 and three hundred and seventy pounds.  He isn't the prototypical zone-blocking guard.  Way too big.  Most are closer to 300 pounds.  But at 6'5", he could drop weight and still be a load.  My guess here is they try him at right tackle (not sure if he played any tackle in college or not).  Really no loss here.  If he works, they can start him at a pretty important position.  If he doesn't, he should still be able to compete at the guard spots.  Didn't care for it at first, because I thought they should try for a tackle, but this just might work.

4th Round - Ben Jones - C - Georgia
Another pick I didn't understand at first.  The Texans signed Chris Meyers to an extension in the off season. Jones sure looks like a specific fit at center.  Prototypical size for a center, started about 50 games at center in college.  I think they'l try to stretch this pick too, and work him at guard.  Perhaps they felt he didn't need any coaching up at center, which would free all his time to work at guard.  If this is indeed the case, the pick is very solid.  However, if Jones ends up as a single position backup, this pick would be very disappointing, considering the Texans had only taken one guaranteed starter before him.

4th Round - Keyshawn Martin - WR - Michigan St.
First off, great GREAT name for a wide receiver.  I'm inclined to endorse this pick on that alone.  The Texans cut Jacoby Jones and Martin has a lot of experience at punt returner.  That he has a chance to make the depth chart as a third receiver is icing.  A "starter," even in special teams is a good pick for the fourth round.  Consider too that the Texans may go for more four receiver sets after the loss of second tight end Joel Dreesen.  Martin could see the field right off the bat.

4th Round - Jared Crick - DT - Nebraska
Hate the Cornhuskers, love this pick.  Crick was a huge name a couple years ago.  Great drafting teams identify talent, and Crick had it.  Slowed by injuries, this pick has the possibility to be a HUGE steal.  He'll play DE in the 3-4, opposite JJ Watt.  And wow, he's got size like Watt, 6'6" and 285, these guys could anchor (pun intended) the line for years to come.  Love this pick in the 4th.  Great possibility to come in and push out Antonio Smith this year, saving the team some cash.

5th Round - Randy Bullock - K - Texas A&M
Well, there's got to be one.  Kubes (that's what I call him), loves him some Aggies.  And this portly fellow is as Aggie as they come.  Zero other kickers on the roster, so I guess he's got the job.  I don't remember him making big kicks or knocking them in from 50 yards.  TAMU fans don't either.  Best case situation, he's a perfectly invisible kicker.  Worst case, he makes it through the summer as the kicker and destroys the Texans season in a meltdown.  At least they didn't draft him in the 3rd???

6th Round - Nick Mondek - T - Purdue
Last year's seventh round pick, a tackle, is still on the roster, so who knows?  Numbers show a good size, wasn't graded to be drafted.  Texans haven't had any luck with their late round picks in general, and lineman specifically.  It was too late to try to take a right tackle to compete.  An incumbent backup will always beat a sixth round selection (cue plate of crow?) so I'm not expecting much.  Would have liked a project in the defensive secondary to come in and work in Wade's system.  I pretty much view Wade as a defensive miracle worker - if anyone could make an undersized, 4.4 type cornerback work, it would be him.

Closing Thoughts / How I Predicted
The safe way to draft, as I see it, is from the football out.  Quarterback, if you need one, then offensive line, defensive line, then running backs, linebackers, then skill players, then special teams contributors.  The lines contribute every play, and are cheaper in the long run, especially if the pick doesn't work out.  That said, there are a couple positions that can contribute, even if they are misses - offensive tackle and cornerback.  Tackles can play the left side or right side, and can drop down to guard.  It might be embarrassing to pick a tackle early and have them drop to guard, but at least they can contribute for years.  Same with cornerbacks, most safeties started as cornerback prospects that dropped to safety.  I assume, I'm not looking it up.

Well, so how did the Texans do?  Fine.  Much like they do every year.  Solid picks, nothing that rocks the Richter scale.  Unfortunately, no one that makes pro bowls either.  Every pick has a chance to make the depth chart, but no one would be surprised if none did.  I guess the great teams build on solid drafts, but the Texans don't have the benefit of the doubt.  One decent season does not make a great team.  They don't get the benefit of the doubt yet.

I missed on the first round.  I thought they'd take an offensive tackle, and also didn't think they'd address linebacker depth in the first round.  They didn't take a CB, which I thought would have been a good and safe pick.  Also, I think they're getting assumptive thinking they can pull a fullback out of free air.  Either TE or FB or both will be thin or weak this year.

What did I nail?  Two WR.  One as a returner, only it seems the Texans were more serious about filling this need.  Guard (tackle) - I hope they'll try Brooks at tackle, but he should compete for either guard spot if not.  The need I saw at linebacker was for depth so I don't completely understand the first pick.  I thought there'd be a chance they'd take a DE and they did.  I win, I guess.

Solid, unspectacular draft for the Texans.  Nothing here likely makes them better this year.  Again.








Monday, April 23, 2012

Texans 2012 Draft Outlook

It's draft time again!  And with that, some predictions.  After too many Gary Kubiak drafts, a few things are certain.  He will draft safely - no skill players in the first round, no trading up, no reaches for potential until 5th at the earliest.  He will draft players I haven't heard of - of course last year J.J. Watt worked out pretty well, and Duane Brown before that.  He will draft at least one TE.  He will draft small, quick WR or CB in the late rounds that won't even compete for the return spot.

IF he strayed from this at all, Houston would be a happy place.  And with the talent base they have FINALLY built, its time for the to take some risks to get a playmaker.  But I don't think they will, and my picks below reflect that.

Losses
Traded DeMeco Ryans
Free Agency Mario Williams
Released Eric Winston
Released Lawrence Vickers
Released Matt Leinart

Free Agency Mike Brisiel
Free Agency Jason Allen
Free Agency Joel Dreesen


Pick ups
Re-signed RB Arian Foster
Re-signed Chris Myers
Signed Quintin Demps
Signed Brady James
Re-Signed Tim Dobbins

The Texans had some major losses over the off-season, but I'm not concerned about the "big" one.  Mario could have been a nice player, but the cost would have been too high.  Even with the nice start to last season, he's always been more potential than production.  Brooks Reed and Conner Barwin kept the pressure up in his absence.  With Wade Phillips ability to find defensive talent, the Texans should be able to find some depth in the draft.

I'm afraid DeMeco Ryans will be quite missed.  When he missed time in 2010, the defense fell apart.  He called the plays and was captain of the team.  What's truly sad is that even though he was hurt, he was playing the most physical football of his career.  He was playing with a swagger and HITTING people.  Now he'll be replaced with Brian Cushing who has struggled with the additional burden of play calling in the past or Tim Dobbins.  Dobbins was with Phillips for a year in San Diego, maybe Wade knows something we don't.

Losing two-fifths of your offensive line is an issue.  While none of the linemen were elite, they were obviously  a great group together.  Rashard Butler was a utility lineman, able to fill in anywhere, which is very beneficial, allowing the other lineman to continue playing their given positions.

The Texans lost their FB for a second straight year.  They're getting risky with a very important offensive position to them.  They also lost Joel Dreesen, a very solid 2nd TE who played a lot with the two TE sets, and effective backup for Owen Daniels.  They've tried finding others in the draft and haven't been effective.

Here's what I think they'll look at, in order.
Offensive tackle - you wouldn't take a guard with the first pick, so I'll assume they look for a tackle early.
Wide Receiver (again) - it seems every year this position is on the list.  The Texans inexplicably kept Jacoby Jones around, let's hope they don't feel that's enough.
Cornerback (again) - every year for this one too.  Need someone (anyone) to keep Kareem Jackson from starting.
Guard - 4th round would be appropriate here, and should still be able to compete to start.
Linebacker - The Texans can use depth at both inside and outside linebacker.
Fullback - James Casey won't cut it as a full-time fullback.
Tight End - Kubiak loves drafting tight ends so I imagine we'll see one somewhere
Wide Receiver - I figure there'll be a couple WRs drafted, with one later to compete for a return job

Other possibilities -
Defensive tackle - at some point, the Texans will look for a proper 3-4 nose tackle.
Quarterback - Kubiak likes to draft a QB every year or two, but I'm not feeling it this year with the way T.J. Yates played last year
Defensive End - I've never thought Antonio Smith was a long-term play.  They could look for another another young DE/OLB
Safety - I can't remember when the Texans have drafted a safety, so I doubt it will happen this year.  It seems the smart play would be to draft cornerbacks and linebackers and drop them to safety if it doesn't work out.


Monday, March 12, 2012

ISU Faces Brutal Draw

Well, crap.  ISU found themselves in that dreaded 8/9 matchup.  Thats tough.  Facing the defending National Champions?  Ouch.  Lets look at how Fred Hoiberg's first trip to the tournament is shaping up.

Danny Sheridan Line-- UCONN by 2
Kenpom-- ISU by 1
Tourney Challenge-- 69.5 pct have picked UCONN

How we got here...

Its been mentioned numerous times that Connecticut is the defending national champ.  A championship caliber team typically doesn't end up in the 8/9 matchup and this is no exception.  To be honest, Iowa State has the better resume.  UConn at times was on tournament life support and won games at the right time just to get into the field.  Connecticut is a team many picked to repeat as champs because of two NBA lottery picks in Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond.  However, chemistry and playing team basketball has not always been their forte.  Many have criticized this team of playing AAU basketball and the results have shown.

Iowa State struggled to find chemistry early in the year and needed a pep talk from former Cyclone Dedric Willoboughy to get things turned around.  The 3rd place team in the Big 12 typically doesn't end up in the 8/9 matchup by I guess thats where Iowa State lands.  Using the "eye-test" would show Iowa State is playing better than their seed indicates.  Iowa State has really only struggled in 3 conference games.  In those games they struggled to find their shot, yet in two of them still had a chance to win the game.  This matchup, to me, resembles more of the 4/5 second (third) round matchup.

Why Connecticut will win...



  • Connecticut has size down low.  If they are able to control the boards and get offensive rebounds ISU may be in trouble.  Iowa State's defense has never been accused of being stingy and allowing Connecticut to get 2nd chance points will dramatically decrease their chances.  
  • Chris Babb will keep one of the guards in check.  That will most likely be Jeremy Lamb.  Connecticut will win if the "other" guard goes off, most likely Shabazz Napier.  Scott Christopherson and Chris Allen are by no means lock-down defenders.  If Bubu Palo contributes significant minutes it is because their guards are going off.  Palo doesn't contribute much offensively.  Advantage UCONN.
  • Its better to be lucky than good.  At least that is what I have heard.  UCONN has been known for not defending the 3 this year.  ISU will get those shots.  If they aren't going in it could be a long day for the Cyclones.
Why the Cyclones will win...

  • They score 70 or more points.  Iowa State has only lost one game this year when scoring more than 70.  UCONN may shoot a higher percentage but not enough to compensate for Iowa State's 3 point attempts.
  • Connecticut's 3 point defense has been poor this season.  That makes ISU salivate.  If they right people are getting the right looks the Cyclones will win.  Attention Royce:  You are not a 3 point shooter.
  • Royce White will stay out of foul trouble.  Iowa State doesn't need him to score.  They need him to rebound and distribute.  In road and neutral games Royce is averaging over 12 rebounds a game.  
  • Chris Babb will disrupt Jeremy Lamb.  It has been amazing to watch his defense all year.  If Lamb can't get his share who will pick up the slack?  
Looking Ahead...

The winner is lucky enough to get Kentucky (most likely) in the "3rd round".  Goody!  Interesting enough Kentucky's only really vulnerable to teams that can shoot it and have a decent big guy.  See: Iowa State.  Do I think Iowa State can take them?  I've seen crazier things, but they have to get there first.  This regional sets up very nicely for the winner of this four-team tourney.  I am not too scared of Witchita State and Indiana.  That could set up a regional final with Duke?  I honestly think the winner of this four-team pod, no matter who, goes on to the Final Four.

The Pick...

Iowa State could get absolutely slaughtered Thursday night.  Everyone is picking UCONN.  However, the motto for all things ISU this year has been "expect the unexpected".  Whether its beating the #2 team in football or beating Kansas at home in basketball this university has experienced some of the greatest games in their history.  Why not add another one or two to that list?

Iowa State 73 Connecticut 68

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Selection Sunday is Here!

It has been seven LONG years since Selection Sunday has meant something to Cyclone fans.  The last time ISU was in POSTSEASON play was in 2005 when I was a senior in high school.  They got put in the dreaded 8/9 matchup and escaped the first round only to get drubbed by eventual national champion-North Carolina.  As Yogi Bera would say "Deja Vu all over again?" Let's hope not.

Iowa State is once again staring that 8/9 matchup square in the face.  This is not a good year to possibly face the likes of Kentucky/Syracuse or UNC in the 3rd round.  Unfortunately, the two most vulnerable one and two seeds are from the Big XII so it limits ISU's potential for a "good" matchup in Round 3.  Yes, I realize there is a very real possibility that ISU doesn't even win the 2nd round matchup.  As Scotty C says "We aren't in this for a participation award."  Are all of the bracketologists correct?  Let's look at the facts.

Iowa State:
Record: 22-10
RPI: 33
Top 50: 5-7
SOS: 42


Lets look at some of the team's in position for the #7 seed.

New Mexico:
Record: 26-6
RPI: 30
Top 50: 6-3
SOS: 103

Saint Mary's
Record: 25-5
RPI: 29
Top 50: 4-3
SOS: 113

San Diego State
Record: 24-7
RPI: 28
Top 50: 6-6
SOS: 67

Gonzaga:
Record: 25-6
RPI: 25
Top 50: 6-4
SOS: 81


IF the committee truly uses the "eye test" ISU should get a bump over one of these teams.  I just don't see them getting seeded below all of them.  Maybe these teams are competing for an 8 seed?  Honestly right now, with the exception of the Texas game, ISU is playing 5 or 6 seed basketball.  Hopefully the committee takes note and gets them in the 7/10 matchup.

My prediction:  Iowa State will be the 7 seed in the East Region and play against Purdue.  This is a hopeful prediction.  Hopefully Lunardi is wrong.  6.5 more hours!

Saturday, March 10, 2012

NCAA Tourney Seeding Process May Yield Several Mistakes

According to the BPI found on ESPN Insider here is what the S-Curve should look like by their standards.


SeedFirst rowSecondThirdFourth
1KENTUCKY*SyracuseOHIO STATE*NORTH CAROLINA*
2Michigan StateKansasDukeMISSOURI*
3Wichita StateMEMPHISBaylorWisconsin
4SAINT LOUIS*LOUISVILLE*IndianaGeorgetown
5MarquetteFloridaGonzagaVanderbilt
6NEW MEXICO*CREIGHTONKansas StateAlabama
7TexasMichiganUNLVVirginia
8TempleCaliforniaFlorida StateIowa State
9ConnecticutMURRAY STATEBELMONTCincinnati
10San Diego StateARIZONA*SAINT MARY'SMiami (FL)
11LONG BEACH STATE*PurdueWest VirginiaHARVARD
12Southern MissNorth Carolina StateBrigham YoungLa Salle
13VCUNorthwestern/XavierSeton Hall/IonaNEW MEXICO STATE*
14AKRON*SOUTH DAKOTA STATEDAVIDSONMONTANA
15LEHIGHLOYOLA (MD)LAMAR*UNC-ASHEVILLE
16DETROITVERMONTLIU BROOKLYN/WESTERN KENTUCKYNORFOLK STATE*/MVSU*

You can see that there is some discrepancy between some of our "expert" bracketologists and these rankings.  These rankings take the entire season into account.  Unfortunately it looks like the BPI is consistent with other predictions for the Cyclones.  I am really hoping they can get off that 8/9 line.  ESPN also looked at the most overseeded and underseeded teams.

Overseeded teamProjected seedBPI seedUnderseeded teamProjected seedBPI seed
Michigan37Memphis83
Florida State48Saint Louis84
Saint Mary's710Texas127
San Diego State710Belmont149
You will see once again that the computers are loving Texas.  I'm not sure about a "7" seed for them when Iowa State appears to have a much better resume and is projected for an 8.  I guess Texas did go 2-1 against ISU.  I can see Michigan being seeded well above their ability.  I could even see them bowing out early.  Florida State kind of puzzles me.  Maybe the computers can see through Duke and UNC and know that those wins weren't as good as they seemed.

Just a little food for thought when the brackets are revealed tomorrow afternoon.