Sunday, December 18, 2011

ISU Basketball Rankings for 12/18/11

These don't include today's game, but it won't help the rankings any.  Statistics aside, if this team doesn't start playing more consistently and giving up big scoring runs, they won't be competitive in the Big XII.

 Ken Pomeroy rankings
Rank - 77 (9th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 15-16 (5-13 in Big XII)
Aggregate projected record - 16-15 (7-11 in Big XII)

Sagarin rankings
Rank - 68 (7th out of 10 in the Big XII)
Record by projected wins and losses - 17-14 (7-11 in Big XII)

It's remarkable how close these two projections are.  I think ISU fans should be happy with a record like this.  A trip to the big dance is unlikely, and this would likely mean a NIT berth.  

Anyone who follows, knows the significance of the four factors.  They are effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebound percentage, and the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.  ISU ranks very well in all categories on offense, however, they are lacking when it comes to defense in one particular category - turnover percentage.  In fact, ISU only causes a turnover on 18.5% of their opponents possessions, ranking 283rd in NCAA Div 1.  

Here's my take - ISU doesn't have a true point guard, that's obvious.  While most will focus on the effect on the offensive side of the game, it affects the defense as well.  Without a true point guard presence, there's no on-ball pressure in the half court.  I hesitate to say that most turnovers come from the point guard position because I don't have the stats to back it up, but it's safe to say for most teams (ISU an unfortunate exception), the point guard handles the ball more than the other players.  Thus, on a per-possession basis, it's not unreasonable to think the point guard position would have more turnovers.  

Here's my solution - play Bubu Palo more.  Again, no stats to back me up (what's up Ken?), but it looks like he gives more pressure on the defensive end, not to mention on offense (next week's update?).  Scholarship or not, he needs to play more.   

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